I saved the best for last. The World Series Champion Atlanta Braves brought the hardware back to the NL East after a slow start to the season. It was impressively opposite of the Mets’ summer swoon that landed them with a below-.500 record behind the sneaky Phillies. There’s a ton of work to be done to defend the crown in 2022 and the division’s fiercest competition put their money on the line to overtake Atlanta. Only time will tell if it was enough.
This is one in a series of six Divisional Futures Previews for the 2022 MLB season – each a combination of art, science, and everything in between resting on player projections from some of the sharpest minds in statistical analysis – and the starting point for our season-long and daily handicaps. This annual tradition is an incremental process from season to season that’s full of blood, sweat, and tears. As always, thanks to our loyal readers and BOL this season! (Win totals referenced in each team’s header are courtesy of DraftKings.)
2021 Division & World Series Champions: Atlanta Braves
2021 NL East Standings
- Atlanta Braves (88-73)
- Philadelphia Phillies (82-80)
- New York Mets (77-85)
- Miami Marlins (67-95)
- Washington Nationals (65-97)
Atlanta Braves 2022 Win Total: Open 89.5, Now 90.5
2021 Result: Under 91.5 (88-73 / Pythag = 94)
The Atlanta Braves without Freddie Freeman just doesn’t feel right. And for the first year since 2009, Braves Country won’t have #5 at first base. Despite a slow start to his MVP title defense, Freeman eventually picked up steam right through the playoffs. No Acuna? No problem. The Braves marched their way to the franchise’s fourth World Series Championship. They may not be the favorite to repeat, but something tells me this team won’t miss a beat in 2022.
Key Personnel Changes
Additions:
- Manny Pina – C
- Kirby Yates – RHP (RP)
- Matt Olson – 1B
- Collin McHugh – RHP (RP)
- Kenley Jansen – RHP (RP)
Subtractions:
- Freddie Freeman – 1B
- Joc Pederson – OF
- Cristian Pache – OF
- Chris Martin – RHP (RP)
- Drew Smyly – LHP (SP)
- Ehire Adrianza – INF
- Jorge Soler – OF
BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 90 – 96
— Position Players —
Losing Freddie Freeman to the Braves’ biggest NL Pennant challenger sure stings. But all is not lost. Freeman’s future in Atlanta was sealed when the club shipped Cristian Pache, Shea Langeliers, and two pitching prospects for Oakland’s most valuable player, Matt Olson. The team’s farm system takes a hit from the trade package, though in the short term Olson has the chops to essentially replace Freddie one-for-one. Maybe not so much in spirit though.
Freeman’s back-loaded 4.5 win campaign shares a lot of similarities with expectations for Olson’s 2022. Freddie offers more in terms of pure average while Matt offers more power. The 27-year-old has developed into an aggressive hitter who, frankly, hit pretty much any type of pitch hurled at him. And there’s very little lefty-righty split dropoff with him. On top of smashing 39 home runs with a gaudy .271/.371/.540 slash line, the former Athletic logged a fifth straight positive defensive season at first. So the defensive edge lies with Olson – regardless of runs saved or zone rating. It should not take long for the Braves faithful to embrace their new first baseman.
Holding It Down
Otherwise, Atlanta boasts a ton of stability in their lineup. Ronald Acuna, Jr. is close to returning from last summer’s ACL surgery – latest indications point toward a May debut. Thanks to the addition of the designated hitter in the National League, Acuna can get his hacks in without playing the field. Preferably he’ll pick right back up where he left off in July. Ronald smacked 24 homers, slashed .283/.394/.596, and stole 17 bases in just 82 games before injury. 4.2 WAR in that half season alone was a torrid MVP pace – a reasonable expectation for his five month season to come. Perhaps 2021’s power numbers should be adjusted a tick down, otherwise expect nothing less than excellence from the dynamic 24-year-old.
Re-signing corner outfielder Eddie Rosario while letting Jorge Soler walk doesn’t bother me. It’s much easier to remember Soler being spectacular in Atlanta (134 wRC+) as opposed to his miserable first half in Kansas City (78 wRC+). After all, that’s the same scenario Eddie played into (86 wRC+ with Cleveland, 133 with Atlanta). So with Rosario and Acuna on the roster, they have 8 legitimate 20+ home run hitters. They join Ozzie Albies, Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley, and Matt Olson as .260+ hitters that can flat out get on base. That’s the sort of lineup needed to overcome the tough starting pitching of the NL East. Plus the Braves sport an above-average defense to boot. Their fielding acumen should be slightly better with Olson at first and a backup catcher swap, but I’ll lean to the conservative side and call it a year-over-year wash around 50 runs saved.
Slugging For the Win
Freddie Freeman’s slow start and Ronald Acuna, Jr.’s unfortunate exit were significant monkey wrenches thrown in the gears. Yet this offense overcame unremarkable batting average and on-base numbers with power. Atlanta’s .435 slugging was fifth best and their 239 home runs were third most. That formula for efficiency and consistency powered this lineup and the numbers call for a repeat. Acuna and Olson aside, the 20-something trio of Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies, and Dansby Swanson combined for 11.6 WAR and project with little dropoff in 2022. While Riley’s breakout season came with the baggage of a .368 BABIP, his power is legit and a 30-point drop in average wouldn’t be the end of the world. Albies experienced close to an opposite effect with his average and peripherals slipping in ’21, though a career high 36.8% hard hit rate and .278 BABIP bodes well for a step back up.
Throw shortstop Dansby Swanson’s .250 average with doubles and bombs into the 6th-7th slot of the lineup. Granted, his glove may or may not treat him well this season – another reason why I’m holding the line on this year’s team defense. I like the D’Arnaud-Pina catching tandem from a defensive perspective better than last year’s D’Arnaud-Contreras pairing. Plus the Acuna-less outfield configuration of Adam Duvall, Eddie Rosario, and Marcell Ozuna offers upside with the latter. That’s assuming that Ozuna’s unceremonious return does not have long-term implications on performance. These .450-.500 sluggers will support another powerful offensive display from this Braves lineup with little overall adjustment to their productivity numbers.
— Rotation —
Much like their position player corps, the Braves rotation simply needed to be good enough during the 2021 regular season. And that they were. Nothing on the macro level indicates anything exceptional, though their strikeout, walk, and home run rates were all firmly above average. What makes all this truly good enough was doing so with a 57-40 record across the seventh most innings (837.0) in the majors. And the defending World Series Champions intend to trot out four starters that contributed close to 70% of last season’s workload. Consider the departure of Drew Smyly, Bryse Wilson, and their mid-5.00 FIPs the cliched addition by subtraction.
