Seems like there might be a little something bubbling in the 23XI organization after their season sweep at Kansas Speedway. Kurt’s W in the spring followed up by Bubba’s statement victory on Sunday says a lot about the trajectory of that organization. As for me, 2-1 seems to be the ongoing theme after back-to-back exciting – and profitable – races at Darlington then Kansas. On a personal level, the worst takeaway from the Hollywood Casino 400 is Kevin Harvick busting out so quickly after his fiery mishap at Darlington. Ms. JJ’s 15/1 futures ticket on Happy is back on life support.
Before we jump into early handicapping for the 2022 Bristol Night Race, here’s a quick recap of last week’s action as requested:
The 2022 Bristol Night Race – Early Handicaps
Daytona gave way to the Southern 500 with Kansas lying between the famed Darlington Raceway and The Last Great Coliseum of Bristol Motor Speedway. In terms of moving onto the Round of 12 after this elimination race, a pair of heavy hitters find themselves on the outside looking in. Former Cup Series Champions Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick sit anxiously below the cut line. And the bookmakers know these teams are approaching the Bristol Night Race with a sense of urgency, requiring a lay around 3/1 in the Top 10 markets. Good thing the head-to-head matchup menu is strong this week! There’s no better time than the present to jump into a few positions before the weekend gets here.
Climbing the Ladder: Ryan Blaney -105 vs. Tyler Reddick -115
| Recent Speed | Recent Finish | Track | Track Type | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blaney | B+ | B+ | A- | B- |
| Reddick | B | B- | B | D+ |
I tried not to be overly punitive with Tyler Reddick’s early out at Kansas last week – especially on the heels of a P3 in the Southern 500, runner-up at Daytona, and a Watkins Glen P7 prior to that. The B- grade is more reflective of a lack of good finishes in the recent non-road course races. Not that Ryan Blaney has been a model of consistency with just three Top 10s in the last six races, but sometimes it’s a matter of where those finishes come than anything. Same thought process applies to relative speed, which presents an even tighter comparison between the #8 and #12.
Can you accurately handicap motivation for a kid who has seemingly fallen out of favor with his boss? Does bouncing on your current organization and finding out a few months later that Kyle Busch is coming to RCR loom as a positive or a negative for Tyler? None of us truly knows, let alone whether it actually affects on-track performance. So in sticking with data and what we can observe on the track, Ryan Blaney’s edges this weekend are specific to his Bristol Motor Speedway resume and what we’ve seen out of him on the 1-mile and shorter tracks with the Next Gen car. Dover was unfriendly to both in the Cup Series’ visit on May 1st, otherwise, Blaney has been one of the sharper drivers in this area alongside teammate Joey Logano and rising star Christopher Bell.
WAGER: Blaney -105
Tyler Reddick flashed some Bristol magic in 2020, finishing 4th with an impressive 102.2 rating. That is a legitimate top-end mark that the #8 could put up again Saturday night. These guys have flip-flopped head-to-head results in the last couple playoff races here but Ryan Blaney’s track record earned my backing in this matchup. Over seven Bristol points races behind the wheel of the #12 Penske Ford, he’s led 484 laps and has four Top 10s. Except for a pair of contests in that stretch cut short by accident, P13 is his worst finish. And with 90+ ratings in five of those seven, Blaney’s floor is arguably one of the best in the field. I like the #12 as a small dog to Tyler Reddick even though I highly respect his improving skill set at the Cup level. It took Ryan a few Bristol races in his early career to catch on to one of the toughest tracks to run, and Tyler is arguably on the verge of getting into that type of groove. Until then, give me the Ford in this one.
When the Price Is Right…
| Recent Speed | Recent Finish | Track | Track Type | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jones | C | B | A- | B- |
As Ryan from ifantasyrace.com points out, Erik Jones often finds himself in a “good race, bad race” alternating pattern. The current cycle goes back to June with Jones’ P7 at Gateway that kicked off a series of alternating finishes no worse than 11th. Of course, all that was topped off by his second Darlington win a couple weeks ago. Is there handicapping value to this pattern with the #43 Petty car? It’s truly hard to tell but the Bristol Night Race lines up as a good race for Erik.
That’s not necessarily why I’m interested in the #43 this weekend. Erik Jones has exhibited a knack for running Bristol in the Cup Series since arriving in 2017 with the Furniture Row Racing organization. Delivering 85+ race ratings is par for his course. He’s fallen short of this mark only twice in nine races in Thunder Valley: the 2018 & 2019 spring contests. And since 2019, Bristol is one of Jones’ five best tracks to run with three straight Top 10 finishes. We all know that the Night Race is its own tricky animal but the 2022 Southern 500 winner has proven that he can navigate these waters with some of NASCAR’s toughest sharks. And I won’t trip if the Petty machine doesn’t qualify well. His starting position was no better than 15th in all three recent Top 10s.
WAGER: [1/2u] Eric Jones Top 10 +180 (DraftKings)
With all this in mind, a +180 price tag in DraftKings’ Top 10 market certainly got my attention. +170 at FanDuel is very reasonable but +105 at BetRivers is a pass. Whether you buy the alternating race observation or simply respect Erik Jones’ prowess at Bristol, +180 is a fantastic payout for what the #43 is capable of Saturday night. As of now, it is only a half-unit position but I keep wanting to add more. We shall see…
Certainly Worth a Shot: Christopher Bell -260 vs. Bubba Wallace +205
| Recent Speed | Recent Finish | Track | Track Type | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bell | A | A | C- | A+ |
| Wallace | B | A- | C+ | B- |
I can’t be the only NASCAR handicapper that thinks a 2/1 payoff on Bubba Wallace against Christopher Bell has a ton of meat on the bone. Considering that I think I’ve backed C-Bell in some fashion more than any other driver this season, I’d like to think my perspective is neutral – if not a touch biased toward the #20 JGR Toyota. What’s not to like with the kid? Pull out Daytona and he’s rattled off four straight Top 10 finishes capped off by a P5 in the Southern 500 and 3rd at Kansas. Better yet, Bell has been a monster on the 1-mile and shorter tracks this season.
Bubba Wallace has been pretty darn fast of late though. A little magic from Kurt’s #45 or is Bubba simply taking large strides forward as the 2022 season has progressed? Perhaps the formula uses a little of both. But the bottom line is I’ve graded him lower than Bell in three of four categories this week. Wallace’s overall level of performance has ratcheted up since a P3 at New Hampshire, the site of Christopher’s playoff-clinching win this season. Eight finishes of 13th or better in the last nine contests is a noteworthy run for Bubba and the 23XI organization. Neither driver has been spectacular at Bristol Motor Speedway in their handful of years in the Cup Series, though Bell was a Top 10 driver last fall until late damage doomed his run at a career-best finish here. That’s Bristol, Baby!
WAGER: [1/2u] Wallace +205 (DraftKings)
The #20 has a firm edge in this head-to-head matchup but tagging the #45 with an implied 33% win rate is mighty low. Aside from each driver’s skill level and team’s capabilities, there’s two reasons why 2/1 is an easy take for me: 1) Bubba has grown leaps and bounds since the start of the 2022 season, and 2) I’ll say it again…It’s Bristol, Baby! The Bristol Night Race emphasizes tough racing and can easily sideline some of the best drivers out there. It’s tough to lay anything above -170 in a matchup bet unless it pits a playoff-caliber driver against a back marker team. That’s not what we have in this one so I’ll take the big number.
Saturday Night Fever
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