When it came to taking down one of the toughest divisions in the majors, San Francisco defied the odds and showed that old dudes can still get it done. Out of nowhere, the Giants – not the Padres – disrupted the Dodgers’ eight-year reign over the NL West. But the standings are reset and heavyweight contenders Los Angeles and San Diego are more than capable of taking back the title. Is Colorado onto something? Can Arizona rise from the ashes and inch their way into the 2022 NL West conversation? The division features a wide gap between the haves and have-nots, yet anything is possible in today’s game. Okay, almost anything.
This is one in a series of six Divisional Futures Previews for the 2022 MLB season – each a combination of art, science, and everything in between resting on player projections from some of the sharpest minds in statistical analysis – and the starting point for our season-long and daily handicaps. This annual tradition is an incremental process from season to season that’s full of blood, sweat, and tears. As always, thanks to our loyal readers and BOL this season! (Win totals referenced in each team’s header are courtesy of DraftKings.)
2021 Division Winner: San Francisco Giants
2021 NL West Final Standings
- San Francisco Giants (107-55)
- Los Angeles Dodgers (106-56)
- San Diego Padres (79-83)
- Colorado Rockies (74-87)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (52-110)
San Francisco Giants 2022 Win Total: Open 85.5
2021 Win Total: Over 74.5 (107-55 / Pythag = 103)
The scrappy San Francisco Giants find themselves looking way up at the Dodgers and Padres in the 2021 NL West – a pair of teams that will undoubtedly lead the charge in the division. Although the team looks to be competitive again, they have the slimmest of margins when it comes to making the playoffs.
2021 NL West Preview & Futures – BetCrushers.com – March 7, 2021
It’s safe to say I wasn’t the only one who completely whiffed on projecting the second-oldest roster in the majors. In addition to making the playoffs, the Giants cranked out the most wins of all 30 clubs, crushing their win total by 32 wins! Manager Gabe Kapler’s success with this veteran crew made his early exit from Philadelphia look like another poor decision by that front office. Regardless, San Francisco appears to have transitioned well in the post-Bochy era in terms of managing – but can this franchise weather the storm of aging players again?
Key Personnel Changes
Additions:
- Carlos Rodon – LHP (SP)
- Alex Cobb – RHP (SP)
Subtractions:
- Buster Posey – C
- Kevin Gausman – RHP (SP)
- Johnny Cueto – RHP (SP) ???
BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 74 – 83
— Rotation —
San Francisco’s rotation has a new look after parting ways with Shimmy King Johnny Cueto and watching ace Kevin Gausman leave town in free agency. Their collective third-lowest 3.43 FIP/3.63 xFIP was a product of a second-best walk rate and ground ball rate. Although Cueto was fairly effective in limited innings, the Giants will greatly miss Gausman’s 4.8 WAR season. Now a Blue Jay, Gaus delivered 192.0 innings of 3.00 FIP/3.28 xFIP magic for San Francisco. That was the sixth-largest workload for any starting pitcher in the MLB last year. And it was all made possible by the strongest fastball/splitter season of his career. Now it’s time for the club to move on.
Kevin Gausman’s absence leaves a massive hole in the Giants rotation from an innings standpoint alone. To help ease that dropoff, San Francisco inked former White Sox lefty Carlos Rodon to a 2-year/$44M deal. Rodon comes to the Bay Area after notching several career bests just a year ago. 4.9 WAR, 2.65 FIP/3.17 xFIP, 14.9% swinging strike rate, a near perfect game, etc. His 24 starts and 132.2 IP marked yet another season falling short of 140 innings due to injury. In fact, 2016 is the only season where Carlos exhibited durability. Last year’s fastball/slider combo was as good as it’s ever been, though his spike in velocity weakened down the stretch as shoulder issues hampered a Cy Young-caliber effort. As for 2022, reality says to expect a similar workload at a mid-3.00s FIP level. That should account for at least a few wins that Gausman left behind.
Trending Positively
Logan Webb and Alex Wood each had excellent seasons in 2021. The former looks like a breakout star, and the latter shook off years of inconsistency and earned himself a multi-year contract on the back of his resurgence. Both of them relied on sinkers to do so. And not just any sinker, either; both of them tormented opposing batters by throwing their sinker for called strikes over and over.
The Giants Took a New Angle With Sinkers – Ben Clemens, Fangraphs.com – December 22, 2021
Fortunately, the cupboards are far from bare as the team returns a trio of starting pitchers that contributed 453.2 innings in 83 starts last year. Left-hander Alex Wood along with righties Anthony DeSclafani and Logan Webb remain as the rotation’s nucleus. And if you don’t believe 25-year-old Logan Webb has the chops to lead this unit in 2022, think again. Webb’s 2.72 FIP/2.79 xFIP featured the second-highest ground ball rate (60.7%) amongst starters with at least 100 innings. And he wasn’t a pure contact pitcher either. His 26.5% strikeout rate was so effective coupled with a 4.39 K/BB ratio, speaking highly of his four-pitch arsenal. Assuming the young righty takes on an extra 20+ innings and several more starts, a low-3.00s FIP campaign should produce 4 WAR once again.
A Reinvestment Strategy
Logan Webb’s emergence takes the edge off of losing workhorse Kevin Gausman. Plus the club re-upped with key rotation cogs Anthony DeSclafani and Alex Wood for three- and two-year contracts, respectively. The pair of 31-year-olds are fresh off solid mid-3 FIP seasons with a combined 23 wins. DeSclafani’s best season since his rookie year in Cincinnati included a drastic reduction in the bulky home run rate that plagued his final three years as a Red. Assuming Disco maintains an effective, filthy swing-and-miss slider, expect another mid-2s WAR floor for the righty.