Even at the ripe age of 38, Charlie Morton offers a ton of value to this young-ish group of starting pitchers. Everything seemed to click for him after leaving Pittsburgh six years ago aside from an injury-derailed 2016 in Philadelphia. Since then, Morton has consistently delivered 3+ K/BB ratios and good swinging strike, ground ball, and hard contact rates. The elder statesman’s post-Pittsburgh shift towards a backbreaking curveball has paid dividends, including a 33-start, 3.18 FIP/3.31 xFIP 2021 season. While projections are more muted from that 4.6 WAR effort, the general consensus for 3+ WAR and mid-3.00 FIP makes Charlie a cornerstone starter in 2022.
Bring in the Young Guns
Whether Charlie Morton or Max Fried gets the Opening Day nod matters much less than their durability through the season. That’s an obvious statement but one that should not be overlooked after these two combined for 61 starts and 351.1 innings. And 2022 sets up as Fried’s ascent to the top after demonstrating reliability the past three years. Manager Brian Snitker wants to see that next gear out of his 28-year-old lefty via 6+ inning starts like the way he left off in ’21. This could be that 30-start, 180-inning campaign that the Braves need to maintain their position in the NL East.
The way that Max does it – initiate weaker, ground ball contact in lieu of working deep counts – bodes well for this objective. Fried’s mid-90s fastball/sinker continues to be rock solid, though it’s the secondaries that have fueled his recent effectiveness. The 10-mph delta between fastball and slider, and 20 mph fastball-curve differential fuel his deceptiveness. While we’re talking about deception, the jury is out on Ian Anderson’s release point and fastball-changeup combo. Anderson’s effectively wild 4.12 FIP/3.96 xFIP rookie season was less about strikeouts and more about getting his mechanics in check. Whether that translates to a 30-start, sub-4.00 FIP 2022 likely depends on curbing a hard hit rate that grew to 38.7%. A reasonable base case scenario checks this Fried-Morton-Anderson trio in around 9-10 WAR, well on their way to keeping the Braves rotation firmly above average.
Digging Deep
Those three are all but locked in, yet it takes five or six viable starters to fuel a 162-game marathon. One such candidate is Huascar Ynoa and a self-inflicted summer hiatus that raises questions about his long term performance level. And those questions will be stress tested with an expectation for 20+ starts, starting with last season’s pre- and post-IL numbers. Calls for a less impressive 2022 hinge on a K/BB ratio closer to 3 and a FIP right around 4.00. Steamer’s projection for a figure closer to mid-4.00 sits on an island, which is entirely possible given Huascar’s second half finish. But the kid is still 23 years old and another mid-1.0 WAR season is suitable for a #4 starter. This time, it will come with a greater workload.
Huascar Ynoa, 2021 Split Season
| Starts | FIP | xFIP | K/BB | Hard Hit% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thru 5/16 | 8 | 3.77 | 3.16 | 4.55 | 47.9% |
| 8/17 Onward | 9 | 4.08 | 3.64 | 3.57 | 38.9% |
The trials and tribulations of Mike Soroka’s Achilles tendon leaves the door open for another upstart. As the Braves await his midseason return, it appears that Tucker Davidson is in line to round out the rotation. A successful Soroka rebound could add 1+ WAR to the mix but there’s no guarantee after such a long recovery and rehab. Like many up-and-comers, however, there are tradeoffs with Davidson’s projections.
Davidson only made eight starts across MLB/Triple-A as well as an impromptu playoff appearance, but he was excellent in the four MLB starts before a forearm injury derailed the debut. He avoided the dreaded Tommy John surgery that often follows these forearm injuries and hopefully he is in the clear for ’22 and beyond. He has a three-pitch mix with heavy slider usage that hints at some strikeout upside (13% SwStr, but only a 22% K rate), too.
2021 Roster Review: Atlanta Braves – Paul Sporer / FanGraphs.com – November 22, 2021
Expectations for a dozen mid-to-upper 4.00 FIP starts comes with a backup plan in Kyle Muller. The 6’7″ southpaw fixes to be starter #5B assuming he knocks the rough edges off in the minors. A hefty 13.5% walk rate plagued his MLB debut, leading to a wide 3.73 FIP/4.93 xFIP discrepancy. I doubt that his upper-4.00 FIP projection moves the needle much this season but the big fella could be a role player in this sturdy rotation. Solid once again.
— Bullpen —
Atlanta’s relievers pulled their weight during the World Series run right in line with the rest of the team. Nothing outstanding, just top half performance and results. Bullpen staples like closer Will Smith, Luke Jackson, Tyler Matzek, and AJ Minter locked down 40 saves. Matzek and Minter were especially effective at keeping the ball in the yard and generating 12% or better swinging strike rates. Although I’ve been skeptical of Luke Jackson since a handful of his rough outings bit me in previous seasons, last year was an impressive return to form for the 30-year-old. Jackson’s 1.98 ERA grabs your attention while his underlying metrics like 52.5% ground ball rate and 3.66 FIP/3.76 xFIP also check plenty of boxes. Fortunately, his slider came back to life after a rusty 2020 and could negative the after effects of a .253 BABIP.
More Back End Firepower
Now this crew gains longtime Dodger closer Kenley Jansen to pair with Will Smith. Smith converted 37 of the team’s 40 saves last year and shares these responsibilities with a fellow 30%+ K veteran. At this point, I’m unclear how Snitker will manage this pair of bona fide closers. But as long as neither guy gets too bent out of shape this unit sets up to be no worse than last season. However, there may be some concern with Smith’s home run-yielding trend the past few years. That’s what makes the Jansen addition even more important. After all, he consistently posts sub-30% hard hit rates and 15% swinging strike rates. We’ll see how 2022 pans out on the heels of a .213 BABIP and 12.9% walk rate that was highest since his rookie year.
Underlying Jansen’s 2021 resurgence was a reinvention. From 2010-18, he threw his cut fastball around 87% of the time, but that percentage has dropped in each subsequent season as he’s integrated a sinker and slider. He threw the cutter less than ever in 2021, just over twice as often as the sinker:
After a Decade as the Dodgers’ Closer, Kenley Jansen Joins the Braves – Jay Jaffe / FanGraphs.com – March 21, 2022
Several middle and long relief slots are iffy to a degree, though that can be said about most MLB bullpens. Veteran Collin McHugh takes the edge off of this uncertainty with durability and plenty of high-leverage experience. Keep an eye out his summer for Kirby Yates, who signed an injury-insured contract as he returns from Tommy John rehab. The 35-year-old essentially missed the past two seasons but could add a little punch to Atlanta’s middle relief. Then again, things may not pan out for the tough luck veteran. Regardless, expect another above average relief unit that could be a tick better with this additional muscle.
