When it comes to last year’s preseason expectations, the NL East showed tremendous strength with four of its five teams ultimately exceeding their win totals. The debacle in Queens stood as the lone exception. That’s a whole other story onto itself. Marginal clubs like the Marlins and Nationals finished the season ahead of schedule according to the futures markets while the Phillies squeezed ahead of their total by virtue of another late-season surge. And that Philly heater brought an early postseason knockout of divisional champion Atlanta once again. Will there be a changing of the guard in the 2024 NL East, or are the Braves still head and shoulders better than the field?

The blood, sweat, and tears continue with the BetCrushers’ 5th Annual Divisional Previews & Futures outlook for the 2024 MLB season. As always, we appreciate your support! Are they too much? Maybe. But the ends continue to justify the means, and we hope you’re able to make a few bucks along the way. (Win totals referenced in each team’s header are courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook, a widely-available sportsbook in the U.S.)

2023 Division Champion: Atlanta Braves

2023 NL East Standings

1. Atlanta Braves (104-58)
2. Philadelphia Phillies (90-72)
3. Miami Marlins (84-78)
4. New York Mets (75-87)
5. Washington Nationals (71-91)

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Atlanta Braves 2024 Win Total: Open 101.5

2023 Result: Over 94.5 (104-58 / Pythag: 101)

While the Dodgers took the crown for having the largest offseason, Alex Anthopolous and the Atlanta Braves had the most complex. 104 wins and six straight NL East titles are no joke. But falling at the hands of division rival Philadelphia once again after crushing the regular season left a bitter taste in their mouths. Naturally, AA’s madness came with a method. If you want a good rundown of Atlanta’s flurry of activity, Michael Baumann did a great job describing exactly what the Braves were up to this winter. Was it enough to push the reigning NL MVP and his cohort of All-Stars back to the World Series though?

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• A Bummer (RP – LHP)
• J Kowar (RP – RHP)
• R Lopez (RP – RHP)
• J Kelenic (OF)
• D Fletcher (INF)
• R Kerr (RP – LHP)
• C Sale (SP – LHP)
• L Guillorme (INF)

Subtractions:

• E Rosario (OF)
• J Chavez (RP – RHP)
• B Hand (RP – LHP)
• C McHugh (RP – RHP)
• K Pillar (OF)
• M Soroka (SP – RHP)
• J Shuster (SP – RHP)
• K Wright (SP – RHP)
• M Tonkin (RP – RHP)
• K Yates (RP – RHP)
• J Kowar (RP – RHP)
• V Grissom (INF)

BetCrushers 2024 Win Projection Range: 93 – 111

— Position Players —

Forget about the disappointing playoffs for a few minutes. Atlanta’s position players amassed 39.7 WAR during the regular season, a figure more than 5 wins higher than the second-best Dodgers. To put it in perspective, 39.7 WAR was the MLB’s highest mark since the 2019 Astros exploded with 42.0. And you’ll have to go back to the 2001 Mariners to find anything like what the Braves or Astros recently delivered in this regard.

ATL Position Player All-Stars

	1st Half wRC+		Season wRC+	WAR	WAR Rank @ Pos.
S Murphy (C)	166		129	4.2	2nd
M Olson (1B)*	144		160	6.7	2nd
O Albies (2B)*	116		124	4.0	5th
A Riley (3B)*	106		127	5.2	2nd
O Arcia (SS)	109		99	2.3	14th
R Acuna Jr. (OF)*	164		170	8.3	1st

Having your entire infield represented at the All-Star Game is pretty damn impressive. And their plus-one from the outfield isn’t too shabby himself. Catcher Sean Murphy’s second half swoon and Orlando Arcia falling prey to a bevy of stronger shortstops kept those two from holding on for All-MLB Team recognition. You shouldn’t count on Arcia backing up a career-high WAR given his track record though. Incoming depth pieces David Fletcher and left-handed hitting Luis Guillorme add suitable fielding across the infield but their bats are suspect. They get the honor of replacing Nicky Lopez and Vaughn Grissom off the bench.

Sean Murphy presents an interesting case of “did he already peak?” Keep in mind that the All-Star catcher was on a tear before tweaking his hamstring on June 17th. Murphy didn’t get back into action until a pinch hitting opportunity on the 22nd but did not return behind the plate until June 25th. Although he avoided the IL, you have to wonder if hitting .208/.343/.411 from June 22nd onward was strongly influenced by the hamstring injury. A 1-WAR deduction is on deck if Sean can’t replicate 120+ wRC+ production and framing grades continue to decline. A healthier Travis d’Arnaud helps the Braves catcher group repeat as a top five unit.

An Epic Encore?

So what should we expect from the rest of this high impact crew in 2024? Let’s start at the top with reigning National League MVP Ronald Acuna Jr. Assume that he won’t steal 73 bases again or maintain a super low 11.4% strikeout rate. How about that extraterrestrial .337/.416/.596 slash line? Even after shaving something off his peak metrics, Acuna still projects as a 40-homer/50-stolen base threat with a .400 OBP. Maybe not quite 8.3 WAR but pretty close to it. Realistically, only injury has a puncher’s chance at derailing a 7+ WAR MVP defense campaign. Or that Ohtani guy who jumped leagues this winter. As for his All-MLB Team compatriots:

• 1B Matt Olson – Career-best .283 batting average, .389 OBP, and 54 home runs are tough acts to follow, let alone the 127 runs and 139 RBI that came with it. At minimum, I’ll pull back Olson’s strong splits against right-handed pitching (178 wRC+).
• 2B Ozzie Albies – Aside from his 2017 rookie season and injury-shortened 2022, Ozzie is a dependable 3+ WAR player. Plate discipline, speed, and base running acumen are attributes that help the second baseman project out in a similar range as last season.
• 3B Austin Riley – Since becoming the everyday third baseman in 2021, Atlanta has benefitted from his strong defense – unless you’re more of a zone rating person – and .500+ slugging. Like Albies, Riley has a strong likelihood of finishing near the 4+ WAR range.

The bottom line: it’s brutally tough to back up insane numbers as a group even if several of the components come close. Each of them posted 90+ runs and 90+ RBI – a testament to their individual skillsets and how they feed off one another. Clearly the downside risk of not just diminished performance but lost time to injury is what guides a net decline of 2-4 WAR among these four outstanding players.

Center field is in good shape with former Rookie of the Year Michael Harris II roaming the turf. He did a lot right last year after setting such a high bar in 2022. Inevitable regression from a 137 wRC+ and .361 BABIP didn’t ding his value too much as greater playing time made up for it. Harris’ speed, reduced strikeout rate, and greater hard contact form a very solid floor to build from. Aging slugger Marcell Ozuna, on the other hand, delivered one of his every three years type of seasons and stands to lose any value that Harris gains. I’m standing pat with the team’s defense but downgrading the offense by several percentage points. Replicating a once in a decade performance comes with very low odds…even with this roster.