Alex Wood’s highly-effective sinker generated a 50.8% ground ball rate and 2.5 WAR right in line with his career numbers. But the nastiest wrinkle in his repertoire is a slider that made hitters look downright foolish. Wood’s 12.5% swinging strike rate reflected a steady maturation in approach that bodes well for an increased reliance on him as a mid-rotation guy. I still have a little concern with the lefty’s 40.5% hard hit rate, but, realistically, it shouldn’t keep him from repeating with a mid-2s WAR season with a good defense behind him and that wicked out pitch. For this duo, more innings goes a long way towards stabilizing this transitioning rotation – even if their effectiveness drops to the 4.00 FIP range.
Searching For Value
While the entire San Francisco rotation stands to benefit from pitching-coach-on-the-rise Andrew Bailey, his imprint may be most beneficial to 34-year-old Alex Cobb and Tyler Beede, who is currently an unknown quantity. Beede took his lumps in a disappointing 2019 rookie season then faced lower back injuries that derailed him in 2021. Some combination of Tyler, Sammy Long, or other unknown talent will need to serve as much-needed depth and it’s not clear they can.
Cobb adds to the uncertainty. 2018 was his last full season after moving from Tampa Bay to Baltimore, and that’s where his true colors as a 30-year-old 4.00+ FIP starter became evident. Will injuries keep him from making 25 starts? Was last season’s 24.9% strikeout rate a fluke, especially considering that he didn’t crack 100 innings? Regardless, Alex fits the mold that Bailey and Kapler appear to prefer – a sinker ball pitcher who plays right into the Giants’ solid infield defense. 140+ innings at 4.00 FIP would be an ideal result, but anything significantly short of that really puts this group in a tough spot. These unanswered questions make me skeptical about the Giants rotation’s ability to sniff anything close to last year’s success – even when it comes to workload.
— Bullpen —
An anticipated reduction in the rotation’s innings volume directly impacts San Francisco’s relief unit. They just worked the tenth-most innings in the majors and now workhorse ace Kevin Gausman is out of the picture. Granted, this group is largely unchanged from their 2021league-leading 2.99 ERA and second-best 3.71 FIP effort. But you probably already know my perspective on xFIP and BABIP shading future projections. This bullpen posted the second-lowest BABIP (.262) and a 4.20 xFIP nearly a half-run higher than their FIP. They have depth and they have experience, but without any significant infusion of high-leverage talent the Giants bullpen will take a firm step backwards in 2022.
San Francisco Giants Relievers Negative Regression Candidates, 2021 Production
| IP | FIP | xFIP | BABIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Rogers | 81.0 | 3.28 | 3.89 | .278 |
| J. Alvarez | 63.0 | 3.06 | 4.30 | .242 |
| J. McGee | 59.2 | 3.35 | 4.05 | .228 |
| D. Leone | 48.1 | 3.23 | 4.34 | .248 |
There are two saving graces to the rougher road ahead. The first is lanky submariner Taylor Rogers, who partnered with Jake McGee to form one of the best setup duos in the MLB. His regression indicators aren’t as severe as his cohorts, plus he has plenty of positive underlying qualities. For one, his delivery continued to generate 50%+ ground balls and sub-40% hard contact. That sort of thing can trip up the FIP/x FIP connection a little bit. However, the low likelihood that he gets called into 80 games again this season raises concerns for the rest of the bullpen.
A second point of optimism is 24-year-old high-leverage reliever Camillo Doval. The kid is raw talent, with a cutter that can touch 100 mph and a slider that helped achieve a 13.6% swinging strike rate. Unlike most of his bullpen mates, Doval had a significantly better xFIP than FIP (3.47 FIP/2.85 xFIP). But the Giants’ leading closer candidate made just 29 appearances in his 2021 debut – and they were anything but uneventful. Doval saved 3 games, blew 3 save opportunities, and struck out 33.9% of opposing batters. Don’t get me wrong – there are plenty of positives in this bullpen, but workload and regression are key constraints in 2022.
— Position Players —
Unfortunately, the theme of multiple headwinds extends from San Francisco’s pitching staff to their position players. First and foremost, the Giants will be without Hall-of-Fame-Class-of-2027-candidate Buster Posey. I would say 2022 will be the first season without Buster in the lineup, except that the 7-time-All-Star catcher opted out in 2020. Otherwise, the iconic backstop went out on a personal high note – at the plate, anyhow. His .304/.390/.499 line and 140 wRC+ were his best since those 2012-2016 ironman seasons. Now one of the organization’s top prospects, Joey Bart, pairs with veteran backup Curt Casali to help the team move on at the expense of a ~4 WAR net dropoff.
Posey’s retirement is just one breeze in the complicated headwinds that Father Time represents. As Dan Szymborski pointed out this winter, the 22.2 WAR posted by San Francisco’s position players age 30 or older was tops in the MLB. Hell, Buster alone was responsible for 4.9 of those wins! That 30+ crew consisted of key contributors like Brandon Belt, Mike Yastrzemski, Evan Longoria, and Brandon Crawford. Especially Brandon Crawford. Career-best home runs (24), wRC+ (139), and all three components of a .298/.373/.522 slash line led to the shortstop’s third All-Star selection at the age of 34. Although there are few scenarios where Brandon gets close to repeating his phenomenal 5.5 WAR 2021 season, 3 wins are better than what most clubs can boast at this key position. Posey leaving and Crawford aging are the two primary reasons for a 5% reduction in my offensive productivity projection.