Philadelphia Phillies 2022 Win Total: Open 83.5, Now 85.5
2021 Win Total: Over 80.5 (82-80 / Pythag = 80)
You didn’t think that Dave Dombrowski would sit tight this offseason, did you? After the Phillies turned in their first winning season since 2011, the President of Baseball Operations hit up the free agency market to address two key issues: relief pitching and power. Big boppers Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber add beef to the lineup while a couple fresh faces in the bullpen could send that unit toward respectability. But the NL East is stacked, making any postseason aspirations an uphill climb. Is 2022 the year that the Phils put it all together and make the playoffs for the first time in over a decade?
Key Personnel Changes
Additions:
- Corey Knebel – RHP (RP)
- Jeurys Familia – RHP (RP)
- Brad Hand – LHP (RP)
- Kyle Schwarber – OF
- Nick Castellanos – OF
Subtractions:
- Hector Neris – RHP (RP)
- Archie Bradley – RHP (RP)
- Andrew McCutcheon – OF
- Brad Miller – INF/OF
- Travis Jankowski – OF
- Ian Kennedy – RHP (RP)
BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 82 – 93
— Position Players —
Philadelphia’s lineup needed a shot in the arm – or two – after finding themselves in the middle of the pack with most offensive metrics. Home runs, runs, stolen bases, slugging percentage; all of which were at ho-hum levels. One thing we know for sure is that the Philly offense’s mediocrity was not any fault of 2x NL MVP Bryce Harper. The 29-year-old reminded us that his 2015 MVP season was far from a flash in the pan. It also spoke volumes to the fact that this club needed more firepower if they want to ascend beyond scraping by with a winning season.
Bryce Harper, 2015 & 2021 MVP Seasons
| OBP | SLG | HR | R | wRC+ | Hard Hit | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015 | .460 | .649 | 42 | 118 | 197 | 47.7% | 9.3 |
| 2021 | .429 | .615 | 35 | 101 | 170 | 49.2% | 6.6 |
Father Time places his imprint on everyone, even elite athletes like Bryce Harper. Still, the MVP delivered an on-base percentage that puts most players’ slugging to shame. His 170 wRC+ topped all qualified hitters last season including Vlad Guerrero, Jr., Juan Soto, and Fernando Tatis, Jr. Dombrowski and manager Joe Girardi knew that Harper’s one-man show is a massive long shot to be replicated – just look at 2017 through 2020 – so reinforcements are a must to maintain or take the next step forward.
Enter Philly’s new big guns Nick Castellanos and Kyle Schwarber. These outfielders and their big bats join the team after posting career-best numbers with their previous clubs. Castellanos’ 34 home runs, .576 SLG, 140 wRC+, and 4.2 WAR were personal bests with Cincinnati. Likewise, Schwarber slashed .266/.374/.554 with a 145 wRC+; also career numbers in his split season with Washington and Boston. The intriguing part for the year ahead is that Kyle played in just 113 games last year. Plus Schwarber managed to consistently hit for average against both lefties and righties, though his power numbers continued to shine through against righties.
Struggles In the Field
One long term trend that the Phillies failed to buck last season is poor defense. Aside from their great year in the field back in 2019, defense has been a liability more often than not over the past decade. And the outfield has been a big part of the team’s struggles except in that 2019 surprise. Bryce’s okay fielding season (-6 DRS, 2.0 UZR150) did little to detract from MVP consideration and he was far from being the biggest liability out there. Whether it points toward anything of significance, Harper has yet to post back-to-back negative run saved seasons in his ten-year career.
At least last year’s biggest defensive detractors in the outfield are gone. Andrew McCutcheon gives way to Castellanos and/or Schwarber and should not result in any further degradation in left. As a Reds fan, I must admit that Nick put in a ton of extra work last year to improve his poor fielding. Plus this group might see a slight improvement in center field with Travis Jankowski off the team. That spot appears to be occupied by Odubel Herrera although his start to the 2022 season will be delayed. So the door is open for Matt Vierling after his brief debut. Unless third baseman Alec Bohm or shortstop Didi Gregorius get their acts together or take a back seat, the infield will continue to be a defensive liability. Look for a small defensive improvement in center field and a tick up from Harper in right – a net positive overall.
Jacking Up the Lineup
The new National League DH position is a huge boon for the Phillies. It allows both Castellanos and Schwarber to contribute their strengths without simultaneously dumping both players’ poor defense onto the field. More playing time for Kyle should offset falloff from his 2021 peak numbers, making him a good candidate for a 3-win repeat. Nick is likely to slide back toward that valuation. Granted, the organization will gladly take 30+ homers and .280/.540/.525 line for a $20M salary. I can make a strong case for a 4-5 win, 5% offensive production improvement between the outfield and additional DH bat that should cover up their stagnant infield.
Catcher JT Realmuto and second baseman Jean Segura are the only good defenders of the group. At least Rhys Hoskins covers up his fielding deficiency by playing first base and sporting a mid-120s wRC+. Unless the team makes a big in-season move or two on the left side, Alec Bohm and Didi Gregorius will be the team’s weakest links. Bohm’s 75 wRC+ follow up to a strong rookie debut simply won’t cut it with Philly’s recalibrated expectations. A .400+ slugging mark would be a good starting point and could keep him in the majors. It’s playoffs or bust with this new lineup.
Didi’s spot is in serious jeopardy if his fielding woes and sub-.400 slugging persist. At some point, the organization’s #2 prospect, 24-year-old shortstop Bryson Stott should get called up. I’m aligned with Paul Sporer in that Stott’s chances improve greatly if he picks up where he left off last year in AAA, especially if Didi fails to turn things around. His fielding should be better than that of 32-year-old Gregorius even if his hitting does not immediately pop in the big leagues.
— Rotation —
It truly is amazing how one arm can buoy an entire rotation sometimes. NL Cy Young award runner-up Zack Wheeler was incredible in his second season with the Phillies. All of his numbers (2.59 FIP/2.84 xFIP, 5.37 K/BB ratio, 49.8% ground ball rate) combined to form the best season of the 31-year-old’s career. Perhaps even more impressive are the 213.1 innings that pumped up a 7.3 WAR valuation. And when combined with Aaron Nola’s 180.2 innings this pair comprised 46.7% of the 2021 rotation’s workload.
Assuming that Wheeler will not repeat with 200+ innings, this year’s group should benefit from the pair’s projections for 180+ innings. They pretty much have to stay healthy and make deep starts given Philly’s #3 through #5 pitchers. No pressure, gentlemen. Asking Zack for another sub-3.00 FIP, 200+ inning season is a reach. But low-3.00 with 30 starts keeps him in the 5 win neighborhood. That’s both reasonable and ace-caliber.