Moves Fit For a Roll of the Dice

If Ozuna at designated hitter is your “weak link” among eight of the nine lineup spots, what do we make of the left field position? Eddie Rosario’s bounceback season quietly contributed to Atlanta’s overall success. But when it came time to pick up his $9M option the price tag seemed a bit steep for a 32-year-old corner outfielder coming off of a five-year high 1.4 WAR. The math just didn’t add up. Instead, Anthopolous engaged in a complex string of events that landed former top prospect Jarred Kelenic from the Mariners.

From the Braves’ perspective, Seattle’s salary dump yielded a cheaper and younger replacement for Rosario. Well, kinda cheaper. But definitely younger. On the heels of the multi-player trade that brought Kelenic to Atlanta, Mike Pordhorzer made a strong case for the lefty outfielder to rack up more extra-base hits at his new home field. Unlocking more potential from a guy with 38% of last year’s hits coming as XBH now in a pitcher-friendly park could reduce the dropoff from Eddie Rosario’s farewell campaign. Plus the 24-year-old is under team control for five more seasons. This is definitely a move to keep an eye on over the coming years.

— Rotation —

That earlier All-MLB talk did not include First Team starting pitcher Spencer Strider. Don’t worry, this is his spot right here. Strider’s full season in the rotation was anything but a disappointment despite a clunky 3.86 ERA. Sub-3.00 FIP and xFIP are testament to a 2024 figure right around 3.00, especially after dealing a 4.84 K/BB ratio across 32 starts. 5.5 WAR is tough to repeat unless the 25-year-old ace stays healthy and continues to work past the 5th inning. You could see his maturation as a pitcher unfold with greater use of a filthy slider and deceptive changeup that pumped up a massive 18.9% swinging strike rate.

Manager Brian Snitker could use a little more luck with left-hander Max Fried after a season plagued by injuries. When healthy, Fried is another 6-inning workhorse with enough swing-and-miss stuff to complement a ground ball-heavy approach. His diverse five pitch arsenal produces weak contact fit for an ace. A healthy season should tack on 1.5+ WAR and more than offset any losses from Strider. 8-10 WAR out of these guys gets mighty close to what the 2023 rotation produced as a whole.

The Road to Improvement

Ageless curveballer Charlie Morton and 24-year-old Bryce Elder are pretty much locked into the rotation. Charlie definitely so after the club picked up his $20M option at the ripe age of 40. A 25% strikeout rate, 40% ground balls, and 4.00 ERA should get him close to last season’s 2.7 WAR. As for Elder, replacing his own value depends on whether the righty can produce another 30+ start season. He doesn’t miss bats like the others and fell into the hard contact trap as a heavy ground ball pitcher (49.8%). I already see some slight differences in opinion on Bryce’s second full season in the rotation, though the common bond is a mid-4.00s outlook.

AA’s busy winter ultimately resulted in moving on from Michael Soroka and Kyle Wright. These once-promising arms were shipped to the AL Central to make room on the roster after combining for just 13 starts and -0.5 WAR. Counterpunch: trading infielder prospect Vaughn Grissom to Boston for veteran southpaw Chris Sale after a decent comeback season. The lanky 34-year-old finally stayed healthy enough for the first time since 2019 to make 20 starts. Although Sale might not be at a point in his career where you can expect 150+ innings, it saves Atlanta from pushing Allan Winans and AJ Smith-Shawver into a featured role right off the bat.

21-year-old Smith-Shawver looked a bit raw and projects as an upper-4.00s pitcher after his .152 BABIP masked a 6.69 FIP/5.71 xFIP. On the flip side, Winans suffered a .348 BABIP en route to a 5.29 ERA. Each appeared in just 6 games last year so the Sale addition takes some heat off these two to produce right away. Plus Ian Anderson and Huascar Ynoa should return to action after working through Tommy John rehab. In the meantime, Chris Sale should carry forward high-3.00s effectiveness via a 4+ K/BB rate even if durability remains an underlying concern. This should be one of the Braves’ better rotations in recent seasons worthy of a 3-4 WAR bump, of course barring significant injury to their headliners.

— Bullpen —

By extending Joe Jimenez and Pierce Johnson right off the bat, AA eliminated most of the club’s offseason concerns with the bullpen. It was good enough to register the second-least losses (22) – also a testament to Atlanta’s prolific offense – and second-most saves (52) behind Cincinnati, interestingly enough. The righty-lefty combo of Raisel Iglesias and AJ Minter racked up 43 saves despite shedding 2.4 WAR from their dominant 2022 seasons. Granted, Iglesias only spent part of 2022 with the Braves. It just so happened to be an insane August and September that year. Raisel is in his mid-30s so you have to temper his outlook much like AJ’s.

Downsides include losing 1.6 WAR from Nick Anderson and Jesse Chavez, as well as uncertainty with Tyler Matzek returning from Tommy John surgery that capped off a disappointing 2022 season. Will late bloomer Ray Kerr be a factor? Regardless, what makes this bullpen tick is veteran depth. Jimenez and Johnson are back, although any expectation for Pierce to repeat his stellar second half is foolish. But the Atlanta relief unit potentially gets a big shot in the arm with former White Sox standout Aaron Bummer. The ground ball lefty is a horse when healthy and comes to town after posting a wacky 6.79 ERA. Bummer’s 3.58 ERA/3.51 xFIP were more in line with his track record and point towards a low-to-mid-3.00s rebound.

Bummer’s former teammate Reynaldo Lopez could be be a significant contributor in the bullpen too. Throw in the organization’s budding starting pitchers looking for innings and things get really interesting. Plus a durable rotation and dependable offense are good friends to a top-tier bullpen. There’s enough beef in this group to make their rating just a touch below last season’s top-five effort.

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Philadelphia Phillies 2024 Win Total: Open 89.5

2023 Result: Over 88.5 (90-72 / Pythag: 89)

Just when you thought this team couldn’t be any grittier than their epic run in 2022, the Phillies nearly matched its postseason success. If anything, they grinded their way into the playoffs to play spoiler to the Braves once again. It gave our boy D Nice some great October action at Citizens Bank Park, only to fall one game short of another World Series appearance. Instead, 2023’s team of destiny, the Arizona Diamondbacks assumed the NL Pennant in Philly’s place. President of Baseball Ops Dave Dombrowski was quieter this winter outside of re-signing Aaron Nola. Is there enough on board to run down Atlanta? Probably not. But make the playoffs as a wild card and stir up more trouble? Absolutely.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• S Turnbull (RHP)
• W Merrifield (INF/OF)

Subtractions:

• M Lorenzen (SP – RHP)
• C Kimbrel (RP – RHP)
• J Harrison (INF)
• R Hoskins (1B)

BetCrushers 2024 Win Projection Range: 83 – 93

— Position Players —

It’s an easy way out to call Philadelphia’s offense a rinse and repeat of the year before. A little more power, run scoring, and stolen bases resulted in 3 more wins and damn near the same path through the playoffs. Wild Card round sweep, a 3-1 series win over the Braves, and a sniff at the World Series after losing a tough Game 7 to Arizona. Turning to their speedy middle infielders to steal 61 of the club’s 141 bases paid off nicely as a complement to the league’s eighth-most home runs (220). That combination produced 796 runs, eighth-most in the majors. For what it’s worth, those 141 stolen bases were the eighth-most in the majors as well.