Fighting Father Time
First baseman Brandon Belt’s resurgence, despite his 32 years, also raised eyebrows. Granted, his 97 games played in 2021 may have helped concentrate his production into a career-high .597 slugging percentage that buoyed San Francisco’s .440 SLG – a mark that fell right behind the juggernaut Blue Jays, Astros, and Red Sox. Yet elder statesmen like Belt and Evan Longoria missed significant time to injury in 2021, in what could be considered foreshadowing. Surely, Gabe Kapler understands this dynamic.
What this roster lacks in youth, it makes up for in versatility. It’s guys like Wilmer Flores, Thairo Estrada, Austin Slater, and LaMonte Wade who give Kapler flexibility to spell his veterans and fill in at multiple positions. Good ballplayers like these also provide something of a safety net on defense, helping keep San Francisco’s fielding firmly above neutral this season. Unfortunately, good is not quite enough to stay afloat in a top-heavy 2022 NL West that should see the Padres rise back into contention. Here’s the rub – isn’t that what I said last offseason?
WAGER: Giants Under 89.5 Wins -114 (3/13 BetRivers)
Los Angeles Dodgers 2022 Win Total: Open 94.5
2021 Result: Over 101.5 (106-56 / Pythag = 109)
Another year, another 100+ wins for the Dodgers. In fact, make it three of the last four full seasons that they reached that milestone. And if you extrapolate their 43-win 2020 season, tack on another via a 116-win equivalent campaign punctuated by their seventh World Series Championship. Falling short of their title defense last season was tough enough, but losing quite a few key pieces in the offseason challenges their typical depth in 2022 – with their pitching staff, at least. If there’s anything that most of us MLB fans and handicappers are accustomed to these days, it’s the Dodgers being in the championship hunt once again.
Key Personnel Changes
Additions:
- Andrew Heaney – LHP (SP)
- Daniel Hudson – RHP (RP)
Subtractions:
- Max Scherzer – RHP (SP)
- Corey Seager – SS
- Kenley Jansen – RHP (RP) ???
- Joe Kelly – RHP (RP)
- Jimmy Nelson – RHP (RP) ???
- Corey Knebel – RHP (RP)
BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 99 – 105
— Rotation —
Alongside Milwaukee, Los Angeles boasted one of the best – if not the best – rotations in the majors. The midseason trade for Max Scherzer and shortstop Trea Turner telescoped the front office’s commitment to back-to-back World Series Championships. Mad Max did not disappoint. His 7-0 record in 11 starts with the Dodgers featured an oppressive 11.13 K/BB ratio and 1.96 FIP/2.89 xFIP. That’s how you close out a season with a contender.
A pair of younger players will do their best to fill Scherzer’s gap. Walker Buehler and Julio Urias return alongside Dodger legend Clayton Kerhsaw as a talented, homegrown core. Buehler’s ascendency into the role of ace paid dividends with a 207.2 inning, 3.16 FIP/3.57 xFIP gem of a season. Although we have to keep an eye on his recent tick down in velocity as well as strikeout and swinging strike rates, the 27-year-old’s five pitch arsenal took a big step forward. Maybe Walker doesn’t repeat 200 innings in 2022, though 30+ starts at a mid-3.00 FIP level means a healthy 4-5 WAR season.
Buehler’s running mate, 25-year-old southpaw Julio Urias, broke out in his full-time starting role last year. 185.2 innings marked a coming of age as a control-focused 3.13 FIP/3.73 xFIP pitcher. Both Urias and Buehler outperformed their xFIPs, though “regression” back to the 3.50-3.80 level is far from devastating. The caveat here is that both must maintain last season’s durability and make 30+ starts. Urias pitches well to a very good defense behind him by generating plenty of ground balls and weaker contact. Much of that success can be attributed to Julio’s shift toward secondary pitches. The increased reliance on his curveball and changeup paid off in spades. Another season of highly-effective secondaries should get the kid to the 4 WAR level, contributing to an 8-9 WAR top end duo.
Drawing To a Full House
With Scherzer gone and Trevor Bauer’s status doubtful at best, the Dodgers wisely resigned Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw’s 200+ inning seasons may be long gone, but bringing back a beloved 3-WAR, 20+ start lefty for $17M is a no-brainer. Now Andrew Heaney comes to town as a #4 or #5 pitcher instead of the #3, which is often a tipping point for a team’s rotation. Flip a coin whether or not they’ll get the 3.79 FIP 2020 version of the 30-year-old lefty. He has good stuff, but that little detail about him getting smacked – a 39%+ hard hit rate in each of the last three seasons – poses the biggest problem. No part of Heaney’s fastball/slider/changeup arsenal was good last year and pretty much any projection should have trouble ballparking his health.
An ineffective Andrew Heaney gets bailed out by depth in the form of 36-year-old David Price and Tony Gonsolin, neither of whom can carry a full starting pitcher’s workload. Gonsolin has yet to crack 100 innings in an MLB season and a key part of stretching out his season centers on gaining better command. Less walks plus more innings should get him across that threshold and touch a 1 WAR season. He and David Price realistically are mid-4.00 FIP pitchers at this point in their careers. This stout L.A. rotation has plenty of stability and production but short of making another midseason move for a hammer, the 2022 version will be a tick less effective.