Nola’s 3.37 FIP/3.37 xFIP season is replicable for another 4+ WAR performance depending on which dynamics take over. We’ve seen his walk rate ebb and flow as his swinging strike rate ramped up around 13% up in recent years. Here’s where things get dicey with the 28-year-old righty. Last year marked a 9 point dropoff to a 40.5% ground ball rate in addition to escalating home run rates since 2019. Likewise, Aaron’s hard hit rate has flirted with the 40% threshold in those same three seasons. But if the guy can replicate 2021’s sub-6.0% walk rate and keep those Ks up, the net effects of those hard hits and long balls will be limited.
The Rest of the Story
This rotation still needs to eat another 460 innings. Last year it took seven starters to cobble together 87 starts: Eflin, Suarez, Gibson, Howard, Velasquez, Moore, and Anderson. The first three are in the Phils’ projected rotation as it stands today. Those other four are no longer with the team. Spencer Howard was exchanged for Kyle Gibson in July, Vince Velasquez shipped to San Diego, and veterans Matt Moore and Chase Anderson let go in free agency. Howard still has a future with his new club, while the others face an uphill climb after all three posted 5+ FIPs and xFIPs.
The key issue with guys like Gibson, Suarez, and Eflin is the poor defense behind them. They’re all contact-control pitchers with 40+ or even 50+ ground ball rates and K rates in the low 20s. Ranger Suarez could be the exception with his jump in strikeout (25.6%) and swinging strike rates (11.2%) in 2021. His pivot away from a slider to the changeup should help him continue to avoid hard contact, though the southpaw can only get away with yielding 1 homer per 25 innings for so long.
Zack Eflin’s diverse arsenal and recent shift to the two-seamer did him well, especially as his secondary pitches abandoned him. Take that with a grain of salt considering Eflin is not a big whiff guy anyways and his hard rate jumped 6% in ’21. I don’t hate Kyle Gibson as much as I think he’s a poor fit in Philly – barring some sort of miracle with Bohm at third and reinforcement at shortstop. Realistically, this threesome should contribute about 5-6 WAR to a unit that projects to be a step behind 2021. You just cannot expect Wheeler to put up 7.3 WAR again.
— Bullpen —
News flash: Philly’s bullpen delivered bottom five performance for the third straight year. Their fourth-highest FIP (4.61) is a byproduct of one of the worst home run rates out there. But you start looking at some of the underlying metrics like a 4.27 xFIP and a league-best ground ball rate then have to wonder what it takes to improve this group. Getting a better defense is a big help in general. Since that appears not to be on Dombrowski’s radar, you can just swap out half of last year’s bullpen for more quality arms.
A Big Enough Pivot?
Hector Neris and Ian Kennedy are gone. Step one complete. Sure, those two saved 22 of the team’s 36 games but they were a significant part of blowing a league-high 34 opportunities. Yet they were two of nine Philadelphia relievers with multiple blown saves in 2021. This forced the front office to finally cave in and sign high-leverage arms like Corey Knebel, Jeurys Familia, and Brand Hand. Could these be the guys to raise the Philly bullpen up to league average territory for a change? That could be all it takes for this unit to make a positive contribution toward a playoff run. After all, it helps to move Connor Brogdon and Sam Coonrod into more appropriate roles and keep the tough spots for the experienced relievers. Here’s where I’m at with these new additions:
- Corey Knebel – solid mid-3.00 FIP after regaining his 10%+ swinging strike form; 2021’s .233 BABIP challenges any lofty expectations
- Jeurys Familia – low-4.00 FIP held back by a typical 10%+ walk rate
- Brad Hand – low-to-mid 4.00 FIP; the instability of playing for three teams last season could have muted his usual strikeout and swinging strike rates
All that aside, the true pivot piece of this unit could be fireballer Jose Alvarado. He’s a sinker-heavy lefty with a wipeout slider and an Achilles heel commonly known as walks. Last year’s 18.7% BB rate matched his 2019 career high in Tampa Bay. Plus Alvarado’s hard hit rate spiked 6.5% higher than his career average. Walks and hard contact – you know my feelings on that troublesome combination. If Jose can show modest improvement in those factors, this bullpen could finally be a contributor instead of a detractor.
New York Mets 2022 Win Total: Open 89.5, Now 90.5
2021 Result: Under 90.5 (77-85 / Pythag = 77)
One thing we know for sure about Mets’ owner Steven Cohen is the guy is not afraid to open up his checkbook. That’s rarely a bad thing for your owner to have a burning desire to field a championship team. From the Francisco Lindor-Carlos Carrasco trade last offseason to scooping up Starling Marte, Mark Canha, and Eduardo Escobar this year, Uncle Steve has loaded his club up with impact players. It seems to be enough to move the needle in Queens, though the 2021 attempt faded harshly in the second half. Has enough firepower been added to change course in 2022? And will I fall for this team once again, raising the skepticism and ridicule of my Phillies-backing friends?
Key Personnel Changes
Additions:
- Max Scherzer – RHP (SP)
- Chris Bassitt – RHP (SP)
- Starling Marte – OF
- Mark Canha – OF
- Eduardo Escobar – INF
- Adam Ottavino – RHP (RP)
Subtractions:
- Marcus Stroman – RHP (SP)
- Javier Baez – SS
- Jonathan Villar – INF/OF
- Michael Conforto – OF ???
- Jeurys Familia – RHP (RP)
- Aaron Loup – LHP (RP)
- Brad Hand – LHP (RP)
- Heath Hembree – RHP (RP)
BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 84 – 98
— Position Players —
Steve Cohen continued his attack on the status quo with bold offseason moves. His lineup lost outfielder Michael Conforto – maybe? – and shortstop Javier Baez but the front office raided Oakland’s roster, signing 33-year-old outfielders Starling Marte and Mark Canha. The Mets also snagged longtime D-backs third baseman Eduardo Escobar from Milwaukee, who is coincidentally also 33 years old. Cohen isn’t looking to start a youth movement in Queens. He wants plug-and-play pieces that make an impact right now. New York’s outfield defense will take a hit with Canha and Marte, though Escobar’s positive impact at third essentially covers those losses and helps keep the team’s defense firmly on the plus side.
The 2022 influx of new faces clearly strengthens the Mets lineup – one that brought in Francisco Lindor and James McCann in the previous offseason. Unfortunately, those two were very disappointing in their New York debuts. Lindor’s .230/.322/.412 line did not break the slump that he left Cleveland with, while the Detroit version of McCann showed up rather than the superior Chicago one. Many of us expect Francisco to return to a .250 average with more power to recapture a wRC+ in the 110s. James McCann’s offensive enlightenment with the White Sox appears to have been anomalous, however, tempering my offensive projections for the catcher.