The balance between power and speed remains with this largely untouched roster. Starting with those aforementioned middle infielders, 2024 looks to be somewhat stable between an overachieving Bryson Stott and slow-starting Trea Turner. The shortstop’s 56% offensive turnaround from the first half of 2023 to the second half provides optimism for a 5-10% overall rebound. Plus the 30-year-old has a prime opportunity to erase an uncharacteristically big fielding deficit reflected by bad numbers in pretty much any attempt to quantify defense. Maybe Bryson Stott’s big leap from slashing .234/.295/.358 as a rookie to .280/.329/.419 in year two has staying power. A conservative 2024 with regression closer to league average still keeps this duo in the 7+ WAR tier.

Adding Power to the Equation

The first thing most of us think about with the Phillies offense is power. Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Nick Castellanos come to mind, although Trea Turner’s 26 bombs cannot be ignored. With Rhys Hoskins completely out of the picture, Harper has claimed the everyday first baseman job after returning from Tommy John surgery and acclimating to the position quite well. His slow start to the 2023 season paid off down the stretch as the veteran leader is expected to be right in that +40% offense range for a third straight season. Throw him into the Stott/Turner back-of-the-envelope calcultation and now we’re looking at a trio that should hold their collective value from 2023 to 2024.

An unsuspecting addition to the power conversation is left-handed hitting outfielder Brandon Marsh. The former Angels top prospect found his groove after settling in with the Phillies. Last year’s jump in production was massive (+36%) as Marsh’s plate discipline shot up and hard contact spiked by 10.5%. Is the 26-year-old truly a .384 BABIP talent? Perhaps not, but his spray distribution confirms him as a well above-average BABIP hitter. Swooping in to absorb Marsh’s potential 1+ WAR drop is Philly’s hammer, Kyle Schwarber. Manager Rob Thomson’s unorthodox approach to batting a boom-or-bust hitter in the leadoff spot is part of a master plan that worked. Conventional wisdom says that his career-low .209 BABIP will give way to a batting average above the Mendoza Line without any loss of my Southwest Ohio brethren’s raw power.

Nick Castellanos’ bat is somewhere between Harper’s and Schwarber’s when it comes to power and pure ability to get on base. It’s hard to characterize him as anything other than a plus corner outfield bat that shouldn’t be in the field. But he and Kyle can’t DH at the same time, so the Phillies continue to sacrifice defense for offense in right field – and justifiably so. There’s enough consistency and veteran leadership in this lineup to expect a third straight season of top-ten production at the plate.

Turning Over a New Leaf

Optimism for a new and improved outfield defense is very tangible after Johan Rojas’ post-ASB call-up to assume the center field position. The 23-year-old was touted as a speedy, excellent fielder with enough of a bat to hold his own. His jump from Double-A Reading to The Show was spectacular for a glove-first player. A 59-game sample with a .410 BABIP speaks to him actually being a bottom-of-the-order bat as his role presumably expands. When talking defense, however, Johan paves the way for a positive outfield unit with Brandon Marsh put in a more advantageous left field position and leaving just the one glaring hole in right. Between adding Marsh in 2022 and Rojas in 2023, the outfield defense continues to improve each season.

That leaves one glaring question in the field: catcher JT Realmuto. The star backstop looks to bury a 2023 campaign in which he hit at an eight-year low with fielding and base running about as poor. Fantasy baseball guru Paul Sporer still finds him to be one of the best with a caveat related to age:

J.T. Realmuto remains top of the class for SBs at catcher after lapping the field with 16 — 2nd place had 8. At age-33, the AVG might not recover (.252 was a career low) and he’s likely to stay in the bottom half of the order (86% of PA in 5th-6th-7th last yr), yet he is still a great bet for at least a 15 HR/10 SB campaign.

Catcher 2024 Fantasy Rankings – Paul Sporer – January 22, 2024

He’s a “Bankable Stud” per Sporer, and that’s without consideration for a defensive rebound. If Realmuto is going to gain value after a disappointing 1.5-WAR season, the improvement must come from behind the plate. To a degree, anyways. JT was still one of the best in controlling baserunners and blocking wild pitches. The special skill of pitch framing simply eluded the 3x All-Star. An easy way out is to chalk it up to variance and pencil in Realmuto for modest framing improvement. The Phillies should again realize overall gains on defense fueled by the catcher and outfield groups.

I just don’t know what to do with third baseman Alec Bohm. Props to him for cutting down on errors and generally improving at third base. Was his power uptick a sign of what’s to come, or does he fall back down around the .400 slugging mark? And it’s not like there’s much immediate support coming up through the minors to look towards. The bench of Edmundo Sosa, Whit Merrifield, and Cristian Pache complements the Phillies’ regular starters nicely – especially the veteran Merrifield with his positional flexibility.

— Rotation —

Bringing back Aaron Nola on a 7-year, $172M deal says a lot about the trajectory of this franchise. The two key constants in Philadelphia’s top-end rotation over the last three years have been Nola and Zack Wheeler, who is in the final year of his 5-year contract. Together, these two have carried the load while the supporting cast around them have changed. Keeping their 2014 first round pick in town for what could be the rest of his career makes sense – Aaron Nola is a known quantity within the organization who has earned his reputation as a workhorse.

A Nola & Z Wheeler Combined Production (2021-2023)

	2023	2022	2021
Starts	64	58	64
IP	385.2	258.0	394.0
WAR	9.8	10.5	11.6

One thing we’ve learned over the past three seasons is if Wheeler and Nola stay healthy, Philly has one of the best 1-2 punches in the MLB. Are they expected to hold a 10-WAR value at their ages of 33 and 30, respectively? It all comes down to innings. With Zack in the mid-3.00s and Aaron in the upper-3.00s, 9 WAR is a reasonable floor considering they produce 4+ K/BB ratios, plenty of grounders, and decent swing-and-miss action. What more can I say about these two?

2024 is shaping up to be one of the more settled starting pitching units in Philly for some time. Left-hander Ranger Suarez produced right around the 4.00 mark as a full-time starter in 2022 and 2023. Despite getting a late start last season, Suarez still made 22 starts while extending his average innings per outing from 5.36 in 2022 to 5.68. Keep an eye on what could be a persistent declining ground ball rate and increasing hard contact rate though. A healthy workload along the lines of the 2022 season should keep him in the 2+ WAR range.

Perhaps the most interesting piece of this puzzle is veteran Taijuan Walker, who revived his career after unfortunate injuries sidelined him for the better parts of the 2018-2019 seasons. A resurgent 2022 campaign with the Mets turned into a lucrative 4-year, $72M deal in Philly that started off well (31 starts, 2.5 WAR). Plus Walker’s 5.57 innings/start contributed to the rotation’s third-most innings pitched in the MLB. Several of my attempts to fade him were unsuccessful as the offense backed him to a 15-6 record despite a 4.38 ERA and 4.53 FIP/4.83 xFIP. General consensus for Taijuan to perform at the higher end of those numbers calls for a half-win or so of lost value. After all, he is a ground ball-dependent pitcher without much swing-and-miss success.