— Bullpen —
Kenley Jansen, Joe Kelly, Jimmy Nelson, Corey Knebel. Those are all relievers who left town in the offseason. They’re not just any bullpen arms, however. The foursome provided more than one-quarter of the bullpen’s innings, and did so in high-leverage fashion. Gone are Jansen’s 38 saves, the lion’s share of the club’s league-high 56. Now take a look through the lens of impacts to the 2022 season and consider that all four departed relievers posted career-low BABIPs in 2021. They also accounted for 4.1 of the bullpen’s massive 6.5 WAR. In fact, the Dodgers relief unit had the lowest BABIP (.257) in the majors, making it very logical to expect regression in 2022.
Management picked up at least one viable replacement in Daniel Hudson. He stumbled after being traded to San Diego last summer, but the veteran reliever brings plenty of experience. Can the Dodgers count on a third straight season of 30+ K% at the ripe age of 34? Maybe, though simply serving as a reliable sub-4.00 FIP reliever should suffice with Blake Treinen stepping into the closer role. Treinen bounced back nicely with a healthy 2.88 FIP/3.25 xFIP, 1.8 WAR campaign after a rough departure from Oakland in 2019. Especially if Blake’s sinker comes back to life, an improved cutter and slider should keep him in the low-to-mid 3.00 FIP range.
Treinen and Hudson need a big supporting cast to run this bullpen back as a top 10 unit. That’s where lefty specialist Alex Vesia, 23-year-old flamethrower Brusdar Graterol, and rookie Phil Bickford come in. All three need to hang in and deliver 50+ outings to pick up most of the departed relievers’ slack. These five could be sneaky good, though last year’s bar is just too high for the bullpen as a whole to realistically top. Any depth issues in the rotation could lead to greater relief pitcher usage – and lower performance as a whole without a key addition or two.
— Position Players —
You’ll have to look back a ways to find a below-average offensive year for the Dodgers – 2016 to be exact. Aside from that down-ish year, one of L.A.’s calling cards for the last decade is a prolific lineup fueled by a robust farm system. 2021 was no different in terms of runs (830, 4th most), on-base percentage (.330, 4th highest), and slugging (.429, 7th highest). Their effectiveness blended power with plate discipline, blasting the 4th most home runs in the majors. And aside from Max Muncy’s 36 bombs, consistency and power were dispersed throughout the lineup – so any measurable dropoff in 2022 would require major stumbles from three or four of their key cogs.
Los Angeles Dodgers Hitters with 20+ HR, 2021
| AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Muncy | .249 | .368 | .527 | 36 | 140 |
| J. Turner | .278 | .361 | .471 | 27 | 127 |
| W. Smith | .258 | .365 | .495 | 25 | 130 |
| M. Betts | .264 | .367 | .487 | 23 | 131 |
| AJ Pollock | .297 | .355 | .536 | 21 | 137 |
| C. Taylor | .254 | .344 | .438 | 20 | 113 |
| T. Turner | .328 | .375 | .536 | 28 | 142 |
In contrast to the pitching staff, the Dodgers position player corps is about as stable as they come. Especially in turnover from last season to this one. Plus their only key departure, shortstop Corey Seager, was replaced in spectacular fashion by Washington’s Trea Turner. Acquisition of the speedy five-tool player conservatively marks a lateral move at this premium position. Trea is an upgrade from Seager due to improved chances of providing more playing time. I cannot expect another 6.9 WAR campaign out of the 28-year-old; however, 6 wins are quite realistic out of this phenom.
Los Angeles’ roster consistency – and, especially, the high productivity within it – leads me to expect more of the same on both offense and defense in 2022. Small tradeoffs between Mookie Betts, Corey Bellinger, Justin Turner, and AJ Pollock should essentially even themselves out over the long haul, especially if Betts and Bellinger have fully recovered from last season’s injuries. I must discount Pollock’s recent power surge and Justin Turner’s ironman season at the age of 36. Turner’s 612 plate appearances marked the second most since 2016, so expecting less in 2022 is the only responsible way to project the third baseman. Plus it is hard to imagine getting a worse season out of Cody Bellinger (2021: 95 games, .165/.240/.302, .196 BABIP). Mix in some flexible bench players like Max Beatty and Gavin Lux for depth, and this Dodgers lineup sets up strongly once again.
WAGER: Dodgers Over 94.5 Wins -115 (3/13 DraftKings)
San Diego Padres 2022 Win Total: Open 90.5
2021 Result: Under 94.5 (79-83 / Pythag = 83)
As extraordinary as the Padres’ 2020 season was, the pendulum swung the other way last year. Though not as extreme, San Diego’s second half collapse earned an equal but opposite amount of disbelief as NL-West-counterpart San Francisco’s ramp up. Naturally, I was off on my “fade the Padres” bet by a year – I shorted their season win total when they caught fire in 2020 – and kept my tail between my legs last season. Does their win total get me off the sidelines this year? I mean, this is far from a .500 roster, right?
Key Personnel Changes
Additions:
- Luis Garcia – RHP (RP)
- Nick Martinez – RHP (SP)
Subtractions:
- Mark Melancon – RHP (RP)
- Daniel Hudson – RHP (RP)
BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 91 – 93
— Position Players —
August 11, 2021: the day when San Diego’s season changed dramatically. An unassuming 7-0 loss to the Miami Marlins started a 12-33 crash that took the Padres out of the playoff hunt and into sub-.500 territory to finish the season. The skid that led to Jayce Tingler’s firing – and, ultimately, Bob Melvin’s hiring – was an all-in effort that started with the offense. Those closing weeks were reminiscent of the 2017 & 2018 seasons, where offense was at a premium!