Reversing Course
Admittedly, I was one who bought into New York’s offensive upgrades going into the 2021 season. And despite the lineup’s slow start the team was winning. Then they started to hit and the pitching abandoned them. Jacob deGrom going down certainly did not help the cause. Looking ahead to 2022, I cannot help but to find a ton of upside in run production…again. Marte, Canha, and Escobar should stabilize an offense that returns a pair of very good hitters in first baseman Pete Alonso and outfielder Brandon Nimmo.
We already know that Alonso is a 40-homer powerhouse with a stout .340+ OBP who now has multiple threats both above and below him in the order. One of those threats being leadoff man Nimmo and his career .393 OBP. The 28-year-old is quietly one of the most consistent and disciplined hitters in the league, and now he has some serious beef behind him in the lineup. Throw in guys like JD Davis, Dom Smith, and Luis Guillorme for proven depth on the bench. After all, it can be easy to overlook what good backups and platoon players can offer in a six month season. Call me a fool, but the Mets offense has nowhere to go but up – tack on another 4-5% onto their run production with greater reliability via more power.
— Rotation —
Steve Cohen and team president Sandy Alderson also took a shot at replacing the inning-eating Marcus Stroman with a man seven years his senior: Max Scherzer. Mad Max isn’t just any 37-year-old though. The 8x All-Star, 3x Cy Young award winner, and World Series Champion suffered from arm fatigue toward the end of 2021 in Los Angeles yet still delivered 179 innings and 5.4 WAR. Even if we recalibrate expectations for Scherzer’s fifteenth MLB season, a healthy campaign still pans out as a 4+ WAR value for the Mets. Whether that justifies the 3-year/$130M contract with a player opt-out after 2022 is up for debate. In season fourteen, Max had one of the league’s highest swinging strike rates (15.9%) and a stifling 6.56 K/BB ratio combining for a 2.97 FIP/3.24 xFIP. The guy still has it.
If there is a single attribute that will dictate the trajectory of the Mets rotation, it has to be health. As battle tested as Max Scherzer is, the guy is still 37 years old. And Jacob deGrom’s injury woes from 2021 could limit his workload to the tune of 150 innings or so. His half-season of 1.40 FIP/1.61 xFIP dominance produced 4.9 WAR, though the team sorely missed him as their fate turned south in the summer. But New York could still get the same value out of deGrom with a more “realistic” mid-2.00s FIP spread across a full season. If it only worked that way.
Strength in Numbers
With 34-year-old Carlos Carrasco recovering from elbow injuries and limited action last season, the Mets knew that innings and depth would be a constraint once the offseason resumed. Oakland’s Chris Bassitt fills a major role in this rotation as an emerging 30-start, 170-inning workhorse. He was on track to lead the AL in innings and starts before taking a line drive off the face last August. Sans another fluky injury, the 33-year-old righty should get there this year. New York’s good defense behind Bassitt dovetails nicely with his 40%+ ground ball rate and low-30% hard contact rate. 170+ innings at an upper-3.00 FIP level would be just what the doctor ordered from the Mets’ new #3 starter.
Carrasco’s 2021 campaign was short and not so sweet as his three main weapons – fastball, slider, and changeup – floundered in comparison to his Cleveland days. Fortunately, his 5.22 FIP/4.32 xFIP points toward an improved season ahead assuming he regains his swing-and-miss stuff and cuts back on the long balls. Depth becomes especially important given the careful attention that incoming manager Buck Showalter must pay to his big arms.
Loaded With Depth
Since Taijuan Walker’s reliability has been iffy in recent seasons, the Mets plan to tap into a pair of arms that are likely to start the season in AAA. Durability isn’t the only concern, as the nine-year veteran with a deep arsenal has experienced a spike in hard contact. That sort of thing likely keeps Taijuan in the mid-to-upper 4.00 FIP range where he’s been since the injury-laden seasons of 2018 and 2019. Plus Walker’s recent minor knee surgery might delay the start to his regular season. Consider the club’s younger arms to be an insurance policy of sorts.
Modest workload, greater upside is how to assess Tylor Megill after a sneaky good rookie season. Asking for another 20-25 innings is not unreasonable, as is expecting low-4.00 FIP production on the heels of his 4.69 FIP/3.92 xFIP debut. Megill’s stuff can be decent if he sharpens his secondary pitches to combat a high-ish hard hit rate (41.8%). Plus you can throw in the staff’s lone left-hander David Peterson for a dozen or so starts as he rebounds from oddball injuries in 2021. Assuming Peterson regains the effectiveness of a fastball and slider that really let him down in 2021, these three will add another 3+ wins to the mix. A key injury or two can easily bring this group back to last year’s level, however, the addition of Max Scherzer, return of Jacob deGrom, and inclusion of Chris Bassitt spell several wins worth of improvement in 2022.
— Bullpen —
The Mets relief corps had consistently been below average for several seasons – until 2021, that is. A simple explanation for this significant rebound is two-pronged. For one, closer Edwin Diaz has steadily gotten his stuff together since joining the team in 2019. He shed a nasty BABIP while slashing home runs and hard contact. Not that Edwin completely rid himself of the blown saves monkey on his back, but his elite slider made a comeback and fastball velocity continued to climb.
Edwin Diaz w/NYM, 2019-2021
| Saves | Blown Saves | HR/9 Inn | BABIP | K% | Hard Hit% | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 26 | 7 | 2.33 | .377 | 39.0% | 43.4% | 0.0 |
| 2020 | 6 | 3 | 0.70 | .381 | 45.5% | 38.6% | 0.9* |
| 2021 | 32 | 6 | 0.43 | .301 | 34.6% | 26.5% | 2.0 |
The second factor in the bullpen’s success was a stronger supporting cast. Aaron Loup – who is now with the Angels – shouldered a large burden with 63 appearances and leaves a 1.5 WAR hole for the Mets to fill. Granted, Loup staying with club could have still left a gap in light of his .256 BABIP and 2.52 FIP/3.46 xFIP. That’s where experienced relievers Trevor May, Seth Lugo, and Miguel Castro come in. May and Lugo are a 1-win tandem that offer high-3.00 FIPs and really good swing-and-miss stuff. They may attack hitters in slightly different fashions but they take care of business, pure and simple.
