Milwaukee’s success, paired with divisional foes who struggled to keep pace down the stretch, resulted in the NL Central’s third different champion in as many years. St. Louis’s sluggish start made it that much more difficult for the Cardinals to chase down the Brewers, though they certainly made a valiant effort with a 17-game win streak in September. However, it was Chicago’s ongoing roster teardown and Cincinnati’s struggle to keep it all together in the second half that made the Central a two-horse race. As for Pittsburgh, well, the beat goes on – but this year they may have company in the basement.
This is one in a series of six Divisional Futures Previews for the 2022 MLB season – each a combination of art, science, and everything in between resting on player projections from some of the sharpest minds in statistical analysis – and the starting point for our season-long and daily handicaps. This annual tradition is an incremental process from season to season that’s full of blood, sweat, and tears. As always, thanks to our loyal readers and BOL this season! (Win totals referenced in each team’s header are courtesy of DraftKings.)
2021 Division Winner: Milwaukee Brewers
2021 NL Central Final Standings
- Milwaukee Brewers (95-67)
- St. Louis Cardinals (90-72)
- Cincinnati Reds (83-79)
- Chicago Cubs (71-91)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (61-101)
Milwaukee Brewers 2022 Win Total: Open 88.5
2021 Result: Over 82.5 (95-67 / Pythag = 93)
The NL Central champ is Exhibit A of my called third strike futures outlooks from a year ago:
…at the juicy price of +350 to win the Central to boot. Honestly, this is very tantalizing if I wasn’t already invested in the Cardinals to win the division and the Reds going under their win total. By the time September rolls around, this could be a veritable dogfight between Milwaukee and St. Louis with Chicago slipping behind.
2021 NL Central Preview & Futures – BetCrushers.com – March 9, 2021
It felt pretty bad watching that big ol’ meatball float right down the middle as Milwaukee held a commanding lead over the NL Central last summer. Despite a furious late season charge by St. Louis, the Brewers found the fourth postseason in a row under manager Craig Counsell’s leadership. Ultimately, a lack of run support (bailed out by their excellent pitching staff throughout the regular season) stopped their playoff run dead in its tracks. That came quickly as World Champion Atlanta Braves held Milwaukee to 6 runs in a four-game series that included a pair of shutouts. Did management do enough in the offseason to cure this deficiency? Or is their elite pitching staff enough to carry the load once again? That’s a tough formula for success, but one that the Brewers know their way around.
Key Personnel Changes
Additions:
- Hunter Renfroe – OF
- Andrew McCutcheon – OF
- Pedro Severino – C
Subtractions:
- Avisail Garcia – OF
- Eduardo Escobar – INF
- Manny Pina – C
- Jackie Bradley, Jr. – OF
- Daniel Vogelbach – 1B
- Brett Anderson – LHP (SP) ???
BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 85 – 90
— Rotation —
Unlike AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray, who anchored a middling Blue Jays rotation, NL winner Corbin Burnes led a top-tier trio of arms that carried this team to the playoffs. The controversial award vote lifted Burnes over Philadelphia’s Zack Wheeler and L.A.’s Max Scherzer – all worthy candidates – after a brilliant 167.0 innings of work. Maybe we should have seen this coming after Corbin’s eye-opening 2020 season. If you didn’t, his fiery start to the season was our first sign of what was to come. The stellar campaign started with Burnes striking out 58 batters to begin the season before issuing a single walk, ultimately resulting in an oppressive 6.88 K/BB ratio.
What bodes especially well for the years ahead is the elite cutter that Burnes elevated in lieu of his sinker. It helped him generate award-winning swing-and-miss stuff (16.6% swinging strike rate) and a 1.63 FIP/2.30 xFIP on the way to a massive 7.5 WAR. Weak ground ball contact (48.8% ground ball rate, 30.5% hard hit rate) and stingy command earned him the Cy Young. Looking forward, even modest expectations for a FIP right around 3.00 and a similar workload pencil out around 5.0 WAR. Not bad at all for a 27-year-old with only 313.2 MLB innings under his belt.
This Brewers rotation did all they could to keep their team at the forefront despite a scuffling offense. As far as the other four NL Central clubs are concerned, the scariest part about Milwaukee’s brilliant starting pitching is that their five most productive arms return in 2022. And the fact that Corbin Burnes is just one of three ace-worthy arms tells you a lot about this unit. Aside from the Dodgers edging them out with the best starting ERA, xFIP, and WAR, the Brew Crew’s rotation outclassed the majors and is poised to get the club to the postseason once again this October.
Co-ace Brandon Woodruff throws everything but the kitchen sink at hitters – and it works. Last season marked his third straight with 40%+ ground ball and sub-35% hard hit rates. Plus he led the team with 30 starts and 179.1 innings pitched. Woodruff’s stable fastball velocity and excellent curveball/changeup offerings registered a sustainable 2.95 FIP/3.05 xFIP. If there is a knock against his 2022 projections, it’s the .261 BABIP that challenges expectations to reach last year’s 4.7 WAR. We’re talking about a 4 WAR floor, however, so any regression would be a modest hit.
The least-lauded member of this trio happens to be the youngest of them all, 25-year-old Freddy Peralta. Peralta seized the opportunity to be a regular starter in 2021 and ran with it. Like Burnes and Woodruff, he took care of business with whiffs and lighter contact. Freddy leaned on his diverse arsenal, scaling back a highly-effective fastball and ratcheting up tricky sliders and curveballs. But an unsustainable .230 BABIP justifies expectations for a 2022 season that is more in line with last year’s 3.66 xFIP. But there’s no shame in that game. A mid-3.00s FIP from your #3 starter – especially one who can take on more volume – yields a 3-ish WAR target just below his most recent valuation.
Support For the Big Guns
Regression from Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta creates a loss of 3-4 wins, though the team’s depth stabilizes expectations for the rotation to be a top five group once again. That returning depth is represented primarily by the experienced Adrian Houser and Eric Lauer. Last season, this pair combined for 240+ innings of low-4.00s FIP starting pitching worth 3.2 WAR. Both guys have extensive pitch repertoires, though my main concern is how each finished 2021 with sub-.260 BABIPs. Granted, their dropoffs should be minimal.