San Diego Padres Offense, 2021
| AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | .242 | .321 | .401 | 97 |
| Thru Aug. 10 | .249 | .330 | .413 | 103 |
| Aug. 11 Forward | .227 | .299 | .371 | 83 |
Second half collapse aside, the foundation for last year’s letdown was laid in the 2020 sprint. The “small sample size” blues struck a number of Padres position players transitioning from the short 60-game season to the full 2021 campaign. Even key midseason acquisition Adam Frazier got sucked into the San Diego black hole. The former Pirate slashed .305/.368/.411 in what I’d easily characterize as a very good season for a middle infielder. But the good part of Frazier’s successful 114 wRC+ campaign stayed behind in Pittsburgh. His rocky .267/.327/.335, 85 wRC+ tenure with the Friars was anything but trade worthy.
With Frazier gone to Seattle, it all comes back to the core of this lineup, Fernando Tatis, Jr., plus six everyday players who experienced a big reality check at the plate after the COVID-shortened 2020 season. And in terms of looking ahead, 2021 sure looks to be a better barometer than 2020.
San Diego Padres Selected Hitters’ wRC+, 2020-2022
| 2020 | 2021 | 2022* | |
|---|---|---|---|
| T. Grisham (CF) | 122 | 103 | 110 |
| E. Hosmer (1B) | 128 | 102 | 95 |
| M. Machado (3B) | 150 | 122 | 125 |
| W. Myers (OF) | 155 | 109 | 104 |
| A. Nola (C) | 127 | 100 | 100 |
| J. Profar (INF) | 112 | 85 | 90 |
I was punished greatly by my lack of confidence in Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers going into the 2020 season, though their true colors shined in August 2021. Now the consensus projections point to another step backwards for those two. It’s not all doom and gloom though, as the outlook for Trent Grisham and Manny Machado help to balance out the decliners. Picking up another offense-first corner outfielder surely won’t hurt the cause either. This lineup leaves me very conflicted in terms of whether their first half 103 wRC+ is more indicative of the season ahead, or if the end result of 97 wRC+ is reality. At this point, my expectation is smack dab in the middle: about 3% better than 2021.
Missing from the above list are prominent middle infielders Jake Croenenworth and Fernando Tatis, Jr. The inflated BABIP monster led to modest regression from Croenenworth, yet the second baseman was far from a bust in 2021. Sure, we may see another small step back after Jake’s modest drop from .285/.354/.477 in 2020 to .266/.340/.460. Otherwise, the status quo will not hurt the team. His double play partner, however, should continue on his steady progression higher if the injury bug avoids him. Tatis is one of the team’s outliers having actually improved from 150 to 156 wRC+! And all indications point toward his 42-homer, .282/.364/.611 output being his 2022 floor. Consider me bullish on Fernando getting over the fielding yips and Grisham being sharper, in turn leading to a slightly-improved San Diego defense.
— Rotation —
The August 11th witching day claimed more than just the Padres offense. San Diego’s rotation took a gut punch of over 1 run to its FIP, leading to a miserable 5-23 record by their starting pitchers. Granted, less run support did not help the cause. But when you dig into exactly who was making starts late in the season, the context becomes clearer. Jake Arrieta, Vince Velasquez, and Ryan Weathers each made 4 starts that combined for a paltry 39.2 innings with ERAs of 8.50 or greater. In terms of value, these 12 starts actually deducted 1.0 WAR!
San Diego Padres Rotation, 2021
| W – L | FIP | xFIP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 36 – 52 | 4.21 | 3.98 |
| Thru Aug. 10 | 31 – 29 | 3.97 | 3.91 |
| Aug. 11 Forward | 5 – 23 | 4.89 | 4.18 |
Despite all that, I believe this unit has the horses to compete in the NL West. 29-year-old Joe Musgrove transitioned well from his low-key days in Pittsburgh to heading up the rotation of a playoff contender. Especially after reaching the 180-inning mark last season, Musgrove appears to have settled into being a 3+ WAR workhorse with a five-pitch repertoire. Underlying metrics like a 12.7% swinging strike rate, 3.76 K/BB ratio, and 43.5% ground ball rate set him up for another sub-4.00 FIP campaign.
With the #1 starter slot nailed down, the Padres look for the experienced pair of Yu Darvish and Blake Snell to hang in for an additional 30 innings or so over 2021’s workload. Darvish’s shift towards being a crafty veteran hinged on using his dependable slider more. Although his whiff and ground ball rates were down when compared to the last several seasons, the 35-year-old can provide 3-win value with another 30-start season. It’s those multi-homer outings that you have to watch out for. Still, both Darvish and Snell are sub-4.00 FIP starters with the skillset to materially bolster this unit.
Strangely enough, Blake Snell made three straight 7+ inning starts in September in the face of his tendency to break down deep in games. Snell yielded only 1 run to the Dodgers, shut out the Diamondbacks, and gave up 2 runs to the Angels in those late-season starts. Tack on another 20-30 innings this year and the 29-year-old lefty should provide mid-2.0 WAR value unless his key metrics continue to slide. Whether or not his secondary curve and changeup continue to turn their backs on him is likely to define his 2022 season. Still, I have concerns with Snell’s spike in walks, career-high 40.9% hard hit rate, and lowest swinging strike rate since 2017. Assuming the offense can provide more consistent run support, this 9-WAR top three has enough oomph to lead an improved rotation.