Then you have Adam Ottavino stepping in to lend his high-leverage experience to the group. He’s not the dominant reliever like he was in Colorado years ago, but 60+ innings is a boon to a bullpen that lost Heath Hembree and Jeurys Familia in the offseason. New York could do a lot worse with the ground-baller Miguel Castro and swingman Trevor Williams in the mix too. The back end should effectively handle about 45% of the bullpen’s volume with a versatile long reliever to bridge the pitching staff. Even with modest expectations for Diaz and the crew, this relief unit projects to be firmly better than average yet not quite as good as last year.
Miami Marlins 2022 Win Total: Open 76.5
2021 Result: Under 71.5 (67-95 / Pythag = 72)
When you can’t score runs, winning games becomes so much harder. Talk about stating the obvious. But when your pitching staff and defense hold opponents to a stingy 701 runs, attaining a .500 record should be achievable. Perhaps that’s the sort of thing that frustrates a lifelong winner like Derek Jeter so much that he no longer wants to be part of the organization. The club made moves this offseason at least, pointing their lineup in a different direction to match the trajectory of its talented young rotation. As you’ve probably already figured out, the waters are getting more dangerous in the NL East for the Marlins to swim in.
Key Personnel Changes
Additions:
- Jacob Stallings – C
- Avisail Garcia – OF
- Joey Wendle – INF
- Jorge Soler – OF
Subtractions:
- Zach Thompson – RHP (SP)
- Lewis Brinson – OF
BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 77 – 79
— Rotation —
Ask just about anyone who follows the MLB closely what this Marlins team’s strength is and most would answer starting pitching. I’m not sure if things are that clear cut for the season ahead, though I can say that Miami’s young starters gave grabbed a foothold in the league. The core of Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers, and Pablo Lopez is surrounded by several decent options to round out the rotation. As far as losses go, this group waved goodbye only to Zach Thompson via trade with Pittsburgh for catcher Jacob Stallings. That ain’t half bad given the team’s starting pitching depth.
Starting at the Top…
We have to start with Sandy Alcantara, right? Miami’s new 5-year/$56M commitment seems nice and cheap considering how the 26-year-old continues to get better every season. Alcantara’s 2019 breakout was surprising more from an innings standpoint (197.1) than the 4.55 FIP/5.17 xFIP. Flash forward to 2021 where his base on balls issue seems to have been solved (6.0%) alongside a spiked 13.3% swinging strike rate. Relying on those phenomenal changeups and sliders resulted in a massive 33 starts and 205.2 innings. That volume combined with a solid 3.72 FIP/4.07 xFIP generated 4.2 of Marlins starters’ 10.1 WAR valuation. Returning to that level in 2022 is anything but improbable given the underlying improvements Sandy has realized going on three years now.
Lefty Trevor Rogers blew any reasonable expectations out of the water last season, if only for 25 starts. His second season racked up 4.2 WAR at 2.55 FIP/3.54 xFIP. As hoped for by manager Don Mattingly, the command is there. Rogers’ fastball and changeup helped generate a 14.0% swinging strike rate that bodes well for the future. 4+ WAR is a tough ask after a surprising start, though he could get there again with a few more starts and sub-4.00 FIP. Between him and Pablo Lopez, the Marlins need another 60-70 innings to keep these three in control of the rotation. Lopez’ shoulder strain limited him to just 20 starts a year ago, albeit in the low-3.00 FIP range. They’ll push him to go further than he’s ever gone in an MLB season (102.2 innings) – and his new cutter within a five pitch arsenal could be the payoff Miami needs.
…And Working Their Way Down
Maybe Sixto Sanchez isn’t in the next wave of dependable starters after all. His July 2021 shoulder surgery came in the midst of an MLB hiatus dating back to a short seven-start 2020 season. There’s some secrecy in South Florida these days about when Sixto will be ready to roll, and the Marlins are more than prepared to move on. Elieser Hernandez and Jesus Luzardo present their own issues though. Hernandez’ 11 starts last year featured a heavy reliance on an iffy fastball that contributed towards a gradual creep up in hard contact including plenty of home runs. Keep an eye on him holding the line below 5.00 FIP heading into his first arbitration season.
The big prize in the Starling Marte trade to Oakland, Jesus Luzardo, throws hard four- and two-seamers but struggles with command. His 5.48 FIP/4.84 xFIP reflected a hefty 11.0% walk rate that got a touch worse after coming to Miami. If they stretch him past 100 innings, walks will hold him back from fully taking advantage of his ability to get batters to whiff. Finally, I think this team will tap into their #3 prospect, 24-year-old Edward Cabrera after making his brief – and rocky – debut in 2021. Cabrera was hit hard and issued an abundance of free passes in that short tenure. Will he add much value this season? Doubtful, though it’s all about taking one more step in the right direction for 2023. Add another win or two from the rotation as Rogers and Lopez add more workload.
— Bullpen —
Enter 33-year-old journeyman Anthony Bass to anchor this new-look bullpen. The sinker/slider righty is a pitch-to-contact ground ball pitcher who is expected to be Don Mattingly’s closer. Don’t expect Bass to be lights out though, considering his career 4.12 FIP and 1.32 WHIP. But his $2.5M/year salary is a steal considering the amount of high-leverage experience he brings. And that’s what some of the higher upside relievers like Dylan Floro and Richard Bleier lack, even if they are projected for sub-4.00 FIP seasons. So the Marlins basically have a collection of high-3.00 to mid-4.00 FIP relievers with little experience closing out games. Pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre, Jr. sure has a tough task of orchestrating the new personnel, but at least most of these guys are known quantities. And because of that, the Marlins bullpen sets up as more reliable and effective than last year’s.
2021 NL East Preview & Futures – BetCrushers.com – March 21, 2021
What more can you say about the dramatic turnaround by the Miami bullpen? To go from a liability in three straight seasons to a sub-4.00 FIP unit is pretty impressive. Anthony Bass ended up not being the closer and was actually middling with a 4.81 FIP. But guys like Dylan Floro, Richard Bleier, and Anthony Bender took care of business with plenty of ground balls and good command. Floro is likely to take a step back after posting a 2.81 FIP/3.95 xFIP and 6 blown saves to go with 15 conversions.
However, there are two forces at work that should set this bullpen back to just below league-average production in 2022: the loss of several experienced arms and failing to reload the clip. It may not seem like much, but guys like Ross Detweiler, Yimi Garcia, and John Curtiss contributed about 1/4 of the 2021 unit’s value with the latter two having been dealt at the deadline. The back end should be fine – it’s getting there that could prove to be on the adventurous side.
— Position Players —
What has been done this offseason to pull the offense out of the cellar? Many of Miami’s offensive metrics from ’21 clocked in between 27th to 29th in the majors. Runs, strikeout and walk rates, home runs, slugging, and wRC+ were all about as bad as it gets. Being sellers last season meant that accomplished players like outfielders Starling Marte and Adam Duvall were shipped for starting pitcher Jesus Luzardo and backup catcher Alex Jackson. The collective 4.8 WAR from the partial seasons of Duvall and Marte needs to be picked up somehow, and several offseason signings could very well do the job.