Fortunately, Milwaukee’s farm system is set to deliver top left-handed pitching prospect Ethan Small sometime this season. Small and 23-year-old Aaron Ashby are on course to contribute a handful of starts at the bottom of the rotation. Whether the former can parlay his Dominican Winter League gains into a strong rookie debut is something to keep an eye on. However, we got a good idea of what Ashby brings via strong work out of the bullpen last season. Aside from some minor command issues, the kid showed how effective his hard fastball and nasty slider can be against major league-caliber hitters (34.1 IP, 3.58 FIP/3.05 xFIP). This combination of experienced arms and promising youth provide the Brewers with a very solid foundation below Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta.
— Bullpen —
Is it crazy to project a bullpen with top-end, high-leverage arms to be significantly better despite little offseason action? In the Brewers’ case, yes. As a starting point, 4.2 WAR of last season’s mid-pack 3.2-WAR unit were generated by closer Josh Hader and setup men Devin Williams and Brent Suter. Tack on another 0.8 WAR from the departed Brad Boxberger and the plot thickens. Who sucked all the value out of Milwaukee’s bullpen in 2021?
Turns out it was a gang of six middle relievers in the 20 appearance/20 inning camp who put up 5.00+ FIPs with little argument from their xFIPs. Guys like Daniel Norris, Eric Yardley, and Angel Perdomo really soured some decent starts from the rotation – and all but the latter are either elsewhere or serving time in AAA. Perdomo’s lack of significant MLB experience may have spared him for now, though he walked the tightrope with 16 walks in 17.0 innings last year. The good news is that the Crew’s bullpen depth looks more promising right now.
Tightening Up the Belt
Brad Boxberger may have left in free agency but the back end trio is in that sweet spot between experience and age. Hader, Williams, and Suter have a combined 10+ years in the big leagues yet only Suter is past his 30th birthday. 27-year-old lanky fireballer Josh Hader has produced sub-2.5 xFIPs and swinging strike rates above 19% in each of the last three full seasons. So why is Milwaukee’s dependable closer not projected to crack the 2 WAR threshold once again? First off, it’s extremely difficult to sustain that level of value out of the bullpen. But when you dig into Hader’s underlying numbers, there is a lot to like. His fastball, slider, and changeup are still on point. Plus the resulting 40+% strikeout rates support a habitually low .230s BABIP.
As for Devin Williams, well, he had a tough time replicating 2020’s 0.33 ERA and 0.86 FIP/1.09 xFIP. Go figure. He lessened his dependence on a less effective fastball while increasing use of his sorcerous changeup. That combination was still good enough for a sub-3.00s FIP/xFIP via a full season’s workload. Losing 15% off of his strikeout rate and a “dip” down to an 18.5% swinging strike rate likely reflect that, though Williams still delivered stifling K and ground ball numbers.
The senior member of this stout group is Brent Suter coming in off of a 3.91 FIP/3.80 xFIP down year. His transition to the bullpen has recalibrated expectations closer to the 4.00 FIP mark as his secondary offerings declined. At least low walks, high ground balls, and moderate contact jive well with Milwaukee’s defense. Crunch the numbers and you get a 3-4 WAR range from these three alone. Tie in another half win from both Jake Cousins and Aaron Ashby – before he moves to the rotation, anyhow – and this unit is already 1+ wins better.
— Position Players —
The Brewers offense never found second gear after slumping in the shortened 2020 season. Their 91 wRC+ put them in the company of Baltimore, Kansas City, and Arizona; worse, it was coupled with bottom third .396 slugging that made run production generally unreliable. Fortunately, run scoring mattered a hell of a lot less once their big three starting pitchers took the mound. Much of Milwaukee’s struggles at the plate were exacerbated by scuffling role players like Travis Shaw and Billy McKinney, while the continued downward spiral of infielder Keston Hiura essentially knocked him out of favor with manager Craig Counsell. Poor fielding at second base and the continued ascent of his strikeout rate to a whopping 39.1% underlined the once-promising Hiura’s march towards irrelevance. Not to mention adding a true thumper like Rowdy Tellez at first base really puts the squeeze on Hiura’s place in the lineup.
His .384 SLG against heaters in 2021 was easily the worst of his career, well off his over-.600 marks in ’18 and ’19. Heading into his age-30 season, there are good reasons to worry about his future.
Elegy for 2021: Recapping the NL Central – FanGraphs.com – October 27, 2021
So where do we go with Christian Yelich after a second straight down season? Despite the potential for lingering back issues, I see plenty of positive sentiment towards Yeli’s power returning in 2022. Maybe not quite like his 2018-2019 peak but something along the lines of .270/.370/.470. His new reality of a 120s wRC+ may not be 9-year/$215M caliber, though Counsell would love to simply get 600 plate appearances out of him at this point. After all, Yelich kept his hard hit rate right around 50% and reduced his strikeout rate to a reasonable 23.8%. Getting back to being a +20% hitter means doubling last year’s 1.5 WAR valuation.
Shuffling the Outfield Deck
A healthy Christian Yelich leaves two spots to fill in the Brewers’ outfield – a unit that just graded out as the league’s best defenders. Granted, a big chunk of that fielding success can be attributed to center fielder Jackie Bradley, Jr. But JBJ was shipped back to Boston this offseason after a one-year stint with Milwaukee, swapping with corner outfielder Hunter Renfroe who yields some in the field to Bradley but is clearly more potent with the bat. By the numbers, JBJ’s career-low .163/.263/.261, 35 wRC+ season gets upgraded by Renfroe’s 30+ HR, 110+ wRC+ bat.
In reality, Hunter Renfroe fills in for Avisail Garcia in right field while 35-year-old Lorenzo Cain assumes JBJ’s center field duties. Replacing Avi is easier said than done after delivering his best defensive and second-best hitting season behind 2017’s monster .330/.380/.506 campaign. While Cain’s durability as a center fielder in his mid-30’s is concerning, the Brewers have decent ability to cover extended absences with guys like Tyrone Taylor and Jace Peterson. Between the absence of Jackie Bradley, Jr.’s bat and a rejuvenated Christian Yelich, Milwaukee’s outfield stands to gain close to 3 wins in 2022. Andrew McCutcheon adds another veteran bat to this group, though the 35-year-old is more suitable at DH given his fielding woes in recent seasons.
