The third time was NOT a charm at Watkins Glen for Kevin Harvick or my three-pack of matchup wagers. But the race was far from a bust by any stretch – it was highly entertaining and I didn’t get swept. Plus it was another reminder that The Glen puts on a damn good show. Now the Cup Series promises high-intensity racing with 2022 Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona. Something about this night race being the Hail Mary for a number of drivers with the slimmest of Cup Championship dreams adds extra voltage.
Playing the 2022 Coke Zero Sugar 400 – Featured Handicaps for Daytona
This week I’m doing this a little differently with a couple pre-qualification combo matchup positions from my betting card. We’re facing Friday evening qualifying and a Saturday night race without practice. And that qualifying lap isn’t going to say a whole lot in terms of how Daytona is gonna get run. Early-race strategies, drafting lines, and, of course, The Big One…or Two…or Three will have more so say. More variance = 1/2-unit wagers for me.
My grading process bends a bit when we get to these unique superspeedway situations. While the 1.5-mile Atlanta Motor Speedway has begun to function more like Daytona and Talladega, these 2.5+ mile beasts are animals of their own. Recent speed – and speed in general – takes a bit of a back seat where the draft and collateral damage can overrule this factor. Surviving superspeedways requires a skill subset that isn’t easily quantifiable, though there are a number of metrics and factors that combine with the ol’ eye test for my grades.
That said, maybe this isn’t betting advice as much as it is me publicly rationalizing my bets. So here’s to Lady Luck gracing us Saturday night! BOL this weekend and the next as we’ll be kicking off the 2022 NASCAR Playoffs with the fabled Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway…gotta love it!
The Logano Dilemma
| Recent Speed | Recent Finish | Track Type | Track | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logano | B | A | B | C |
| Wallace | B- | B | B- | A- |
| Hamlin | A- | A- | B+ | B+ |
Joey Logano is a man who knows how to be in the mix late at Daytona. Despite falling prey to three accidents in the previous two seasons, the #22 Penske team delivered five straight ratings between 91.0 and 104.4 before dipping in the last couple races. Just how much do you dock a guy for finishing in the Top 20 only once (the 2021 500) in the last 6? Maybe it’s just rebalancing his good fortunes of the years prior. The strong race ratings reflect the fact that Logano can run and is always a threat to maintain top positioning as one of the more aggressive blockers in the Cup Series. That trait also has a dark side though. Respect is due to Joey for coming into Saturday’s race with 4 straight Top 10 finishes.
I’ll fade the #22 Ford with superspeedway darling, Bubba Wallace. You’ve all been exposed to the hype for the #23 at Daytona – especially in a true must win spot for the 23XI crew. But there is enough substance behind the hype to support Wallace in this -110 pick ’em. He’s been involved in a couple race-ending accidents in his 9 Cup starts here by way of asserting himself into the fray. Back-to-back Daytona runner-up finishes and a rain-shortened Talladega win last summer have to mean something, right? Plus Wallace counters Logano’s good form in previous weeks with finishes between 2nd and 14th on the last 5 non-road courses. He had the 3rd fastest car on the 2-mile Michigan track, if that is any indication of what the #23 team will unload with.
WAGER: Wallace -110 > Logano (1/2 unit – DraftKings)
Denny Hamlin’s prolific run at Daytona came to a screeching halt in the 2021 regular season finale. The 3X Daytona 500 winner busted out with an early accident in this year’s kickoff, breaking his 6-race accident-free streak here. So that makes me borderline hypocritical by downplaying Logano’s past Daytona successes while minimizing Hamlin’s P13 last year and accident in February. Outside of that incident, the #11 JGR Toyota has delivered big race ratings along with Joey. Denny’s fortunes have been mixed this season but racking up 3 Top 6 finishes in the last 4 non-road course races – the DQ at Pocono technically counting as the lone miss – supports a positive view of what this team brings to the track. I also respect their 3rd best speed at Pocono and top status at Michigan just a few weeks ago.
WAGER: Hamlin -114 > Logano (1/2 unit – BetRivers)
Blazin’ With Blaney
| Recent Speed | Recent Finish | Track Type | Track | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaney | C | C- | A | A- |
| Elliott | A- | A | B | B+ |
| Truex | B | B+ | C- | D+ |
As a handicapper, it often pays to be skeptical of overstated strengths and weaknesses. And I might be doing that with Ryan Blaney. Can you overvalue just how strong the #12 Ford has been at Daytona in recent years? Don’t get me wrong, he has been anything but immune to getting wiped out. In fact, YRB succumbed to accidents in 4 of 9 Daytona races since joining Team Penske in 2018. On the other hand, 8 of his last 10 superspeedway races resulted in Top 15 finishes with a pair of wins and a runner-up. No wonder I got caught in the headlights of Ryan’s 4 Top 6 finishes in the last 5 races here.
Just like Blaney, Chase Elliott has 4 accident-ending races in his last 9 Daytona contests. And his recent work is about as strong as Ryan’s. 4 straight Top 10s here including a pair of runner-ups borderline makes me regret pulling the trigger on this matchup. Anything goes Saturday night under the lights but my handicap gives Blaney the edge on superspeedways, trumping Chase’s top-tier form coming into the weekend.
WAGER: Blaney -110 > Elliott (1/2 unit – DraftKings)
This battle between playoff hopefuls Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex, Jr. had some steam taken out of it when Kurt Busch extended his prolonged absence into the postseason. Now a pair of slots are up for grabs and these teams look to fade two things: 1) a non-winner racing their way into the 15th playoff berth, and 2) each other. For starters, Martin Truex, Jr. does not share many superspeedway racing qualities with the aforementioned Blaney and Elliott. Ironically, MTJ has only busted out of a Daytona points race twice going back to 2018. Hell, the #19 led both stages of the 2022 Daytona 500 before ultimately finishing 13th. Yet bookmakers have priced him as a firm underdog to Blaney and I’ve taken the bait. Did I penalize Truex on his recent superspeedway performance a little too much though?
WAGER: Blaney -135 > Truex (1/2 unit – Bovada)
Need More Action?
Yanni is dishing out NFL divisional previews as you read this! The regular season is right around the corner and you don’t want to miss his perspectives on all 32 teams. To get our NASCAR, MLB, and NFL content delivered directly to your inbox, subscribe below or follow us on Twitter. Don’t worry, no spam and we’re not hard up for cash to sell your email address for a few cents. JJ and Yanni don’t roll like that. BOL this weekend and enjoy the race!