An Influx of Innings
The biggest upside of this rotation comes from a pair of starters who were non-contributors to the Padres in 2021: Mike Clevinger and Nick Martinez. San Diego traded for Mike Clevinger in 2020. He made three very good starts before suffering an elbow injury that led to Tommy John surgery. Although we truly don’t know how the guy is dealing at this point, Clevinger is another sub-4.00 FIP arm with good swing-and-miss stuff that helps avoid hard contact. Assuming that the 31-year-old can make 20+ starts, he should add at least 2 WAR of value.
So where do the Padres go with righty Chris Paddack after a pair of disappointing seasons? Spot starter, bullpen depth, emergency arm? If AJ Preller and the front office’s signing of Nick Martinez says anything, it’s that Paddack will have to take whatever opportunities come his way. Martinez spent the last four seasons in Japan, where he found strikeouts and more velocity – not a bad combination at all. Expectations for the former Texas Ranger to make 20+ starts hinges on whether the progress that Nick made overseas translates back to the MLB. If so, this rotation stands to have five sub-4.00 FIP arms on Opening Day. Otherwise, Chris Paddack will likely get another shot to dial up that 2019 rookie magic.
Reality smacked no one harder than up-and-comer Dinelson Lamet. Injuries derailed any chance of repeating his 2020 breakout season, ultimately landing him in a relief role after returning from the IL in September. And with what seems to be a fully-stocked rotation for 2022, Lamet is likely to rebuild in the bullpen. Aside from middle relief, the 29-year-old can effectively meet the inevitable need for spot starts or even spot closes as an upper-3.00s FIP righty. More depth and more options are essential to the rotation’s rebound, and that’s what Martinez, Paddack, and Lamet offer Bob Melvin in the season ahead.
— Bullpen —
As you’ve figured out by now, no aspect of this Padres team was immune from the August meltdown. Their bullpen also fell victim to the tidal wave, posting a losing record and more blown saves than conversions from August 11th through the end of the season. All of this reversal of fortune came via a collective FIP and xFIP that were more than one run higher than the first 4+ months. You can argue the rotation’s inability to eat innings ultimately caught up with this group. Their 688.1 innings pitched were second most behind Tampa Bay and well above the Orioles, Angels, and Pirates.
San Diego Padres Bullpen, 2021
| W – L | SV | BS | FIP | xFIP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | 43 – 31 | 43 | 23 | 4.14 | 4.18 |
| Thru Aug. 10 | 36 – 20 | 39 | 18 | 3.78 | 3.86 |
| Aug. 11 Forward | 7 – 11 | 4 | 5 | 4.97 | 4.94 |
A bullpen breaking down from overuse is certainly not a Padres-specific issue. While the Rays may intentionally lean on their relief unit as part of their overall pitching staff philosophy, San Diego and other high-usage clubs backed into this suboptimal situation. Multiple middle relievers simply limped to the season’s end with inflated numbers from August 11th onward as the team played themselves out of the postseason:
- D. Lamet – 5.06 FIP/4.82 xFIP, 11 appearances
- A. Adams – 6.02 FIP/7.14 xFIP, 16 appearances
- T. Hill – 7.38 FIP/6.21 xFIP, 23 appearances
- E. Pagan – 8.50 FIP/6.23 xFIP, 17 appearances
All four of these relievers are on the 40-man roster as of this article’s publishing. So the job of not repeating last year’s collapse involves bigger, sustained contributions from the rotation, which I think San Diego’s starting pitchers can provide. Less volume at a similar 4.00ish FIP is very possible despite the loss of closer Mark Melancon to Arizona. He was one of the few who held strong as a mid-3.00s FIP performer through the entire season with 39 saves and only 6 blown saves. Now Melancon’s absence opens the door for Pierce Johnson and his filthy curve to run with the closer duties. The main knock on Johnson is him being a one-trick pony, though repeating his curveball’s success should soften the blow of losing the dependable Melancon.
For the most part, San Diego returns the majority of last year’s group – which is not necessarily a bad thing. Even without Melancon, the Padres bullpen sets up as better than average with a FIP right around 4.00. The major caveat hinges on the rotation’s ability to absorb an additional 80 innings over last season. Guys like Austin Adams, Tim Hill, Emilio Pagan, and swingman Craig Stammen are effective relievers when they aren’t ridden hard down the stretch.
Colorado Rockies 2022 Win Total: Open 67.5
2021 Result: Over 63.5 (74-87 / Pythag = 75)
The Rockies sure fooled me last year. My season win total under ticket was destined for the scrap heap as they systematically knocked off a wide range of teams in the Mile High City. There truly was no place like home as Colorado finished the season 48-33 at Coors Field despite letting one slip away to the Cardinals on July 2nd right in front of my eyes. Has this reduced-star-power version of the Rockies found something to grow from, or are they in line for a tougher road in 2022? After last year’s call, I realize I may not be the best person to answer that!