Strengths to Build On
It is hard to tell just how bad Milwaukee’s hitting would have been without three new faces in the mix. Infielders Luis Urias, Kolten Wong, and Willy Adames pulled a ton of weight in 2021 and stand to lead the club again this season. Urias made the most of his chance to shine as a full-time player, slashing .249/.345/.445 with 23 home runs and a 111 wRC+. All signs point towards the third baseman picking up where he left off last year, though perhaps with a slight dip in power. And that’s about where in-season acquisition Willy Adames pencils out after his monster year with the Crew. How great was he? Adames headed up the second highest wRC+ for a shortstop position (128) behind the Dodgers and second highest WAR (6.4) behind the Padres.
Once Willy joined Milwaukee in May, it was an all-out blitz on opponents. He slashed .262/.337/.481 with 25 homers and 119 wRC+ across the full season, though I have to pump the brakes a bit. Willy’s 5% spike in hard hit balls and hefty 28.1% strikeout rate call for a slight step back in production. This is relative as both he and Luis should still be +10% hitters by the time fall rolls around. NL Central veteran Kolten Wong’s slight power surge in 2021 continued his extra base hit proliferation on even years cycle. His 10% swings in production have ebbed and flowed like clockwork since 2015! All told, this core of three all-around sound players could dip collectively by 1 win or so after being so damn good recently. Look for a small dip offensively from this lineup, if there is any noticeable change at all over last year.
Catching Carousel
Aside from shortstop, Milwaukee’s biggest positional improvement came from their backstops. Longtime Brewer – and current Brave – Manny Pina paired up with Omar Narvaez as the majors’ third most valuable catching unit. In fact, their 24 home runs represented over 12% of the Brew Crew’s 194. Pina had enough of a power surge to make up for a .189 batting average and Narvaez just did his thing. And that thing is hit. He’s not a power hitter, just one who has consistently cranked out a career .266/.351/.399 slash line. Now the squad gains an excellent complement to the hole in Omar’s offense, veteran Pedro Severino. Severino’s .293 average against lefties (career .262) fits Narvaez’ career .205 deficiency versus the same like a glove. Having a quality platoon at the catcher position is such an underrated asset.
Not only did Omar and Manny serve notice with bat in hand, their 10 runs saved behind the plate fed Milwaukee’s top five defense. It certainly didn’t hurt that the team as a whole regrouped quickly after a wonky 2020, saving 61 runs and putting up the third best zone rating. Unfortunately, fielding is a spot where the catching unit likely loses a step via the Pina-Severino switcharoo. Pedro is a neutral defender, at best, and now has to replace Manny’s 7 DRS over just 452.1 innings of work. That’s over 10% of the entire defense’s gains from last year.
Hanging Tough
Losing Manny Pina’s defensive skills behind the plate and Jackie Bradley Jr.’s great fielding in center means shaving about 25% off of the team’s defensive gains via their substitutes. Fortunately, Milwaukee expects great things out of its new infield pairing of Luis Urias and Willy Adames. A full season of Urias in his comfortable position at third base – and away from shortstop where he scuffled for parts of a couple seasons – improves Milwaukee’s infield defense to the pleasure of their pitching staff. Although I anticipate a 15-20% aggregate reduction, the Brewers defense should maintain their position as a top-ten defensive squad in 2022.
St. Louis Cardinals 2021 Win Total: Open 85.5
2021 Result: Over 86.5 (90-72 / Pythag = 85)
In a year where the Cardinals brutalized me as a bettor in April, then rattled off 17 wins in a row late in the season – way after the point that I bailed on them – I walked away with an empty +250 preseason division futures ticket. St. Louis still made the playoffs as a wild card, reminding me as a Reds fan that the Redbirds always seem to get the last laugh. Despite the late surge that saved a drowning season, the club moved on from manager Mike Schildt due to “philosophical differences.” Those must have been some big differences considering Schildt’s 252-199 record. So the page has turned yet again, this time with 35-year-old rookie skipper Oliver Marmol at the helm.
Additions:
- Steven Matz – LHP (SP)
- Drew VerHagen – RHP (RP)
Subtractions:
- Luis Garcia – RHP (RP)
BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 83 – 85
— Rotation —
There is no more deserved player on the Cardinals roster to lead off this team preview than Adam Wainwright. At the age of 39, Waino carried a wounded rotation with a massive 206.1 innings. That was the third highest volume in the MLB, folks. His five-pitch arsenal gets the job done year after year, notably the cutter/sinker combo that plays perfectly into the excellent defense behind him. Yet it’s the Wainwright-Molina connection that makes it all tick – strategy implementation, high called strikeout rate, the works. That being said, I would literally put money on the proposition that Wainwright goes over last year’s 3.05 ERA or 3.66 FIP. But the guy will carry more than his fair share again next year, just likely at a value of 1.0-1.5 less WAR than 2021.
That leaves only four rotation slots for the Cardinals to worry about. And it appears – for the time being, at least – that everyone in the rotation is healthy and ready to fire. Considering how the team relied on retreads like JA Happ, Wade LeBlanc, and Jon Lester to make it through the 2021 season, you better believe that incoming skipper Oliver Marmol is thrilled. Those three and their 4.61, 5.44, and 5.40 FIPs, respectively, said goodbye to St. Louis along with longtime Redbirds Carlos Martinez and Kwan-hyun Kim.
Questions and Answers
Injuries have sidelined Jack Flaherty intermittently the past two seasons, keeping him from repeating that stellar 2019 season. His 196.1-inning breakout featured a highly-effective fastball/slider combo that earned Jack a 4.7 WAR valuation. Since then, there has been no shortage of frustration for the guy. Flaherty’s secondary pitches have lost about 1 mph, the two-piece combo is less effective, and his swinging strikeout rate dropped 2% from that banner year. Plus he was hit as hard as ever last year; 2021’s 41.5% hard hit rate jumped 12.5% from the 2019 season. In a healthy year, however, I concur with reasonable projections for a mid-to-upper 3.00s FIP that would put Jack at around 3 WAR.