Getting In On the Ground Floor

Christopher Sanchez finally got his chance to shine as a starting pitcher after two seasons shuttling back and forth between Philly and Triple-A Lehigh Valley. The 2023 season showed off the southpaw’s excellent command and a more diversified approach to attacking hitters. Sanchez took more off of his slider and changeup, using those secondaries to produce more whiffs and ground balls. Expanding from an 18-start season to something in the mid-20s is the way to grow from 1.8 WAR, especially when doubt surrounds Christopher backing up an impressive 3.44 ERA.

The organization’s #2 prospect Mick Abel is slated to join the team at some point as their big gun in waiting Andrew Painter recovers from Tommy John surgery. Works-in-progress Nick Nelson and Kolby Allard aren’t the type of depth Rob Thomson wants to fall back on at this point either. There’s always the Matt Strahm option out of the bullpen or potential for a mid-season acquisition if things get shaky. The Phillies obviously aren’t the only team in mind when I cite rotation depth as a key concern. But the dependence on two arms to make 60+ starts combined with uncertain depth marks this group for a net loss around a couple wins.

— Bullpen —

Philadelphia’s hard-throwing bullpen produced at a top-five level, extending the unit’s turnaround that began in 2022. They’ll do it without veteran closer Craig Kimbrel after his one-year contract ended. Losing 69.0 innings and 1.1 WAR of high-leverage relief is a hurdle to returning as one of the best bullpens. Not to worry, the Kimbrel-less unit is still stacked to the ceiling.

Phillies relievers threw gas, averaging 95.0 MPH with their fastballs, the seventh-highest mark in MLB. Moreover, they ranked even higher in cutter and slider velocity, finishing fourth and fifth respectively.

Five members of Philadelphia’s pen — José Alvarado, Seranthony Domínguez, Jeff Hoffman, Yunior Marte, and Gregory Soto — made 40 or more appearances and averaged 97 MPH or better with their heaters. The power helped produce results. The club’s bullpen arms combined to log a 25,4 strikeout rate (sixth-highest in MLB) and a 3.88 FIP (fifth highest). Nine Philadelphia relievers recorded at least one save, with Kimbrel (95.8 MPH) leading the pack with 23, while Alvarado also reached double figures with 10.

FanGraphs’ Sunday Notes – David Laurila – November 26, 2023

Jose Alvarado is set to assume the predominant closer role after another season of walk rate decline. He delivers 50%+ ground balls, 30%+ strikeouts, and plenty of swings-and-misses with his power sinker. Hard contact concerns push last year’s 1.74 ERA and 2.41 FIP/2.34 xFIP higher, but a low-3.00s product in 60+ appearances would replace his own value. Fellow southpaw Gregory Soto remains in support on the heels of turning the corner from a 12%+ walk rate. Are we convinced by Soto’s sudden 4.1% drop though?

You can raise similar doubts with Jeff Hoffman’s revival. Velo up, whiffs up, and hard contact down after a drastic turnaround with the slider. Needless to say, Hoffman showed that he has the stuff to be a reliable high-leverage reliever. Backing up a career-best 1.5 WAR is another story. Minor shuffling to replace Craig Kimbrel still leaves the bullpen with a 3-WAR back-end.

Coming Through With Innings

We all know that a bullpen can’t make it on a closer and two setup men alone. Matt Strahm is another one who resurrected his career in Philly as a lefty innings-eater who can make spot starts. Expect another contribution around 1 win from the workhorse with limited rotation upside. Beyond Strahm, however, the question remains: who else will take that important next step? Seranthony Dominguez seemed to be on track in 2022 after a long layoff but lost much of his strikeout capability last year. Both Dominguez and 22-year-old Orion Kerkering need to produce at a sub-4.00 level at 60 innings to tack on another win’s worth of value to the ‘pen. The likes of Connor Brogdon, Dylan Covey, Spencer Turnbull, and the Triple-A group of Yunior Marte, Andrew Bellatti, etc. just need not to be terrible when called upon. Philadelphia should field another top-five relief unit in 2024.

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Miami Marlins 2024 Win Total: Open 79, Now 77

2023 Result: Over 73.5 (84-78 / Pythag: 75)

A third place finish in the NL East simply was not enough for anyone involved. Out goes Kim Ng and in comes former Rays exec Peter Bendix to take the reins in South Florida. Ironically, the 84-win season was the franchise’s best in 15 years. Although not all things are what they may appear. The Marlins outperformed their pythag by a league-high 9 wins – something that influences my baseline for the 2023 as we look ahead. Now the market is splitting the difference and it might pay off to have a strong opinion on this club to approach the futures markets with.

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• C Faucher (RP – RHP)
• V Brujan (UTL)
• C Bethancourt (C)
• N Gordon (INF)
• T Anderson (SS)

Subtractions:

• J Soler (OF/DH)
• D Robertson (RP – RHP)
• M Barnes (RP – RHP)
• J Davis (OF)
• Y Gurriel (1B)
• J Cueto (SP – RHP)
• J Wendle (INF)
• J Segura (INF)
• G Hampson (2B/OF)
• J Stallings (C)
• S Okert (RP – LHP)

BetCrushers 2024 Win Projection Range: 73 – 77

— Rotation —

Losing 2022 NL Cy Young Award winner Sandy Alcantara to Tommy John surgery stings. His ramp up to elite status through the 2021 and 2022 seasons exhibited tremendous command and durability. Then he became a mere mortal last season, posting a 4.14 ERA and 2.9 WAR that were well off the previous years’ marks. Yet somehow the Marlins rotation didn’t miss a beat. In fact, they tacked on 1.4 additional wins of value and bucked my expectation for a general downtick primarily due to Alcantara’s expected regression.

There’s plenty of meat on the bone again this year with Sandy’s cohorts running the show. Granted, they’re gonna have to make up 28 starts and 184.2 innings in his absence. The crazy thing is, Miami might actually has the horses to do it. And all but one of them are homegrown talents. Manager Skip Shumaker has a sneaky group of starting pitchers with a strong possibility to outdo their impressive work in 2023. That’s pretty much a must when facing the potent lineups on top of the NL East hierarchy.

The Fabulous Five

• Jesus Luzardo – Arguably the best starting pitching talent the A’s divested of in recent years, Luzardo has turned into a strikeout machine with 3+ K/BB ratios as a full-time starter in Miami. His mid-3.00s 2023 season looks legit by both the numbers and the eye test. If the lefty can pound out another 30 starts and 175+ innings you can chalk him up for 3+ WAR again.
• Eury Perez – The 20-year-old’s MLB debut season came with its share of bumpy outings en route to a sharp 3.15 ERA. Although 4.11 FIP/4.24 xFIP calls for 2024 to come in around the 4.00 mark, the strikeout artist should tack on another half-win or greater with an expanded workload.
• Braxton Garrett – The ground ball southpaw (say that ten times) parlayed a strong 2022 into a rotation spot vacated by an injured Johnny Cueto. Garrett maintained mid-3.00s numbers after nearly doubling his workload and producing 2.9 WAR. So far, so good with his new cutter too. The 26-year-old has a diverse arsenal and should retain his 2.5-WAR value this season.
• Edward Cabrera – After a brief debut in 2021 and slightly longer tenure in 2022, Cabrera needs to shake off command issues while adding another 30+ innings. Keep an eye out for improvements with his curve and slider this spring – getting those back on track should be positive indicators for a half-win or so of improvement.
• Trevor Rogers – First and foremost, the tall lefty needs to catch a break. Injuries over the last couple seasons have left the Marlins wanting more after a sizzling 2021 campaign. A modest low-4.00s expectation will provide enough value if Trevor stays healthy and punches in for 20+ starts.