Key Personnel Changes
Additions:
- Jose Iglesias – SS
Subtractions:
- Trevor Story – SS
- Jon Gray – RHP (SP)
BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 54 – 67
— Rotation —
Much to the chagrin of their opponents, Colorado’s pitching staff managed to put up slightly better numbers in their hitter-friendly ballpark. Mile-high veterans German Marquez, Antonio Senzatela, and Jon Gray battled through Coors’ dimensional and atmospheric disadvantages with the help of strong ground ball rates. Unfortunately for manager Bud Black, his rotation lost a cornerstone when Gray left for Texas in free agency. That’s tough considering the 150+ innings of bulk that the 30-year-old regularly handled at a 2-3 WAR pace.
Familiar Faces
Fortunately, the team still has stability throughout its pitching staff. German Marquez, Antonio Senzatela, and Kyle Freeland have a combined 13+ years in the majors – all with Colorado. In terms of volume, Marquez is the rotation’s workhorse having ramped nicely into a 180+ inning expectation after shouldering 162-196 innings in each of his last four full seasons. The 27-year-old has quietly exceeded the 3-WAR threshold since his breakout 2018 campaign, leading to a five-year deal. Where the questions for 2022 lie is in how German deals with a 1-mph drop in velocity and steady falloff in swinging strike rate, which was still a very good 12.0% last year. Outside of a drastic drop in these key indicators, expect business as usual from this Colorado mainstay.
After earning a five-year extension, the expectation for Antonio Senzatela is a big step forward into a 180+ inning starter. As he joins Marquez in shouldering more responsibility, the question is whether a top-end starting pitcher who relies on contact needs a third pitch. The bad thing is that his increased dependency on the slider yielded reduced effectiveness. Still, Antonio has very good control and furthered his profile as a ground ball machine – benefitting from one of 2021’s best defenses behind him. Even if he cannot repeat 3.61 FIP/4.17 xFIP-type of production, additional volume should keep him around a 3-win valuation in 2022.
Otherwise, it’s tough to find a ton of upside with Kyle Freeland and Austin Gomber outside of bigger workloads. They fit the mold of mid-4.00s FIP, mid-rotation arms who should contribute value around 2.0 wins with more bulk. Granted the assumption is that both won’t fall off while being pushed to the 160-inning range. With unknowns surrounding durability and depth, Colorado’s rotation has value around their 2021 mark, with a slight bias toward underperforming by 1 win.
— Bullpen —
Projecting Colorado’s relief unit comes down to one principle: where there is no change, expect more of the same. It’s been tough sledding for this group since the days of Adam Ottavino, Wade Davis, and Scott Oberg back in 2018. This new era of Carlos Estevez, 36-year-old Daniel Bard, and Robert Stephenson holding down the back end, unfortunately, produced bottom-third WAR, ERA, FIP, strikeouts, walks, and home runs. Not that these three are the problem per se; it’s more that they’ve been elevated to high-leverage roles without the talent and depth to keep them in more suitable middle relief positions. There just isn’t any significant upside to this group without quality reinforcements brought into the mix.
— Position Players —
It’s been years since the Rockies fielded a lineup that hit anywhere near league average after adjusting for venue. With a front office and ownership that appears to be more interested in what the club can get rid of on an annual basis, fans watched Nolan Arenado get traded last year and Trevor Story walk out the door this offseason. As for the large hole left by Arenado at third base, the Rockies may have found their man in Ryan McMahon. The 27-year-old infielder manned both second and third bases exceptionally well last season while slashing .254/.331/.449 with 23 homers and a 95 wRC+. In fact, his production exceeded Nolan’s 2020 numbers despite Colorado’s failed platoon-ish arrangement with Joshua Fuentes.
This year’s damage control focus shifts to shortstop. Much like the Nolan Arenado situation, Trevor Story leaves town on a down note. Replacing the 2x All-Star’s .251/.329/.471 and 100 wRC+ is certainly less daunting than if he bailed a couple years earlier. Speedy infielder Garrett Hampson appears to be the heir to this premium fielding position with the more powerful Brendan Rodgers joining him in the middle infield. Unfortunately, the team loses about 30% offensively at shortstop with Hampson while taking a firm step backwards in the field. Plus Garrett’s speed is devalued by his struggles to get on base consistently (career .298 OBP) and questionable splits against right-handed pitching.
A Cast of Characters
The defensive drop-off from Story’s departure and expectations for regression from McMahon at third base knock the team’s defense down about 15%. Regardless, the Rockies should maintain their stature as one of the better fielding teams in baseball. Most of Colorado’s fielding strength still lies with the infield, though no offense is intended to an outfield full of decent defenders. A recent wrinkle to the Rockies offense, prototypical big-hitting first baseman CJ Cron and his career 113 wRC+ were extended for another two years. Cron has matured into the fairly reliable .500+ slugger that this lineup so desperately needs after Arenado and Story left town. Can a Cron-McMahon infield tandem be the new driving force?
While the Rox’ corner infielders appear to be the real deals – albeit with modest 2-win projections – the remaining cast likely defines this lineup’s big picture. The catcher spot has some offensive promise with Elias Diaz more so than Dom Nunez, but the outfield is much more pivotal. The excess real estate at Coors Field further accentuates this phenomenon. Rockies living legend Charlie Blackmon recently suffered the fate shared by many an aging center fielder: being put in the corner. Hence the trio of twenty-somethings – Sam Hilliard, Yonathan Daza, and Garrett Hampson – that filled the big gap nicely last year. Their collective problem just so happens to be hitting.