Inking left-handed free agent Steven Matz to an affordable 4-year/$44M deal after getting back on track as a ground ball contact pitcher makes sense for the Cardinals. Much like Wainwright’s approach, heavy sinker use plays very well into St. Louis’ strong defense. That should be effective enough to hang around 4.00 FIP and produce at or above the 2 WAR level. However, the key knock against Matz is that he tops out around 160 innings, which stresses the importance of this unit’s health – and the effectiveness of swingman Jake Woodford or a quality call-up.
Dakota Hudson’s return from Tommy John surgery and Miles Mikolas overcoming ongoing arm issues bring cautious optimism. Much like Steven Matz, their volume is capped around 150 innings each. They rely on ground ball contact as well – especially so for Hudson – so their stuff needs to be on point to stay in the low-4.00s FIP neighborhood. Questions still surround their health and effectiveness, therefore budgeting 3 WAR between the two makes sense. With Woodford on call as a de facto sixth starter, I see the St. Louis rotation treading water from last season.
— Bullpen —
St. Louis’ late-summer surge leaned on its bullpen and stout defense to rattle off win after win. Case in point, the Redbirds’ relief unit was about a half-run better in August and September (3.52 FIP/4.00 xFIP) compared to the full season (4.04 FIP/4.65 xFIP). Although they finished in the neighborhood of being a top 10 unit, the club may have stumbled onto an optimal configuration with Giovanny Gallegos as closer. The 30-year-old righty finished the last two months with a 13-2 save-to-blown ratio while former closer Alex Reyes deteriorated into a guy who routinely put batters on base and gave up homers. Reyes yielded a home run rate in that time period nearly double his full-season mark, forcing a swap that paid significant dividends.
Looking ahead at 2022, all signs point toward this unit being about 1 win less valuable than 2021’s. Gallegos at closer makes sense with setup men Alex Reyes and Genesis Cabrera behind Giovanny. However, there are three key caveats to the Cardinals bullpen maintaining the status quo or improving:
- Gallegos must develop further into a dependable high-leverage reliever
- Reyes must regain focus and slashes his walk rate significantly – a feat he has yet to manage
- Jordan Hicks must return to rookie form after multiple injury setbacks
Stability From Within
All three points are important, and Jordan Hicks’ health is a key part of adding quality depth. The righty fireballer missed most of 2019 and all of 2020 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, then made just 10 appearances last year due to elbow issues. A healthy season from Hicks will go a long way to make up for losing Luis Garcia to free agency (2021: 2.72 FIP/3.53 xFIP, 0.7 WAR), especially when added to middle relievers Ryan Helsley, TJ McFarland, and Kodi Whitley, a unit primed to successfully transition games into the 8th & 9th innings. The biggest rain cloud over my optimism is ZIPS’ lackluster projections for everyone other than Gallegos and Reyes.
— Position Players —
The Cardinals outfield finally put it all together last year, merging offense and defense to form the second-most valuable group in the majors behind the Astros. It has been years since St. Louis had a trio of outfielders like Tyler O’Neill, Harrison Bader, and Dylan Carlson produce at a high level together. Despite an ugly first couple months with Justin Williams in the lineup, they eventually settled in as the fourth most productive offensive and fifth best run-saving outfield in the majors.
St. Louis Cardinals Outfield Production, 2017-2021
| 2021 | 2020* | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAR | 11.2 | 2.3 | 7.2 | 10.3 | 12.7 |
| WAR ranking | 2nd | 18th | 18th | 8th | 6th |
| wRC+ | 111 | 83 | 99 | 105 | 116 |
| DRS | 29 | 13 | 3 | 5 | -1 |
It’s safe to say that Tyler O’Neill’s breakout season (.286/.352/.560, 145 wRC+) – punctuated by a gaudy .318/.391/.641 slash line with 174 wRC+ in the final two months – will not be repeated in 2022. Last year was O’Neill’s third lofty BABIP season (.366) in his four-year MLB career, so you have to pencil him in as a +20% type of hitter with good defense. The outfield – and entire team, for that matter – should be near the top of the list in defensive productivity once again.
Along the same line, I think you have to project Carlson and Bader back toward their career offensive numbers. These are slight adjustments, though. Somewhere around -3% from 2021 is fair, reserving room for upside if they maintain 2021’s output. In terms of depth, Lars Nootbar got a taste of the big leagues last year and can slide in as a good-fielding .250 hitter. Assuming no catastrophic injuries, this is easily an 11+ WAR outfield supplementing a strong infield.
Finding the Right Infield Combination
Much like the outfield, St. Louis returns nearly all of their infield with the exception of longtime Cardinal Matt Carpenter. Carpenter’s fall from grace was triggered by back-to-back sub-.200 seasons, leading unceremoniously to his departure. That move was made much easier by second baseman Tommy Edman’s progression into a decent contact hitter with very good fielding skills. In terms of fortifying the middle, Edman partners up with some combination of Edmundo Sosa and Paul DeJong at short. DeJong is perennially one of the better defensive shortstops, but he has serious competition after Sosa flashed a little leather of his own as a rookie. Unless Sosa’s hitting falls off sharply, expect for DeJong to take a back seat to the 25-year-old’s better bat.
Edman, Sosa, DeJong – they’re small talk compared to the powerful one-two punch at the corners. The 30+ homer pair of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado combined for 204 RBI last season once things got rolling. These guys are consistently 25%+ better than league average at the plate and bring very good defense to their positions. Never mind the fact that Goldy has hit no worse than .286 in all but one season since 2012. Does he take a step back at the age of 34? Maybe. But there’s just as good a chance that Arenado steps up from a pedestrian .255/.312/.494 slash line last season. Chalk these guys up for another 8 WAR, just like last year.
