Download Episode 3 of 2022 (Phoenix)
Episode 3 of the Playing the Odds NASCAR Style podcast heads to picturesque Phoenix Raceway for the 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500. JJ joins Paul to talk intense battles and pit strategies in Vegas and how our handicaps fared last week. What have we found out with the Next Gen car? More importantly, which of the Cup Series teams are figuring this thing quicker than others? Then it’s time to handicap a couple plays that the guys have their early dollars on. The 2022 season is off and running – and Phoenix should put on a good show! BOL!
Taking Care of Business at the 2022 Ruoff Mortgage 500 – Featured Handicaps for Phoenix:
Martin Truex, Jr. -110 vs. Kyle Busch
Kurt Busch -115 vs. Chase Briscoe
Bonus Handicap: Aric Almirola -110 vs. Alex Bowman
Chris Buscher brought home the W for last week’s bonus handicap, though that success had more to do with Cole Custer’s “issues” than it did the #17 being exceptionally good. This week’s handicap that did not quite make it onto the Playing the Odds NASCAR Style pod involves a couple drivers who are getting plenty of buzz after Las Vegas. Bowman’s victory in Sin City deservedly puts the Arizona native squarely into the Phoenix conversation. Almirola, on the other hand, worked his way into the mix as the only driver with three Top 10 finishes so far this season. In fact, they’ve all been Top 6 finishes.
The impressive part of AA’s performance so far in the young 2022 season comes with doing very little in qualifying. In terms of total speed rankings, the #10 Mustang has put up mid-teens speed in all three races. You can say the same for Bowman at Auto Club, whose victory last week came with second-best speed alongside his Hendrick Motorsports teammates – behind Ross Chastain, mind you. AB holds a small edge in terms of speed so far this season, which is to be expected from a top tier organization like HMS.
The Phoenix Effect
Phoenix Raceway is an enigmatic track in terms of configuration, especially after the start/finish line was moved in 2018. It is truly an electric track that, for some reason, has stymied Alex Bowman, except for that one time…
Since joining Hendrick Motorsports full time in 2018, Alex Bowman has yet to out-finish Aric Almirola at Phoenix Raceway. His best finishes outside of that 2016 pinch hit role have been 13th place jobs in the 2018 and 2021 spring races. Plus Bowman has yet to top his spring 2020 rating of 80.7 in the eight Phoenix contests held since the 2018 season – or gain any Stage 2 points, for that matter.
The Counterpunch
It’s not like Aric Almirola has been lights out here either. Though his Phoenix resume since joining the #10 SHR team in 2018 has been pretty darn solid. Aside from a late flat tire in the 2019 fall race that took him out of Top 10 contention, AA delivered seven finishes of 13th place or better – four of which were Top 10s. It helped that the #10 team’s speed ratings were right there in the same ballparks as their finishes. And there’s something to be said how the spring Phoenix race has been a key factor in AA getting his seasons off on the right foot:
- 2018: rolled a P10 at Las Vegas into a P7 at Phoenix
- 2019: one-upped his 2018 with a P7 at Vegas and a P4 at Phoenix – right in the middle of 6 straight Top 10s
- 2020: back-to-back P8s at Fontana then Phoenix
- 2021: despite an otherwise disastrous start to the season and a speeding penalty in Stage 2, Almirola started 32nd and finished 11th
Almirola went from a low 80s rated driver at Phoenix in the #43 Petty car to an upper 80s to 90s driver in the #10. Even if I put him in the mid-80s range with the Next Gen car this weekend, AA is facing a driver whose only Cup finish at this track above an 81 rating was that mind-blowing 2016 race. Bowman showed us serious speed last weekend, but we really have yet to see him capitalize on that HMS speed at Phoenix Raceway. Show me a fourth straight Top 10 finish from the #10 team this weekend and this ticket should cash.
JJ’s Wager: Aric Almirola -110 > Alex Bowman
Follow Us for More NASCAR Handicapping
Missed the link? Click to find Episode 3 of 2022 (Phoenix) here.
Find Paul (@NASCARStyleOdds) at NASCARstyleodds.com
Find JJ with (@TheBetCrushers) at Betcrushers.com