In Defense of Defense
But first, that sticky little thing called defense. Duvall and Marte were two of four outfielders who contributed positively to Miami’s top seven fielding. Both the infield and outfield were net-positive areas, yet it was the outfield that lost 25 runs in the absence of those two as well as free agents Magneuris Sierra and Lewis Brinson. Unlike their gloves, Miami will not miss their bats. Instead, the offense gets upgraded with Jorge Soler and Avisail Garcia at a small cost via Soler’s glove.
Opposing the outfield’s defensive decline is a significant gain behind the plate. Former Pirates standout catcher Jacob Stallings provides vastly improved fielding over the Jorge Alfaro/Chad Wallach pairing. Payton Henry and/or Alex Jackson are still somewhat question marks as Stallings’ backups, yet this position shapes up positively barring major injury to Jacob. Add in a good, versatile infielder with Joey Wendle and the infield is in a slightly better spot than 2021. Is it enough to counteract Miami’s iffy outfield? Probably not, though I still grade the Marlins overall defense firmly positive.
Making Positive Strides
Assessing change from the prior season takes on a whole different light when so many offensive indicators finished near rock bottom. So let’s start with the returning cast of characters. What kind of improvement can reasonably be expected in 2022? The speed and raw power of 24-year-old outfielder Jesus Sanchez spiked in his 64-game season and will fit in nicely with his new running mates. Just don’t expect that much oomph across a full year, especially if he’s going to be patrolling Loan Depot Park’s sizable center field.
Infielders Garrett Cooper, Brian Anderson, Miguel Rojas, and Jesus Aguilar have crossed that dreaded peak into their 30s. Anderson is actually on the verge of turning 29, though nagging shoulder injuries derailed his attempt for a big 2021. If healthy, the third baseman should provide a 10% premium over last year’s middling output. It’s his durability that should concern Mattingly. First basemen/designated hitters Garrett Cooper and Jesus Aguilar factor as 110-115 wRC+ bats, which are on par or slightly lower than previous campaigns. And 33-year-old shortstop Miguel Rojas checks in just below neutral as usual. Except for that 2020 season where the guy went bonkers and slugged .496 – the first and only time Rojas topped the .400 mark in his eight-year career. I certainly don’t hate the speedy middle infielder Jazz Chisholm, Jr.’s sneaky power, though he would be much more valuable with another 25 points of on-base percentage.
Infusion of Some New Blood
My graphic in the team intro said improved offense yet the existing player corps is likely to tread water. So this upgrade in hitting is all about the four new guys, eh? Plus it assumes that management won’t go whole hog and sell most of these pieces at the deadline. Jacob Stallings’ bat is far from JT Realmuto’s, but when you consider the 63 wRC+ turned in by last season’s catcher group anything in the 90s is an upgrade. Perhaps the most variance comes from the well-traveled corner outfielder Avisail Garcia who peaked statistically in that crazy .330/.380/.506 2017 season with the White Sox. He might deliver anywhere from -10% to +20% at the plate. This range makes it tough to peg firmly, but Avi’s probable .440-.450 slugging juices up an outfield group that slugged just .419 in the second half.
We all know the deal though. This lineup’s success probably goes the way that Jorge Soler does. And that’s a tad sketchy considering how he hasn’t quite recaptured those 2019 glory days in Kansas City. Since that .569 slugging season he has yet to crack .450, but like Garcia, even a modest .440+ slugging is a shot in the arm. Anything greater is all gravy for this hungry squad. Not to be forgotten, Joey Wendle is really good depth at multiple positions with a neutral bat. As much as I hate to keep beating this topic to death, another neutral bat in the infield is a step in the right direction. Miami’s offense still projects below league average, just nowhere near the depths they found themselves in last year. I’m bumping them up around 5-6% for the season ahead – until there’s another South Florida fire sale this July.
Washington Nationals 2022 Win Total: Open 71.5
2021 Result: Under 84.5 (65-97 / Pythag = 72)
Two big names not included in the list of personnel subtractions below must be accounted for. Washington’s midseason trade of Max Scherzer and Trea Turner marked a significant pivot point for the franchise two years removed from its World Series Championship. Prior to the lockout this winter, Juan Soto and his agent Scott Boras reportedly rejected the team’s 13-year/$350M extension offer. Too long? Not enough money? Or wrong team? After the severely disappointing 2021 season, it wouldn’t surprise me if the game’s best young hitter has a sour taste in his mouth after fellow phenom Trea Turner was shipped to the Dodgers.
Key Personnel Changes
Additions:
- Cesar Hernandez – 2B
- Steve Cishek – RHP (RP)
- Ehire Adrianza – INF
- Nelson Cruz – DH
- Sean Doolittle – LHP (RP)
Subtractions:
- Starlin Castro – INF
- Jordy Mercer – INF
BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 67 – 71
— Position Players —
The Nationals playbook looked quite similar to that of the Chicago Cubs come late July: sell, sell, sell. Shortstop Trea Turner, outfielder Kyle Schwarber, infielder Josh Harrison, and catcher Yan Gomes were all shipped before the trade deadline. Their production in the first four months of the season was significant to say the least, playing a large role in Washington’s 19-43 fade to the finish. Some credit is due to the front office this offseason, however, as they were active enough not to let the operation fall into total disrepair.
