Plenty of NASCAR Cup Series teams’ prospects took an abrupt turn for the worse at the Bristol Night Race. Unfortunately, I did not get the memo on Ford’s tire pressure gamble that snagged our Joey Logano Top 10 bid late in the race – let alone the early blowout that crushed my Ryan Blaney matchup. At least we have our guy Paul breaking us off a solid W with Keselowski outlasting Mr. Stenhouse. Good to see some of the folks on Twitter getting huge returns on their Chris Buescher tickets too. Hats off to the #17 team for a fantastic finish in Bristol. Love that guy. Moving right along with an early look at the 2022 EchoPark Automotive 500 at Texas Motor Speedway…
The 2022 EchoPark Automotive 500 – Early Handicaps
Despite considerable criticism for the “new” Texas Motor Speedway, at least we have 5+ years of racing info with the renovated surface. It may be another ho-hum 1990’s era intermediate but it is the playoffs after all. Plus having some action on Sunday’s race takes the edge off of the scenario. Speaking of action, here’s a few early positions on our Texas betting card:
The C-Bell Double Down
| Recent Speed | Recent Finish | Track | Track Type | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bell | A+ | A | A- | A |
| Larson | C+ | B | A- | A- |
Nothing like chasing some hype this weekend. NBC Sports’ newly-minted #1 on the power ranking C-Bell has my attention once again. I’m definitely not alone either. If momentum means anything to you as a handicapper, Bell deserves a long look. But the question always in the back of my mind revolves around whether the price is right. We’re talking about a team that’s been one of the fastest through the playoffs – especially where it counts for handicapping Texas. You probably already know that Christopher is the only driver with Top 5 finishes in all three playoff races, so will the books offer us any value?
WAGER: Bell Top 5 +124 (BetRivers; -110 @ DraftKings)
Just because Christopher Bell rattled off three straight Top 5 finishes doesn’t automatically equate to a 50%+ chance of doing it at Texas. +124 sweetens the pot much better than -110 but the latter price tag is not terrible if DraftKings is your option (or if you bet four figures and can’t get down at BetRivers). The cheapskate in me says -110 isn’t good enough, although the numbers say differently. We’ve established that the #20 team’s speed and finishes have been there since Richmond. What about Texas? Back-to-back P3s in the points races from meh starting positions resulted from being there when it counted. Race ratings of 92.2 and 99.0 support Top 10-type of results – maybe not Top 5s if you are skeptical.
Flash forward to 2022 and C-Bell’s second season with Joe Gibbs Racing. This is where speed data on this track type helps lead you to Top 5 expectations. And the results agree: P10 early in the season at Las Vegas, P5 in the Coca-Cola 600, and a pair of Top 5s at Kansas. The most recent three of those contests were run with 109.4, 98.4, and 119.7 ratings. That’s when the kid really started to find his groove, ramping right into his win on the Magic Mile.
WAGER: Bell -105 > Larson (DraftKings)
Is he in a position to edge out reigning Cup Series Champion Kyle Larson though? After all, the Hendrick Motorsports #5 Chevy finished runner-up at Las Vegas with a huge 108.9 rating – oddly, a small step down from Larson’s dream season of 2021. For all intents and purposes 2022 continues to be an understandable step back despite being a leading candidate to repeat as Champion. Putting the numbers aside, this is a prime spot for Kyle to climb the playoff standings. Larson found lucrative honey holes on the 1.5-mile intermediates last season with wins at Texas, Las Vegas, Kansas, and Charlotte…plus a runner-up at Atlanta!
But that level of speed – especially relative to the field – has not been there in 2022. We’ve seen Larson’s performance taper in the second half as emphasized by the Coca-Cola 600 and the Kansas race two weeks ago. I’d respect an opposite argument that Kyle has the edge on this track type, especially at Texas, but is it enough to overcome what this #20 team has been doing on a weekly basis lately? Clearly I’m saying no with my money this week.
A Value Proposition: Chase Elliott -175 vs. Joey Logano +145
| Recent Speed | Recent Finish | Track | Track Type | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elliott | B | B- | B- | B- |
| Logano | A- | B- | A | C |
Last week’s plus-money matchup grab of Bubba Wallace +205 against Christopher Bell got sidelined behind the wall for a good chunk of the Bristol Night Race. This week I’m looking at two Championship-caliber teams, one of which is priced as a healthy underdog at Texas. You would think this matchup is much closer to a pick ’em considering that both have been far from flawless in the postseason but were laying down solid finishes as the regular season was winding down. You can poke holes in my recent finish assessment, though recent speed data tilts in favor of the #22 Penske Ford crew. And to be a bit more conservative after Kansas a couple weekends ago this measure is likely much tighter.
Just like the Bell/Larson handicap above, we have to look at what these teams have done on the 1.5-mile ovals with the Next Gen car. Chase Elliott’s speed advantage on these intermediates expands with a better Kansas playoff race finish and a strong February race at Las Vegas. The #22’s pit strategy at Kansas did not help his cause but ultimately it’s the order of finish that decides whether the book taketh or giveth. Now what do we do with these former Cup Series Champions’ work at Texas since the 2017 season? Finish-wise, Logano has come out on top in six of those nine contests. Same story with race rating figures. Isolate the five Texas playoff races in this period and you’ll find that Joey finished ahead of Chase four times with better ratings in three.
WAGER: [1/2u] Logano +145 > Elliott (DraftKings)
I could be delusional thinking this matchup deserves to be priced closer to a pick ’em. So I will tread lightly and book a half-unit position on the dog with the intent to add more if nothing crazy happens in Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions. Neither driver has been consistently great on the intermediates in 2022 so bracing for another disappointment is a must. Regardless, BOL and we’ll catch up with more handicapping on race day.
And Then There Were Twelve…
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