One More Round
I sound like a broken record calling for more of the same from the Cardinals position players. And that includes Yadier Molina entering his final season before riding off into the sunset. I realize that a .250 average and 80ish wRC+ does not move the needle much on offense, but Yadi is still firmly above average behind the plate. Better yet, he offers more than the younger Andrew Knizner who backs him up. Maybe the 27-year-old can hope for positive regression/progression after slashing .174/.281/.236 with a .223 BABIP in 2021.
But Wait, There’s More!
He dominated in Double-A (153 wRC+ in 77 PA) and Triple-A (154 wRC+ in 357 PA) with a combined line of .286/.383/.586 and 27 HR before capping his season with the AFL honors thanks to a .302/.388/.640 line that included 7 HR and 26 RBI in 103 PA. He is kind of a four-corner guy, but all of them are firmly blocked (1B Goldschmidt, 3B Arenado, LF Carlson, RF O’Neill) so he will eagerly be awaiting news of the DH returning to the National League.
2021 Roster Review: St. Louis Cardinals – Fangraphs.com – November 29, 2021
If a prospect is high on fantasy guru Paul Sporer’s list, it is in your best interest to take note. Keep an eye on 23-year-old Juan Yepez, although exactly how much playing time he’s in for is still fuzzy at this point. If given the opportunity, Yepez could show us something good at the MLB level. Not sure if it changes the team’s trajectory in the near term, especially if Juan’s introduction to the majors results from a key injury on the Cards roster.
Cincinnati Reds 2022 Win Total: Open 79.5, Now 76.5
2021 Win Total: Over 82.5 (83-79 / Pythag = 83)
Ah, the double whammy of being a lifelong Reds fan and betting their team total under last season made for a fitting letdown after game #162. Not only did any momentum from their 2020 postseason appearance go down the tubes, my under 82.5 wins ticket crashed and burned – by one game. Then three key players left town in free agency. After the lockout lifted, the Cincinnati fire sale was in full effect. It’s enough to make you wonder when this club will break out of this one step forward and one step back with plenty of wheel spinning in between cycle anytime soon.
Key Personnel Changes
Additions:
- Justin Dunn – RHP (SP)
- Jake Fraley – OF
Subtractions:
- Nick Castellanos – OF
- Jesse Winker – OF
- Tucker Barnhart – C
- Eugenio Suarez – 3B
- Sonny Gray – RHP (SP)
- Wade Miley – LHP (SP)
- Michael Lorenzen – RHP (RP)
BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 67 – 73
— Position Players —
The Cincinnati Reds lineup produced at a top 10 level for the first time in what seems like forever. Average, power, you name it – well, except for a league-low 36 stolen bases – panned out to be more fruitful than most imagined. And when it came to their needs up the middle, the underrated gap filling by shortstop Kyle Farmer and an insane season from NL Rookie of the Year Jonathan India briefly assuaged most concerns. Unfortunately, the center field situation was never unaddressed and proved to be Cincy’s key weak spot, along with third base.
Eugenio Suarez’ precipitous decline in contact skills did not stop last season, yet, somehow, he still clubbed 31 homers. Fortunately for the Reds, Kyle Farmer’s surprisingly-good defense pushed Suarez back to third base. Trading Suarez to Seattle gets 33-year-old Mike Moustakas back in the mix, if he can stay on the field. With India cementing his role as Cincinnati’s everyday second baseman – 2021 does not appear to be a fluke – they’ll be anxiously waiting for shortstop Jose Barrero to develop with on-the-job training. The 24-year-old looked a bit sketchy in his brief 56 plate appearances last year with the Reds (5.4% BB, 30.4% K) but his blend of speed, power, and fielding is on track to supplement Farmer in 2022.
Changing of the Guard
Key outfield departures will loom large in terms of replacing their 2021 production and filling the DH spot. Loss #1 is outfielder Nick Castellanos’ outstanding 4.2 WAR season. Castellanos would be hard pressed to repeat his .309/.362/.576 slash line, 140 wRC+, and 20.7% strikeout rate, yet the team lacks viable replacement(s) to fill even half of that production gap. Shipping off homegrown talent Jesse Winker after his breakout 24-HR, .305/.394/.556, 3.2-WAR season sits as big loss #2. Outfielder Jake Fraley, one return in the Winker-Suarez trade with Seattle, represents a 40+% offensive dropoff from Winker last season.
The early offseason trade of fan favorite Tucker Barnhart to the Tigers for infielder Nick Quintana does not help the Reds’ cause either. Tucker had matured into a very reliable backstop with enough plate skills (career .324 OBP) to comfortably anchor the bottom of the lineup. Apparently the emergence of Tyler Stephenson made Barnhart expendable entering his final year under contract. Tyler filled in for Joey Votto at first base while the veteran missed the month of May and logged nearly 600 innings behind the plate with a solid 3 DRS there. General manager Nick Krall put his confidence in Stephenson as projections maintain a 2-win level via continued growth on defense. The net loss of Barnhart and no good solution for backup catcher nets about a 1 WAR loss at the catcher spot.
The Wheel of Fortune
It’s hard to tell if 38-year-old Joey Votto’s .350+ OBP bat will be on the Reds roster by the end July. Hell, it appears that anyone on the team may be on the block as of this preview’s publishing on Tuesday, March 15th! If Votto spends all of 2022 in Cincinnati, I expect his contribution to dip by 1+ wins primarily due to regression from his sudden 140 wRC+ resurgence. Supposedly the oft-injured Nick Senzel is healthy and ready to take a crack at center field, creating an outfield carousel with names like Fraley, Senzel, Aquino, Naquin, and Akiyama. Manager David Bell may need to consult his bingo ball cage or magic 8 ball to set his lineups in ’22. It’s all part of a base case scenario in which the team’s fielding continues to lag while the offense takes a big step backward.