Washington Nationals Hitters – 2021 Partial Seasons w/WSN Thru 7/27 (Outgoing)
| Games | Slash Line | HR | wRC+ | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Turner (SS) | 96 | .322/.369/.521 | 18 | 136 | 4.2 |
| K. Schwarber (OF) | 72 | .253/340/.570 | 25 | 136 | 1.7 |
| J. Harrison (INF) | 90 | .294/.366/.434 | 6 | 116 | 1.4 |
| Y. Gomes (C) | 63 | .271/.323/.454 | 9 | 104 | 1.4 |
Washington’s incoming trade pieces were not quite an even swap, at least in terms of instant impact on the field. Being far from dreadful took some of the sting out of losing Turner’s all-around value, Schwarber’s power, and Harrison’s versatility. Ironically, the Nats produced similar slugging and run scoring numbers in both halves of the season. New faces on the roster helped stop the bleeding after July 27th, though two of the club’s familiar faces found the next gear after the trading frenzy came to a halt:
- J. Soto – Thru 7/27: 136 wRC+, .521 SLG *** After 7/27: 186 wRC+, .580 SLG
- J. Bell – Thru 7/27: 103 wRC+, .469 SLG *** After 7/27: 136 wRC+, .480 SLG
Washington Nationals Hitters – 2021 Partial Seasons w/WSN After 7/27 (Incoming)
| Games | Slash Line | HR | wRC+ | WAR | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Escobar (SS) | 52 | .296/.340/.417 | 3 | 103 | 1.3 |
| L. Thomas (OF) | 45 | .270/.364/.489 | 7 | 127 | 1.0 |
| R. Adams (C) | 35 | .268/.422/.465 | 2 | 143 | 0.6 |
| K. Ruiz (C) | 23 | .284/.348/.395 | 2 | 102 | 0.3 |
2022 Expectations
The good news out of Nats camp focuses squarely on their nucleus of Juan Soto, Josh Bell, and their newest teammate Nelson Cruz. Soto and Bell are set to be as good or even better this year. Soto’s 29-HR, 163-wRC+ follow-up to a massive 201-wRC+ 2020 sprint was highly successful. Expectations now frame 2021 as Soto’s base-case scenario with upside beyond 7 WAR. Washington’s outfield is in good hands defensively with Victor Robles in center, though we’ll have to see if his latest demotion gets the 24-year-old’s bat back on track. Plus Lane Thomas figures to be a big upgrade in left field even though his offense stands to be about 40% lighter than Kyle Schwarber’s.
Opening the door for the National League DH really helps the Nats. Specifically, signing 41-year-old slugger Nelson Cruz. He may – or may not – help fill the gap left behind by Kyle Schwarber. 30 home runs and a .260/.325/.500 slash line are good enough for a team in the position they are in. Cruz helps mitigate a 4-5% decline in offense and keep it more in the 3% falloff range. First baseman Josh Bell may never get back to his 2019 prime as a Pirate, but what about 30 homers in 2022? Aging veterans Cesar Hernandez and Alcides Escobar figure to be the Nats’ regular middle infield while the Carter Kieboom era at third base may be winding down after his minor injury in camp and the signing of Atlanta’s Ehire Adrianza.
Simplifying Matters
At least manager Dave Martinez has a fresh start with young catchers Keibert Ruiz and Riley Adams. That revolving door of a position a year ago saw five different players catch 100+ innings – two of which are still on the roster. As the prized return from Los Angeles last summer, Ruiz projects as a 20-homer, .270 hitter that could be a viable substitute for Yan Gomes right away. Both he and Adams have less than 500 MLB innings behind the plate, so I’ll be keeping an eye on what this duo can sustain for a full 162 games. I’ll simplify my own matters with no defensive adjustment out of the box – the infield losses wash with the outfield gains.
— Rotation —
Washington’s aging rotation hits an inflection point this season after Max Scherzer was dealt to the Dodgers. Remaining from the 2019 Championship team are Patrick Corbin and Stephen Strasburg, though these guys have not had it easy in recent years. Strasburg’s season debut could be pushed back to May after experiencing neck issues in camp – less than a year removed from thoracic outlet syndrome surgery. That’s a major red flag for the 33-year-old’s prospects to regain his pre-2020 low-to-mid-3.00 FIP form. Strasburg’s power pitching acumen peaked in 2017 as his curve and changeup started to take over. But now you have to question whether the twelve-year veteran can battle through a 20+ start season any longer.
The pressure mounts on lefty Patrick Corbin to carry a bigger load. Yet signs point toward his 2018 and 2019 200+ inning days being a thing of the past. 30 starts and 170 innings are still realistic, plus the 32-year-old’s 5.49 FIP/4.29 xFIP indicates a return back to mid-4.00 FIP form. Which, for an ace or #2 starter, leaves a lot to be desired. Washington’s rotation would be much worse for the wear without him holding things together though. Otherwise, we’re talking about 24-year-old Josiah Gray and the aging duo of Paolo Espino and Anibal Sanchez filling out their five. Gray came over from the Dodgers in the Max Scherzer trade and will build up to a 20+ start season while knocking the rough edges off. The kid has really good stuff (fastball, changeup, slider, cutter) yet still pretty raw at this point.
Patching Things Together
Don’t be surprised to see swingman Erick Fedde get plenty of starts once again as plenty of uncertainty circles the Nats rotation. Espino and Sanchez are well into their 30s and are realistically 5.00+ FIP arms at this point in their careers. And you have to grade Fedde’s 27 starts in 2021 as a relative success given the team’s situation. He turned in a 4.69 FIP/4.07 xFIP as a starter, which looks halfway decent compared to Washington’s other options. Joe Ross should be back later in the season after undergoing surgery to remove bone chips from his elbow. The team will gladly accept a half-season of starts in the mid-4.00 FIP window as their key prospects Cade Cavalli and Jackson Rutledge work their ways up through the minors. Consider Washington’s rotation to be in a holding pattern – just not an overly productive one.
— Bullpen —
2021’s relief unit was abysmal, especially after dealing Daniel Hudson to the Padres in July. Losing his 2.81 FIP/2.93 xFIP and 7.00 K/BB ratio sapped much of the bullpen’s effectiveness, leaving the group to finish the season with the second worst FIP (4.86) and third worst xFIP (4.75) despite relatively low usage. This year’s rendition moves on with a back end consisting of Kyle Finnegan, Tanner Rainey, and incoming righty Steve Cishek. I’m not quite sold on Finnegan in the closer role after his hard hit rate ballooned to 38.4% and walk rate stayed around 12%. His fastball/slider/splitter repertoire generated close to 50% ground ball contact, yet Finnegan struggles to fool hitters. Projections range widely from sub-4.00 to upper-4.00 FIP, making his tenure as closer a TBD situation.
Is Tanner Rainey the guy instead? Well, his 5.63 FIP/5.90 xFIP follow up to a short, but excellent, 2020 season casts plenty of doubt on his future. 35-year-old sidewinder Steve Cishek adds bulk and more questions to this unit. His trusty slider failed him in Los Angeles as Cishek turned in a third straight xFIP around or over the 5.00 mark. Then its a agglomeration of familiar faces in the Nation’s capital: Sean Doolittle, Will Harris, Austin Voth, and Erick Fedde. Improved? Perhaps a touch, but still no better than a bottom ten group unless several relievers significantly exceed expectations.
2022 NL East Projected Standings
- Atlanta Braves (92-70)
- New York Mets (92-70)
- Philadelphia Phillies (89-73)
- Miami Marlins (78-84)
- Washington Nationals (68-94)
Play Ball!
That’s it! The sixth and final division preview is in the books. You can find the other five on the MLB page at BetCrushers.com. Follow us on Twitter or subscribe below to receive email notifications – our daily handicaps kick off with Opening Day. BOL this season!