Searching For Depth

Last year’s experiment of adding Johnny Cueto to the rotation simply did not pay off. As much as I love the dude, Cueto struggled into a -0.6 WAR across just 10 games. Miami also tapped Bryan Hoeing for 7 starts that clocked in slightly below replacement level. While Hoeing and Ryan Weathers might find themselves in the rotation at some point this season, Shumaker gets one of the club’s top prospects back from Tommy John rehab. Max Meyer’s entree to the MLB ended just as quickly as it began back in 2022. Fortunately, he has recovered fully and is being eased back into the fold this spring. The kid couples pure gas with a filthy slider but is still untested in the big leagues. So a cautious 1+ WAR expectation makes sense assuming 100+ innings in the rotation at a modest low-to-mid-4.00s level.

Max Meyer’s return is quietly important to the success of Miami’s rotation. Between the general inexperience of the group and uncertainty with Trevor Rogers’ health, the team needs a sixth starter or two to gobble up 20-30 starts. Guys like Ryan Weathers, Roddery Munoz, and Bryan Hoeing are on the 40-man roster but may not have the goods to jump in and deliver – at this point, anyways. Now we have to question whether Sixto Sanchez’s shoulder issues are a thing of the past. Sixto is slated to resume his fledgling MLB career as a long reliever in the bullpen who could see a couple spot starts. But the key depth piece is Max Meyer, so a full recovery is essential to keeping the rotation one of the better groups even without Sandy. Barring more than one major injury, the Marlins rotation is poised to add 1-2 wins to the cause.

— Bullpen —

Our loyal MLB readers have heard from me enough over the years about recalibrating the prior season via pythag. It’s a ground floor function to begin next year’s work with. For the Marlins, a decent chunk of that adjustment falls back on the bullpen. Miami’s 33-14 record in one-run games had a lot to do with their relievers’ ability to keep the late innings in check. Heading up the bullpen’s high-leverage group is closer Tanner Scott, fresh off of a career season in which the lefty racked up 78.0 innings in 74 appearances. Volume is one thing, a 2.31 ERA and 2.17 FIP/2.66 xFIP is another. Ground balls, strikeouts, and a slashed walk rate fueled much of the bullpen’s success. To put it in a broader context, Scott’s 2.8 WAR tied Baltimore’s Felix Bautista as the highest producing reliever last season.

Now comes a more pessimistic perspective. Tanner Scott suddenly cut his perennial double-digit walk rate from 15.9% in 2022 to 7.8%. His HR/FB ratio also plummeted by more than half and hard hit rate dropped by 6.6% to 26.3%. Is this truly Tanner Scott v. 2.0 or is regression inevitable with these key metrics? Yes and yes. Scott’s fastball/slider combo was lethal and as Laura Georgia said at fishonfirst.com: “Scott put in the work. He continually evolved into the kind of pitching talent the Marlins sorely needed amidst an unexpectedly topsy-turvy season.” With some regression ahead, Tanner should still produce at a low-3.00s level and easily grade out at 1+ WAR.

A Bullpen Reloaded

The bad news: David Robertson and Dylan Floro are gone in free agency. Missing 1.4 WAR from the established righty veteran relievers does not help the cause even if their .385 and .401 BABIPs, respectively, hint at being a little less unlucky this year. Robertson’s rough tenure in Miami really stung considering that his 2.05 ERA in New York ballooned to 5.06 after moving south. The ERA jump was in lock step with BABIP too. And Floro’s typical ground ball mastery turned into a death by 1,000 cuts.

The good news: Miami has a bullpen full of tough left-handed relievers including the aforementioned Tanner Scott. AJ Puk and Andrew Nardi are Scott’s primary setup men who are coming into their own after strong 2023 seasons. 25-year-old Nardi seemingly burst out of nowhere in that fastball/slider mold which stifled hard contact (26.6%) and delivered a healthy 30.8% strikeout rate. Likewise, former Oakland prospect AJ Puk ramped his K rate up to 32.2% while keeping hard contact to a minimum (32.2%). Both players are expected to shake out in the mid-3.00s range and maintain their collective 1.5+ WAR value. Southpaw Ryan Weathers steps in to replace Steven Okert as the fourth left-handed staple of the Marlins bullpen at the expense of about a half-run of effectiveness.

Despite less reliability in the right-hander camp, ground ball specialist JT Chargois taking on an expanded workload in the absence of Dylan Floro isn’t terrible. They’re essentially a one-for-one swap when considering 2024 projections. A healthy Anthony Bender gives the relief corps another 60-inning ground ball arm that can post a sub-4.00 figure like his 2021 debut season. But questions surround Sixto Sanchez’ effectiveness after missing three years due to injury, as well as what to expect from year two of George Soriano’s MLB career. Soriano worked more than three outs in 19 of his 25 relief appearances. The 4.37 FIP/4.68 xFIP is an issue though. As it stands today, Sixto’s role as swingman should add enough value to help the bullpen put up another very effective season. Not much change to my preseason ratings for this group. If anything, a very minor downgrade.

— Position Players —

The Marlins lineup is an eclectic mix of players, most of whom were acquired by trade. They didn’t hit particularly well last season, ran the bases poorly, and weren’t overly active in the new stolen base environment. Even so, Miami’s offense was better than the season before. Last offseason’s trade of pitcher Pablo Lopez to Minnesota brought in one of the league’s best contact hitters, Luis Arraez. He delivered to expectation with a .354/.393/.469 line good enough for 3.4 WAR. Jorge Soler surged to a 36-homer season that earned him a bigger contract after opting out. Plus the Fish benefitted from substantial second-half outperformances by midseason acquisitions Jake Burger and Josh Bell. Each appeared in 53 games with Miami, hitting .303/.355/.505 and .270/.338/.480, respectively. Soler, Burger, and Bell absolutely demoralized left-handed pitchers.

Will the Cream Rise to the Top?

A full season of Josh Bell in lieu of a Garrett Cooper and Yuli Gurriel tandem is positive, especially if the switch-hitting slugger’s second half signals a rebound from a disappointing 2023 season as a whole. And it’s not like the Marlins lack a solid trio of outfielders. Jorge Soler’s offensive resurgence will be missed but his fielding liabilities surely won’t. Jesus Sanchez hit well enough to take over most of the right field duties but ideally has platoon help to fill the other side of the equation. I’m unsure whether the bench can accommodate that though. On the other side of the outfield, Bryan De La Cruz looks to return to 2022 form – both offensively and defensively.