Instead, the outfield leans on Charlie Blackmon and Connor Joe as .270/.350/.450 contributors with Raimel Tapia and Yonathan Daza providing support off the bench. It’s a scenario where the regulars provide the power while the subs bring the speed. Put everyone in a blender and the Rockies have a 90-ish wRC+ outfield unit that can make Coors work in their favor. On the road, however, the mix goes sour – to the tune of league-worst offensive production in 2021. I cannot imagine a base-case scenario in which Colorado has a worse offense than last season, but improvement in 2022 is unlikely.
Arizona Diamondbacks 2022 Win Total: Open 65.5
2021 Result: Under 74.5 (52-110 / Pythag = 61)
Arizona’s plummet to the bottom proved to be the corresponding curveball to Colorado for my 2021 outlooks. We don’t give out participation trophies, but the Diamondbacks put forth one of the larger actual-to-pythag win total deltas last year: 9 unrealized wins. Then again, when you slug .382 (fourth-lowest in the MLB) offensive production is unreliably lumpy. Inconsistency certainly did not help the Snakes’ position as sitting ducks in the division, where they suffered a brutal 22-54 record.
Key Personnel Changes
Additions:
- Mark Melancon – RHP (RP)
Subtractions:
- Kole Calhoun – OF
BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 57 – 66
— Position Players —
Arguably one of the club’s biggest failures was their unwillingness to progress their prospects when the season quickly died on the vine. Favoring 30-something retreads Asdrubal Cabrera, Josh Reddick, and David Peralta isn’t quite the way to work a franchise out the dumps. Regardless, it was tough to watch defensive stalwart Nick Ahmed slash .221/.280/.339 while his fielding continued to tail off from the shortstop’s last Gold Glove season in 2019. He and natural second baseman Ketel Marte – who was a defensive mismatch in center field for much of 2021 – could not help the D-backs avoid the third-worst DRS mark in the majors (-47).
It’s all upside from here, right? Marte should back up his stellar season at the plate (.318/.377/.532) and help improve the team’s fielding with a return to second base and, not incidentally, help keep him healthy. But one man can only do so much. The franchise’s trajectory is at an inflection point created by rolling out a combination of mid-20s players with a year+ of MLB experience and up-and-coming prospects. While this won’t quickly create a winning scenario, the upcoming season should be all about bringing the “future” that much closer to the here and now. Right now, I’m looking at a modest 1-3% improvement offensively and a positive return to neutral in the field.
Arizona’s Position Player Prospect Pipeline
- C/OF Daulton Varsho – whether behind the plate or in the outfield, Varsho is a plus-DRS defender with good hitting skills
- SS Geraldo Perdomo – an excellent-in-the-field 22-year-old with great speed, though hitting is still a question mark
- OF Cooper Hummel – a switch hitter with corner outfielder abilities who slashed .353/.429/.575 in AAA last season
- CF Alek Thomas – 21-year-old with speed, power, and great fielding skills with a doubles-laden .369/.434/.658 slash line in AAA
— Rotation —
Hopes weren’t necessarily high for Arizona’s rotation last year, aside from those for rising star Zac Gallen. 2020 saw Madison Bumgarner whiff in his D-backs debut and Merrill Kelly’s first year in the majors – in the U.S., that is – was only so-so. Ironically, it was Gallen who flipped the script in 2021 by coughing up 19 homers, a booming 42.4% hard hit rate, and a half-run bump in FIP – and every pitch in his repertoire other than the fastball cratered in effectiveness. All three finished the season with 4+ FIPs and ERAs, the only pitchers on the staff that logged more than 66 innings as starters.
Kelly and MadBum are essentially the same players that we saw on the mound last year. If Bumgarner outpaces his mid-4 FIP expectation early in the season, there is a very good chance that the 11-year vet will be shipped before the trade deadline. Realistically, the 2022 Arizona rotation consists of Zac Gallen and various sub-2 WAR arms. Gallen’s likely performance level still lies around 3 WAR, assuming incoming pitching coach Brent Strom can get the 26-year-old’s changeup back on track as a dangerous swing-and-miss out pitch. Still, the biggest issue facing the club is a lack of depth behind this ho-hum trio. If anything, job #1 for next season is to simply hold everything together while the farm system develops talent.
— Bullpen —
It’s really tough to develop any sense of positivity with the D-backs bullpen. AL West castoffs JB Wendelken and Noe Ramirez join forces with household name Joe Mantiply to anchor a bullpen that continues to be a work in progress. Last year this group challenged the Baltimore relief unit as league-worst in several areas with accomplishments like these:
- -1.2 WAR (worst)
- 7.75 K/9 innings (worst)
- .313 BABIP (worst, aided by poor fielding)
- 6 more blown saves than saves (worst)
- 4.85 FIP (28th)
- 22-41 record
There must be some law of mathematics that states you cannot be that bad in consecutive seasons, so I’ll go out on a limb and project a modest improvement. Plus the D-backs snagged a super-reliable righty in Mark Melancon who saved 39 games last season at the ripe age of 36. Every team needs a steady arm or three that can handle high-leverage situations, even if a proven vet like Melancon costs you $7M per year. His cutter and curve produced yet another 55%+ ground ball, mid-3.00s FIP campaign. Mark offers to plug the dam a bit and pluck off the low-hanging fruit also known as 28 blown saves. Otherwise, there’s not much more I can say about this group – and entire team, for that matter – aside from positive regression being their best friend in 2022.
2022 NL West Projected Standings
- Los Angeles Dodgers (103-59)
- San Diego Padres (92-70)
- San Francisco Giants (75-87)
- Colorado Rockies (63-99)
- Arizona Diamondbacks (60-102)
And We’re Back!!!
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