— Rotation —
With respect to Cincy’s post-Bauer rotation going into 2021, their end result was still marginally better than most teams’. Even Vladimir Gutierrez’ trial by fire couldn’t drag down the sharp quartet of Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Luis Castillo, and Wade Miley. Never mind that after an effective 2.9-WAR season, Miley was shown the door in lieu of shelling out $10M. Then Sonny Gray was was shipped to Minnesota after his 2.4-WAR campaign for 19-year-old prospect Chase Petty. These moves sacrifice frontline depth for opportunities to work out a fresh crop of arms. Barring setbacks, Gutierrez will take another bite at the apple while top prospects Hunter Greene and Reiver Sanmartin get their shots with the club. Greene’s effortless heat, Sanmartin’s excellent command, and Vladimir having already taken his rookie lumps could contribute 2+ WAR to the cause.
Here’s the silver lining. Both Tyler Mahle and Luis Castillo successfully cracked the 180-innings-pitched plateau last year. Mahle’s juiced-up fastball/splitter combo generated an improved 33.9% hard hit rate and sustained his ongoing uptick in strikeouts. Maybe he doesn’t reach 3.8 WAR again but my money is on Tyler getting very close if healthy. And as much grief as Luis Castillo got for his slow start in 2021 – some even called for optioning him to AAA – the righty ultimately powered right through it with a 3.75 FIP over 187.2 innings. He was a profitable auto-fade early in the season for a lot of bettors while others respected the underlying metrics that pointed to an eventual rebound.
Luis Castillo Performance, by month (2021)
| APRIL | MAY | JUNE | JULY | AUGUST | SEPT/OCT | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIP | 5.39 | 4.31 | 2.79 | 3.54 | 3.96 | 2.94 |
| XFIP | 4.17 | 4.50 | 3.38 | 3.58 | 3.27 | 3.13 |
| ERA | 6.29 | 8.04 | 1.71 | 2.15 | 4.58 | 2.35 |
| K/9 | 7.03 | 9.32 | 9.09 | 9.80 | 9.68 | 9.68 |
Though specifics vary by source, Luis projects out for another inning-eating season with a mid-to-upper 3.00s FIP. That would be good enough to make his 2021 season a super reasonable floor with another 1.0-1.5 wins of upside. The question looming large is whether Castillo and Mahle will be with the team by the time August rolls around. Cincy’s swap of former Mariner Justin Dunn for Sonny Gray shaves about 2 wins from the rotation, assuming that Dunn can provide 100 innings after shoulder issues shut him down last summer. Dunn’s profile as a contact pitcher with control issues and a propensity to put the ball in the air does not bode well at Great American Ball Park. Expect the Reds starting pitching to be around 4 WAR worse than last season. Ugly.
— Bullpen —
It took David Bell a while to figure out that the eventually-jettisoned veterans Heath Hembree and Sean Doolittle were no good. Amir Garrett, Cincy’s closer going into the 2021 season, was his own worst enemy, blowing 4 of 11 save opportunities via walks and home runs. Personnel adjustments in the bullpen led to a 10% improvement from the first half of the season to the second. And when you sift through all of the positive contributors, a ton of credit goes to Lucas Sims for ratcheting up his strikeout rate to a phenomenal 39.0% last season.
Lessons were learned, dead weight was removed, and new blood was injected into an improved Cincinnati relief unit. Unfortunately, the club will be without emerging talent Tejay Antone this season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery. Even so, pitching coach Derek Johnson still has what could be a formidable back end with Lucas Sims, Luis Cessa, and Art Warren. Sims is in the lead to be the Reds’ closer with Cessa and Warren as setup men – but Bell can realistically throw any of them in the 9th inning of close ballgames. Depth via swingman Tony Santillan and middle relievers Jeff Hoffman, Justin Wilson and Amir Garrett – who could be making his last stand here – help round out a decent bullpen. A more solidified relief unit should give the Reds a chance to tread water in 2022.
Chicago Cubs 2022 Win Total: Open 73.5
2021 Result: Under 78.5 (71-91 / Pythag = 68)
If any business buzzword captures the 2021 Chicago Cubs, it has to be pivot. Preliminary preparations happened in the offseason but once this club was firmly out of contention, ownership gave the sign to take a hard left turn and blow the rest of it up. That manifested in the major midseason divestiture of Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Javier Baez – as well as eventual World Season Champion Joc Pederson. Management may have their eyes set on the future but you cannot count out the current Cubs so quickly.
Key Personnel Changes
Additions:
- Marcus Stroman – RHP (SP)
- Wade Miley – LHP (SP)
- Chris Martin – RHP (RP)
- Andrelton Simmons – SS
- Yan Gomes – C
Subtractions:
- Robinson Chirinos – C
BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 63 – 72
— Rotation —
After the final wind-down of a once-dominant rotation, the team’s outlook for starting pitching became cloudier. The new crew of contact pitchers – guys like Jake Arrieta, Zach Davies, and Adbert Alzolay – were contacted rather rudely to the tune of 6.11 and 5.45 FIPs, respectively. Even the super reliable Kyle Hendricks was not immune to getting roughed up. Hendricks posted the first 4.00+ FIP season in his eight-year MLB career, a 4.89 with an xFIP of 4.61 that confirms just how rough it was. Let’s put it this way. Chicago’s starters finished the season with the second lowest WAR, second highest FIP, and fifth lowest strikeouts/9 innings of all 30 teams.
Cubs management made two sharp moves to drag the rotation out of the dumps. First, Wade Miley was scooped up off waivers from Cincinnati for a cool $10M. Miley’s best season in over five years made him pretty appetizing to a team that needs innings – and quality ones, at that. Even with the natural regression expected from a 35-year-old starting pitcher, the lefty is still a mid-2s producer that could eclipse all of the 2021 rotation’s value. Think about that for a minute.
Onward and Upward
In good news for Chicago, bringing Miley on board was eclipsed by the signing of one of the bigger free agents on the market, 30-year-old Marcus Stroman. Stro’s 3-year/$71M+ contract helps stabilize this team during their transition. Projections for a 3.0-3.5 WAR season when combined with the Miley addition and a Hendricks rebound get this unit back to respectability in 2022. This ground ball generating trio requires a very good infield defense to be fully effective and, fortunately, the Cubs have decent personnel in that regard.