Soler’s departure takes away “emergency” outfield depth, though letting Garrett Hampson walk in free agency does more damage in that regard. Avisail Garcia is not necessarily the guy to have a ton of confidence in. Were the Marlins going to get another career-best season from the former Colorado role player? I doubt it. But losing both Hampson and shortstop Joey Wendle creates opportunities for someone like 24-year-old prospect Xavier Edwards or former Minnesota utility man Nick Gordon. Naturally, free agent Tim Anderson was brought into the mix to muddy the waters after a brutal season. Wendle was a plus defender at short who put up his worst offensive numbers ever (.212/.248/.306). At least the bar is low for some type of Tim Anderson/Jon Berti/Xavier Edwards rotation to improve on.

Along those same lines, there are signs of life at third base after 33-year-old Jean Segura vacated the hot corner. It’s natural to be skeptical of Jake Burger’s second half power surge. Plus his defense might not be any better than Segura’s was last year. When it comes to upgrading the veteran’s 52 wRC+, however, Burger is a slam dunk. Third base and shortstop should produce more consistent offense at twice the efficiency over Segura and Wendle. These are offensive improvements that should add enough over and above the tempered expectations from the likes of Josh Bell and Luis Arraez.

Holes Up the Middle

That’s not to say that the position player corps doesn’t have concerns flying in their faces. Jazz Chisholm Jr.’s debut in center field hurt the team’s defense while at the same time hurting the guy himself. Hard contact with the wall and turf toe limited the phenom’s season to just 97 games. That and his -9 DRS should make Skip Shumaker think of the Diamondbacks’ difficult decisions surrounding Ketel Marte in recent years. Maybe second base is the right spot for everyone’s well being. Otherwise, it may be a lot to ask of Jazz to be a better defender out there and stay healthy.

A new regime behind the plate was imperative after two years headed up by Jacob Stallings. Three seasons of strong defense and a solid bat in Pittsburgh turned into sub-replacement level work in Miami. Now 27-year-old Nick Fortes assumes the primary backstop position after an ugly 53 wRC+. His 2022 breakout offers enough hope to expect a reasonable 25% bump with the bat while maintaining solid fielding and framing grades. Plus middling backup Christian Bethancourt slides in with defense similar to Stallings and a 20%-ish better bat.

I struggle to mark up the Marlins defense much at all. Will Jazz find his footing in centerfield? Can Bryan De La Cruz adapt to a corner outfield position? Is TA’s outlook better now that he’s out of Chicago? We’ll see if Spring Training sheds any light on these questions. Otherwise, expect business as usual with a subpar fielding unit.

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New York Mets 2024 Win Total: Open 83.5, Now 81

2023 Result: Under 95 (75-87 / Pythag: 80)

The New York state of mind failed to menace when it came to sports. The Mets, Yankees, Jets, and Giants all went down in flames in 2023. Parallels between the city’s MLB clubs include the Mets clocking in with 26 less wins than 2022 and the Yankees dropping 27. Pretty much all aspects were disappointing when compared to the season before. Change in the offseason air brought in former Yankees’ bench coach Carlos Mendoza to replace manager Buck Showalter. In the front office, the exiled Billy Eppler was shoved to the side for the guy that the Mets wanted all along: former Milwaukee executive David Stearns. So let’s see what this new era has in store for 2024…

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• J Wendle (INF)
• L Severino (SP – RHP)
• M Tonkin (RP – RHP)
• J Lopez (RP – RHP)
• T Taylor (OF)
• A Houser (SP – RHP)
• H Bader (CF)
• S Manaea (SP – LHP)
• S Fujinami (RP – RHP)
• J Diekman (RP – LHP)

Subtractions:

• J Curtiss (RP – RHP)
• T Hunter (RP – RHP)
• C Carrasco (SP – RHP)
• T Gott (RP – RHP)
• R Ortega (OF)
• D Vogelbach (1B/DH)
• L Guillorme (INF)

BetCrushers 2024 Win Projection Range: 82 – 85

— Rotation —

Reuniting Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer to head up the 2023 rotation failed to send a message to the NL East. Well, it was worth a shot. After six months of pain, the final rendition of that rotation was quite the departure from Opening Day. Verlander and Scherzer gave the Mets a combined 35 starts and 202.0 innings before the trade deadline. Then four months in, the club cut bait with these valuable veteran starters when things went south. Yet the patchwork rotation actually held their own from August on.

NYM Starting Pitchers, by Period (2023)

	ERA	FIP/xFIP	WAR
Thru July	4.46	4.60/4.41	5.3 (25th)
August Forward	3.73	4.06/4.32	4.7 (8th)

Nobody did more for this starting pitching group than Kodai Senga. In his MLB debut, the 31-year-old pitched 166.1 innings over 29 starts. He was gold at home (2.42 ERA, 32.7% K) but the road treated him poorly (3.68 ERA, 24.8% K). Time will tell whether those drastic home/road splits persist or will be mitigated by a full year under his belt. Senga’s cutter and ghost fork pushed him to a full-season 29.1% strikeout rate and 2.98 ERA. But any prospect for improvement is at risk with a shoulder strain suffered in Spring Training. The club needs Kodai to stretch out starts more frequently to help both the rotation and bullpen. If his season debut is only delayed slightly, 3 WAR is still achievable even if Senga drifts towards last year’s 3.63 FIP/3.77 xFIP.

Kodai’s lone returning running mate is left-hander Jose Quintana, one of the late season’s unsung heroes. I can remember the days where I wrote about Quintana’s durability and workhorse status. Those days are long gone. Carlos Mendoza’s expectations should be satisfied with 25+ starts and 150 innings from the mid-30s ground ball pitcher. Greater workload helps replace his partial-season 1.5 WAR after adjusting for regression into the 4.00s. But that still may be a tough ask.

Bringing in Reinforcements

Short-term deals with Luis Severino, Adrian Houser, and Sean Manaea mark 2024 as a bridge year for the club. Longtime Yankees starter Severino is allegedly healthy after missing the better part of five seasons. Houser is worth giving a shot in the rotation after a decent farewell season in Milwaukee. Both are on one-year deals with 20-start, mid-4.00s expectations. Luis is a true crapshoot considering that he hasn’t started more than 19 games since 2018 and not much went well last season. Strikeouts fell by nearly 9%, hard contact was at a career-high 42.2%, and a 6.65 ERA stymied any sort of a turnaround for the veteran.

Adrian Houser’s role as a ground ball contact pitcher is passable, especially if 2022 was a small blip on his fairly steady career profile. I’d argue that he’s more reliable as a mid-4.00s starter than is Severino and his wider range of outcomes this season. Joining forces with left-hander Sean Manaea gives the rotation around a 3-5 win foundation to work with. The former Oakland starter’s career path has taken some twists and turns including a stint as San Francisco’s swingman last season. Low-to-mid-4.00s projections carry uncertainty despite recapturing the mojo with his fastball and changeup. The slider is still M.I.A. and Manaea’s splits out of the bullpen were nearly a run lower than as a starter.

These new additions are penciled in for 60-70 starts, brining the rotation’s estimate to around 120 by throwing in Senga and Quintana. Someone has to soak up the missing 25% of the rotation’s workload though. The first places to look are homegrown arms Tylor Megill and left-hander David Peterson. Both of these 28-year-olds were key pieces of the late season fortifications, each making 10 starts from August on with a combined 0.9 WAR. Peterson will begin the season on the shelf after early November hip surgery. Once Senga comes off the IL, Megill likely bides his time in Triple-A alongside Joey Lucchesi and Jose Butto. Questions on the front line and questionable depth pieces create a wide range of effectiveness for the 2024 rotation centering on last year’s overall value.

— Bullpen —

It’s a good thing that this year’s rotation looks very little like the disaster of 2023. Getting back elite closer Edwin Diaz surely does not hurt. After missing an entire season due to a torn patellar tendon suffered in the WBC, Diaz is primed to recapture his 30+ save, sub-3.00 form atop the Mets bullpen. David Robertson and Adam Ottavino tag-teamed the role for 26 of the team’s 34 saves last year. But Robertson was traded at the deadline and took his 2.05 ERA and .250 BABIP with him to Miami. New York undoubtedly got the best of him before passing on a big dose of regression to the Fish. Diaz’ return consolidates the role with 20% whiff and 40%+ strikeout rates that should garner 1.5+ WAR.

Considering how the Mets bullpen posted the league’s second-lowest 0.5 WAR in 2023, improvement is all but a given – as long as the sum of the supporting cast is anything but negative. Big righty Adam Ottavino re-signed with the club, keeping in tact a righty/lefty setup pair that should produce a half to full win of value somewhere around the 4.00 mark. They’re proven 60-outing relievers that need to be more reliable than dazzling. An inconsistent Drew Smith is joined by the high walk rates of Jake Diekman and Shintaro Fujinami in shaky middle relief. And throw in the home run-prone Jorge Lopez for even more fireworks. Assume replacement level work outside of the high-leverage group as Mendoza shuffles the deck chairs throughout the season.

— Position Players —

The Mets’ parallel to the Yankees’ struggles extended to the plenty of home runs, not enough baserunners problem. One key difference is a highly effective running game that subsidized a 25th-lowest batting average (.236). 118 stolen bases were barely top-half in the MLB, however, the 88.7% success rate was one of the best. Francisco Lindor’s 34 stolen bases at a phenomenal 89.4% rate and ageless wonder Starling Marte’s 24 bags at 85.7% made things happen where the team’s bats were lacking. Now the club has the speedy Harrison Bader to prop up this high bar on the bases.

One of the team’s few unknowns on the position player side is third base. Promising 22-year-old infielder Ronny Mauricio figured to take plenty of reps at the corner before tearing his ACL in the Dominican Winter League. As Davy Andrews said in the linked article, Mauricio was one of three competing for the job. Instead, the poor-fielding duo of Brett Baty and Mark Vientos return with support from flexible left-handed hitting infielder Joey Wendle in lieu of Luis Guillorme. Third base was an Achilles heel for the Mets, clocking in as the worst unit in the majors. At least Baty and Vientos are expected to raise their 2023 sub-70 wRC+ by 20% or more. Gaining an effective platoon at third would be noticeable in this lineup.

Where’s the Beef?

So far, David Stearns is letting it ride in the field. He’s indicated that first baseman Pete Alonso will not receive an extension offer in his final year of team control. The Polar Bear has been a very consistent hitter in recent years despite a rough bout with a .205 BABIP last season. Penciling him in around 3 WAR again makes sense, except that value obviously diminishes if Pete is dealt this summer. Infield comrades Jeff McNeil and Francisco Lindor are in their 30s but still grade out as a 7+ WAR double play tandem. That’s a small step back primarily due to questions with Lindor maintaining such a high level of well-rounded production.

Fortunately, the Francisco Alvarez era behind the plate got off to a good start. Putting aside the 22-year-old’s relative struggles with controlling the base paths, he excelled at framing while leading this top-five defensive position group. Alvarez and Omar Narvaez, who appears to have completely lost his early-career power, are both expected to tick up offensively while holding down solid defense once again. Now we’re looking at an infield that shows decent balance from one season to the next.

Starling Marte’s groin health is one key to improving a bottom-third outfield defense. Otherwise, the deterioration of Brandon Nimmo’s fielding emphasizes the importance of signing Harrison Bader to take over in center. An offensive rebound is in the cards for Bader even if 100 games is his likely ceiling. Depth via newcomers DJ Stewart and Tyrone Taylor forms a decent outfield rotation that spills over to the DH spot. The Mets need baserunners badly, to which there is reason for optimism. However, any improvement on offense or in the field is probably limited to 1-3 wins.

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Washington Nationals 2024 Win Total: Open 68, Now 66.5

2023 Result: Over 61.5 (71-91 / Pythag: 67)

A last place NL East finish was in the cards from the get-go for the Washington Nationals. The passing of the Lerner family’s patriarch last February was bittersweet for a franchise that reached the sport’s pinnacle just five years ago. A rough stretch since divesting their most desirable assets led to a slow-going rebuild that actually exceeded very low expectations last season. As a result, owner Mark Lerner expressed his faith in longtime GM Mike Rizzo and manager Davey Martinez through contract extensions. Whether the Nats deserve a win total bump of 5 games over 2023 is another story…

Offseason Personnel Changes

Additions:

• N Senzel (3B)
• D Floro (RP – RHP)
• J Gallo (OF)

Subtractions:

• C Edwards Jr. (RP – RHP)
• C Kuhl (RHP)
• C Dickerson (OF)
• V Arano (RP – RHP)
• D Smith (1B/OF)
• C Abbott (RP – RHP)

BetCrushers 2024 Win Projection Range: 51 – 71

— Position Players —

This was a team that I expected modest improvements from pretty much everywhere but the bullpen. Instead, the Nats showed very little across the board – except in the win column. Despite a lack of home run threats, the lineup separated itself from the dregs of most offensive categories with a relatively effective small ball approach. Plus the young talent that the Nationals front office traded their stars for gained valuable big league experience. Now the likes of CJ Abrams, Keibert Ruiz, and Lane Thomas have another year under their belts as do quad-A types Joey Meneses and Stone Garrett.

Offseason losses were limited to disappointing free agents Corey Dickerson and Dom Smith who went one-and-done with the Nats. But the most impactful subtraction from the 2023 roster is third baseman Jeimer Candelario who was flipped to the Cubs mid-season for a pair of prospects. Washington played their cards right with Candelario through the building for the future lens, however, his departed bat left a huge hole after 99 games of .258/.342/.481 ball. Then replacements Carter Kieboom and Ildemaro Vargas “pitched in” with sub-.200 batting averages. That prompted Mike Rizzo to pursue Jeimer again in free agency this winter but was beaten out by Cincinnati. Instead, the Nats picked up former Red Nick Senzel to man the hot corner.

Letting It Ride

Washington’s approach of running out most of 2023’s lineup has merit for where this franchise is currently positioned. The Senzel acquisition stems the bleeding at third base, although the .300-OBP veteran is still about 2 WAR shy of what Candelario posted in his brief Nationals tenure. Another note concerns Victor Robles, who missed the vast majority of 2023 with injuries. The possibility for the glove-first centerfielder’s back spasms to linger into this season impacts the configuration and depth of Davey Martinez’ lineup. Fortunately, things are looking good with Robles’ back in Spring Training.