Stroman’s ground ball rate fell to a career low 50.8% while maintaining his career sub-4.00 FIP streak. Each of Marcus’ seven MLB seasons have resulted in both FIP and xFIP under 4.00. Very little says otherwise in 2022, by the way. With the steep falloff from Chicago’s top three starters to the bottom slots, Stroman, Hendricks, and Miley must stay healthy. Alec Mills does not appear to be a long term solution, but 26-year-old Adbert Alzolay has a chance to turn things around after homers crushed him last year. Alzolay traded the curve for a slider that graded out quite well – and that’s something that could realign 2021’s 4.65 FIP/3.66 xFIP discrepancy back in his favor. There is no reasonable scenario in which the Cubs rotation is not dramatically improved in 2022.
— Bullpen —
Chicago’s relief unit also underwent a dramatic change. It just happens to have little resemblance to the rotation’s transformation. By the numbers, the 2021 bullpen posted a bottom third 2.3 WAR that greatly misrepresents what took place. Three of the most most productive relievers of the bunch were shipped by the trade deadline though. Craig Kimbrel and Ryan Tepera went south to the White Sox and Andrew Chafin finished the year in Oakland, forcing a lot of subpar arms to be thrown at the problem.
That doesn’t bode too well for the 2022 rendition. It’s one with very little MLB experience, with 36-year-old former Brave Chris Martin being an exception to that. Martin joins Rowan Wick and Brad Weick as elder statesmen with their 2+ years in the big leagues. The rest of the crew is still cutting their teeth. Projections put the bullpen’s collective value below that of 2021, especially without the top-end talent that was there on the previous Opening Day. That’s an interesting premise when you consider how this unit posted a -0.4 WAR in the second half. But individuals much smarter than myself who I trust to crank out player-level projections say that’s where they are at. If anything, I would shade them a touch lower due to overall inexperience.
— Position Players —
The safest way to frame this lineup is “holding pattern”. General manager Jed Hoyer bought his club more time with a perfectly adequate crew of professional minor leaguers. Call-ups like Patrick Wisdom and Rafael Ortega took full advantage of Chicago’s liquidation during their 300+ PA seasons. But the other shoe has yet to drop – namely whether offensive production like the respective 115 and 120 wRC+ from this pair is attainable. After all, they’re two 30-year-olds in their sophomore seasons. On top of that, Ortega will fight the tide of a .349 BABIP while Wisdom faces an ugly 40.8% strikeout rate.
That’s the same story with Frank Schwindel’s dream rookie season. The 29-year-old slashed an amazing .326/.371/.591 as Anthony Rizzo’s replacement! Reality may kick in as 2021’s 152 wRC+ faces off against a .348 BABIP in less than 300 plate appearances. Where the numbers often get fuzzy with these “older” rookies is when a partial-season surge meets larger volume. So my broad-brushed swipe at this subgroup is no change, at best, in terms of wins.
Righting the Ship
Manager David Ross wants to be better up the middle. Now he has the experienced duo of Willson Contreras and Yan Gomes to anchor things behind the plate. Good defense and net-positive hitting out of the catcher spot feeds this starving roster. So it made sense to rejuvenate the middle infield with the Nick Madrigal trade and Andrelton Simmons signing. Madrigal has a lot to prove but the 25-year-old should continue to improve defensively and maintain a .300/.350/.420-type bat. I’ll likely adjust Chicago’s offensive ratings 1-2% points upward, nothing major.
As for Nick’s double play counterpart, the Cubbies hope that Simmons’ disastrous 2021 season at the plate was a thing of the past. 15 runs saved at shortstop is never a bad thing though. You almost have to look at this as a lateral move offensively over Sergio Alcantara that improves the Cubs defense. Plus they still have Nico Hoerner’s potential waiting in the wings, serving as depth for this infield in the meantime. Andrelton has company with players like Jason Heyward and Ian Happ who were also not as good as they needed to be in 2021. It’s tough to say just how much wear and tear matters at the MLB level. Their down years at the plate were partially bailed out by good defense that is repeatable in ’22. Expect good fielding as usual from the Cubbies, maybe a little better if Simmons can keep his job.
WAGER: Cubs Under 73.5 Wins -110 (3/13 DraftKings)
Pittsburgh Pirates 2022 Win Total: Open 64.5
2021 Result: Over 58.5 (61-101 / Pythag = 58)
The “perpetual rebuild” cloud surrounding the Pirates puts owner Bob Nutting in a class of his own. Another rough season on the field still produced winning tickets for win total over bettors, if not more frustration for the Pittsburgh faithful. But it’s not all doom and gloom in the Steel City. Pirates observers will get a peek at two of the league’s lesser-known infield phenoms and an up-and-coming rotation staple.
Key Personnel Changes
Additions:
- Zach Thompson – RHP (SP)
- Jose Quintana – LHP (SP)
- Daniel Vogelbach – 1B
- Heath Hembree – RHP (RP)
- Roberto Perez – C
Subtractions:
- Jacob Stallings – C
- Chad Kuhl – RHP (SP/RP)
BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 61 – 66
— Position Players —
Being a Pittsburgh Pirates supporter requires cynicism to cope with the inevitability of top talent eventually playing elsewhere. Until then, the Bucco faithful get to feast on a pair of infield phenoms, Ke’Bryan Hayes and Oneil Cruz. Leadoff third baseman Hayes was phenomenal in the field despite failing to follow up on 2020’s stellar .376/.442/.682 line. 95 plate appearances in his brief debut created the cliched “small sample”. Ke’Bryan slumped to a much less eye-popping 88 wRC+ last season. But the scouts were telling us from the start that the kid has excellent fielding skills and a good bat. Assuming that Hayes’ wrist is fully healed, I expect a low-100s wRC+ season and more Gold Glove-caliber defense in 2022.
Hayes will share the left side of the infield with the exciting Oneil Cruz as Kevin Newman takes a back seat role at shortstop. The general expectation is that Newman will platoon with Cruz against southpaw pitching while the top prospect gets the bulk of the work. Oneil has very good speed, decent fielding, and could easily be the Pirates’ best player in short time with his big bat. Double A pitching couldn’t hold him back (.292/.346/.536) and my trusted projection sources see a ton of value in his rookie season. If Hayes and Cruz stay healthy, expect 6 WAR or greater from this pair in 2022.
The Sum of the Parts
The reality is Cruz, Hayes, and center fielder Bryan Reynolds are the talent pool for this Pittsburgh lineup. Although Reynolds wasn’t as sharp in the field as usual, he slashed .302/.390/.522 with a 142 wRC+. It begs the question whether COVID-shortened 2020 was a one-off or if Reynolds’ career trajectory follows his bookend seasons. The .345 BABIP forces you to take a deeper look – like the guy killed it in 2019 with a .387 BABIP, so why not? A more modest +20% offensive production sets up a scenario where Reynolds, Hayes, and Cruz comprise two-thirds of the team’s value barring injury or midseason trade. Adding a prototypical power-hitter to fill the DH spot like Daniel Vogelbach doesn’t hurt the cause either – even as a platoon bat against righties. Pittsburgh should have a more punch at the plate when that key trio is in the lineup, so pay attention to daily availability when handicapping.
Another big change comes via the loss of catcher Jacob Stallings, who was traded to Miami for RHP Zach Thompson. In turn, Roberto Perez jumps over from Cleveland to “replace” Jacob Stallings’ 95 wRC+, 21-DRS season. Hell, even Stallings himself would be hard pressed to match his own numbers in 2022. No matter how you pencil things out, the Pirates are looking at a 1-win drop-off to the Roberto Perez-Michael Perez tandem that at least can defend the position well. Unfortunately, shipping off Jacob Stallings and reducing Kevin Newman’s playing time has a net negative effect on the club’s fielding. Couple that with the fact that the roster is filled with 1 WAR – or sub-1 WAR – role players. Ben Gamel, Anthony Alford, and Yoshi Tsuitsugo are prime examples. All told, Pittsburgh’s lineup stands to be better compared to 2021 but still mired in the bottom third of the league.
— Rotation —
Starting pitching has been a sore subject in the Steel City for a few years running. So the club’s approach for 2022 looks to be more along the lines of playing musical chairs vs. adding significant value. Their bottom five unit from a year ago was headlined by five pitchers with double-digit starts and varied results. Nonetheless, general manager Ben Cherington elected to buy his farm system a little time by recycling the former crew into a revamped rotation.
Pittsburgh Pirates Starting Pitchers with 10+ starts (2021)
| GS | FIP | Proj. 2022 Role | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Crowe (RHP) | 25 | 5.67 | middle reliever |
| JT Brubaker (RHP) | 24 | 5.16 | starter |
| Mitch Keller (RHP) | 23 | 4.30 | starter |
| Tyler Anderson (LHP) | 18 | 4.27 | free agent |
| Chad Kuhl (RHP) | 14 | 5.11 | free agent |
The problem is that the new rotation is marginally better than the old one. 33-year-old Jose Quintana was brought in on a bargain $2M contract to anchor this inexperienced rotation. Still, you have to legitimately question whether the once durable lefty can sustain 150+ innings at a respectable 4.00-FIP level. Ideally, the club will get a step forward from JT Brubaker, who was punished for a 2.03 HR/9 inning rate last season. Brubaker is a ground ball pitcher with good control and could actually lead this unit in overall production.
Fortunately for the Pirates, adding value to the rotation starts with a rock bottom baseline. With Quintana and Brubaker each projected in the 1.5-2.0 WAR range, new acquisition Zach Thompson plays an oddly important role. Now the jury is still out on whether Thompson is truly a sub-4.00 FIP starter when doubling last year’s MLB workload. So manager Derek Shelton needs more out of both Thompson and Bryse Wilson, yet another new face in the rotation. Like Thompson, Wilson is a four-pitch starter with one fatal flaw in 2021 – none of his options were very good. He couldn’t strike anybody out and gave up too many home runs. Either he gets his sinker back on point or its gonna be a long season for the 24-year-old. This Frankenstein-ish rotation should be about 3 wins better than last year’s – what does that tell you?
Cherington’s Rotation of the Future Takes Shape
If all goes according to plan, we’ll see a lot of Pittsburgh’s next big hope this season: 22-year-old righty Roansy Contreras. Contreras came over from the Yankees as the key prospect in the Jameson Taillon trade. Now it’s his time to shine after a brief 3-inning start towards the end of the season. His fastball/slider/changeup arsenal and good command earned him a reputation in the minors as a high-strikeout, low-walk guy that rarely got squared up on. Look for 5, 10, or more starts when Roansy gets called up. A modest low-4.00s FIP with that workload should be enough to move this unit’s needle upward by a win – which this team will gladly take after fellow top prospect Miguel Yajure got blown up in 3 of 4 starts last year.
— Bullpen —
Wish I could say I’m leaving on a high note. Unfortunately, Pittsburgh’s bullpen consists of lefty David Bednar, Chris Stratton, and a flimsy supporting cast. Those two cornerstones are likely to get the vast majority of high-leverage duties with a revolving cast ahead of them in middle relief. Stratton has settled into this role with Pittsburgh since coming over from San Francisco in 2019, producing at a mid-to-upper-3.00s FIP level over 79.1 innings last year – 6th most in the MLB in terms of reliever workload. Plus they have Bednar coming off of a spectacular 2.69 FIP/3.19 xFIP campaign with a filthy 32.5% strikeout rate. There’s just too much put on the shoulders of guys like Anthony Banda, Duane Underwood, and Will Crowe. Lack of depth will challenge this unit throughout the year, keeping it on par with the 2021 version.
2022 NL Central Projected Standings
- Milwaukee Brewers (89-73)
- St. Louis Cardinals (84-78)
- Cincinnati Reds (69-93)
- Chicago Cubs (66-96)
- Pittsburgh Pirates (63-99)
Just Weeks Away!
That’s two down, and four to go…all while signings and trades are in full effect! It’s been one hell of an offseason, but we’ll be ready come Opening Day. Find our other previews, including the NL West, on the MLB page at BetCrushers.com for all of our divisional previews and daily handicaps during the season. Stay in touch by following us on Twitter or subscribe below for email notifications…