Returning shortstop CJ Abrams and corner outfielder Lane Thomas provided half of the entire 2023 position player corps’ value. Thomas may turn out to be a league-average hitter who managed to crush lefty pitchers last year though. Both Thomas and backup catcher Riley Adams feasted on southpaws but face regression headwinds in 2024. Neither are noteworthy defenders, so Lane Thomas stands to lose 1+ WAR if his power and plate discipline spikes turn out to be one-offs. Abrams, on the other hand, made small steps forward offensively and capitalized on the new run game environment by swiping 47 bags. While the 23-year-old’s stolen base proliferation probably topped out there are signs of life defensively at this premium position. That said, I still expect a 1-win loss of value between these two.

Keeping Their Heads Above Water

Losing around 3 WAR from last year’s top three producers is a challenge for this limited roster. Their other corner outfielder, Stone Garrett, offers little defensive value but earned a larger role after slashing .269/.343/.457. A potential fall from a lofty .365 BABIP offsets Garrett’s value gained by more plate appearances though. So where’s the beef? Joey Gallo provides some of the boom-or-bust variety against righties in a platoon role. His effects are likely limited, especially in comparison to the potential for first baseman Joey Meneses to rekindle his 2022 power numbers. Both he and catcher Keibert Ruiz lost over 3 wins of value between the last two seasons! The good news: it won’t take a miracle to regain those wins.

Ruiz’ path forward lies in his defensive value. A significant reset in framing and overall fielding cloud the catcher’s modest offensive improvements. However, the outlook for the 25-year-old is brighter in year three as the primary backstop. Counting on Keibert Ruiz and CJ Abrams to add defensive value may be foolish at this point but they’ve led me to make positive adjustments for the team. There’s just a ton of uncertainty clouding this lineup to feel overly confident.

Limited infield depth is counteracted by a stronger crop of outfielder prospects. Jacob Young and Alex Call can be thrown back into the fold after making positive contributions for the Nats. But the two names that keep popping up for a second half impact are speedy Dylan Crews and thumper James Wood. Both are now the ripe age of 21 and could set their MLB careers in motion this summer. It’s just that neither will significantly move the team’s full-season needle. Modest gains at the plate with minor rebalancing of splits is where I am headed to start the 2024 campaign.

— Rotation —

The Nationals’ starting pitchers share a little too much in common with its lineup – mostly the spinning its wheels part. Less experienced arms Josiah Gray, MacKenzie Gore, and Jake Irvin racked up important playing time en route to little overall success. The rotation posted an ugly 5.02 ERA and 5.30 FIP/4.95 xFIP, gave up the second most home runs (151), and had the second lowest 2.03 K/BB ratio. What the Washington starting pitchers did excel at, however, is continuity. There are a good number of clubs that would love to get 143 starts out of their best five starters. Of course, those teams would appreciate low-4.00s production to go with that continuity.

The more established veterans of the group are Trevor Williams and lefty Patrick Corbin who, by the way, is finally on the last year of his 6-year, $140M contract. As luck would have it, the embattled Corbin led the team in innings pitched (180.0). 31-year-old Williams was less impactful in his 30 starts, averaging 4.81 innings per start with a 5.55 ERA and 5.98 FIP/5.21 xFIP. That earned him the distinction as the only one of these five starters to post a negative WAR (-0.1). Plus there’s room for improvement with Williams and Corbin after both dropped several percentage points from their K rates. The pessimistic view labels this as a sign of their skill set declines and calls for no increase in valuation ahead.

The Building Blocks

The immediate future of the rotation rests on the shoulders of MacKenzie Gore and Josiah Gray. Gray came to D.C. with Keibert Ruiz in exchange for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Dodgers. Similarly, Gore headed east with CJ Abrams after being traded from the Padres for Juan Soto and Josh Bell. All four Nats are regular contributors and viewed as the building blocks for a 2025 playoff contending team. So far, so good with those two starting pitchers who combined for 295.1 innings and 2.9 WAR.

24-year-old MacKenzie Gore struggled with the long ball, yielding a home run rate nearly double that of his 2022 MLB debut season. Otherwise, the left-hander showed enough improvement to earn a 4.11 xFIP that points towards a low-4.00s season ahead. The fact that Gore was the only Washington starter with a strikeout rate greater than 21% (26.0%) is concerning though. Josiah Gray flipped the script on a brutally rough 2022 season by tightening up his game in many areas – except for strikeouts. He diversified his arsenal, slashed homers, and produced more ground balls to become a more reliable starter. But Gray’s 3.91 ERA comes with a concerning 4.93 FIP and 5.12 xFIP that tempers expectations. The duo’s lack of established track record and lingering kinks needing worked out pushes me toward keeping them in the same ballpark of 3 WAR.

Jake Irvin can parlay his MLB debut into a contributing role by eating more innings. He’s a pitch-to-contact type who didn’t find much success with his fastball and ended up with a 5.30 FIP/5.14 xFIP. Irvin and Joan Adon find themselves in similar exploratory positions this season despite the latter shaping as more of a sixth starter/long reliever. Plus top prospect Cade Cavalli will return from Tommy John rehab and could ease his way back into the rotation. With room for improvement over last season, a small markup for the rotation is appropriate at around 2 wins.

— Bullpen —

I’ve seen it mentioned how this is a Finnegan and Harvey bullpen with bulk arms behind them. And the numbers pretty much say the same thing. Nats relievers posted a league-low 20.0% strikeout rate and second-highest batting average against (.263) en route to 0.6 WAR. Closer Kyle Finnegan grabs top billing with 28 saves last season but saw his K rate slump and hard hit rate spike. That leaves enough uncertainty for the upcoming campaign. His back-end partner Hunter Harvey provided the most value with a bullpen-leading 28.5% strikeout rate and 2.82 ERA, 3.29 FIP/3.34 xFIP. All that came on the back of a .253 BABIP that pushes his projections towards regression.

So if Washington’s bullpen lacks depth and its high-leverage duo isn’t as polished as they may appear, how does it get out of the bottom tier? Maybe lefty Robert Garcia takes a more prominent role after a successful MLB debut with mid-3.00s results. Or free agent acquisition Dylan Floro adds stability as an innings guy who delivers plenty of ground balls. Tanner Rainey is back from Tommy John surgery as will be Cade Cavalli, whose return is likely to begin in relief. Much like the rotation, improvement is almost inevitable simply due to last season’s low baseline. There are glimmers of hope! I’ll adjust the bullpen upward by a win or so depending on what Spring Training reveals.

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2024 NL East Projected Standings

1. Atlanta Braves (105-57)
2. Philadelphia Phillies (89-73)
3. New York Mets (83-79)
4. Miami Marlins (75-87)
5. Washington Nationals (58-104)

Getting Warmer…

Opening Day is less than four weeks away and Spring Training is in full effect. We’re four deep into the preview series with just a couple to go. If you want to get caught up, check out the MLB page at BetCrushers.com. Want updates when new posts drop? Follow us on Twitter or subscribe below for email notifications: