Not only was the AL East home to a fierce battle between the Yankees and Red Sox, it bore three playoff teams come October. Once the Tampa Bay Rays sealed their second straight division title it was a mad dash for the wild card slots. Toronto’s late surge was worthy of 91 wins – not quite enough to make the postseason. And after an interesting offseason, all signs point toward another strong showing from the AL East in the 2022 playoff hunt. Well, maybe by four of the five teams. Baltimore has a long way to go, after all.
This is one in a series of six Divisional Futures Previews for the 2022 MLB season – each a combination of art, science, and everything in between resting on player projections from some of the sharpest minds in statistical analysis – and the starting point for our season-long and daily handicaps. This annual tradition is an incremental process from season to season that’s full of blood, sweat, and tears. As always, thanks to our loyal readers and BOL this season! (Win totals referenced in each team’s header are courtesy of DraftKings.)
2021 Division Winner: Tampa Bay Rays
2021 AL East Final Standings
- Tampa Bay Rays (100-62)
- Boston Red Sox (92-70)
- New York Yankees (92-70)
- Toronto Blue Jays (91-71)
- Baltimore Orioles (52-110)
Tampa Bay Rays 2022 Win Total: Open 89.5
2021 Result: Over 85.5 (100-62 / Pythag = 101)
The roster’s success at the plate relies heavily on Kevin Cash pulling the right strings to platoon guys like Austin Meadows, Ji-Man Choi, and Yandy Diaz. So I’ve come to a simple realization with this lineup – don’t overestimate or underestimate their offense. They will grind out enough production to position the team for another winning season. Just look out in 2022 when the Rays’ talented prospects take over!
2021 AL East Preview & Futures – BetCrushers.com – March 15, 2021
Manager Kevin Cash’s string pulling played a big enough part in Tampa Bay’s first ever 100-win season. His role was so pivotal that it earned Cash back-to-back Manager of the Year awards. Cash, Rookie of the Year Randy Arozarena, and pretty much every role player on the 26-man roster contributed to the Rays’ steady climb towards the AL East crown and in crushing their season win total. Will bookmakers underestimate them again? Better question: will I underestimate them again?
Key Personnel Changes
Additions:
- Corey Kluber – RHP (SP)
- Brooks Raley – LHP (RP)
Subtractions:
- Joey Wendle – INF
- Nelson Cruz – DH
- Michael Wacha – RHP (SP)
- Collin McHugh – RHP (SP/RP)
BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 90 – 92
— Position Players —
Looking back at last year’s details, I ask myself just how sneaky was this Rays lineup after all? Their 857 runs were second most in the MLB and 109 wRC+ was up there with the White Sox at third highest. Slugging was good, base running strong, and little difference whether the team faced right-handed pitching or lefties. And, for the most part, the entire position player group returns to defend their AL East crown. I’m sure that exacting a little playoff revenge from Boston is also part of the plan.
Tampa Bay Rays Offense, 2018-2021 (w/ MLB ranking)
| 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| wRC+ | 109 (3rd) | 111 (8th) | 104 (8th) | 107 (6th) |
| R | 857 (2nd) | 289 (12th) | 769 (16th) | 716 (16th) |
| SLG | .429 (8th) | .425 (15th) | .431 (15th) | .406 (17th) |
| SB | 88 (7th) | 48 (6th) | 94 (8th) | 128 (2nd) |
Two notable players will not be returning to the lineup in 2022, the first being the ageless designated hitter Nelson Cruz. Granted, Nellie spent the least productive part of his season with Tampa Bay (.226/.283/.442, 96 wRC+) so not a massive loss on a season-long comparison. But the second loss is arguably their biggest: infielder Joey Wendle. He fielded second, short, and third positively while holding down an impressive .265/.319/.422 line and 106 wRC+. Instead, the club went young to pad their infield depth this season. The excellent fielding Taylor Walls and speedy good hitter Vidal Brujan worked their way up through the Rays system to get to this point. Now’s their chances.
That’s all well and good, but when you think of breakout Rays there’s a different pair that comes to mind. 2021 AL Rookie of the Year Randy Arozarena made good on his unanticipated 2020 ALCS MVP nod with a superb .274/.356/.459 featuring 20 homers and 20 stolen bases. Don’t ask me why the guy was so much better in left field than he was in right, though I’m sure Kevin Cash & Co. are on it. Does his .363 BABIP beg for a step back this season? Absolutely. But the kid is a hitter, creating a 120 wRC+ and .330 OBP baseline expectation suitable for a cleanup hitter. If the Rays take a step back offensively this year, it’s going to be small enough that you probably won’t notice.
The Infield Phenom
As good as Arozarena was, all eyes were on shortstop phenom Wander Franco last summer. The much anticipated 20-year-old made his MLB debut in June after crushing AAA pitching all spring. If you didn’t already know, the former consensus #1 prospect has the fielding skills and instincts to earn multiple Golden Glove awards at the shortstop position. He saved 6 runs in just 543.0 innings while demonstrating immense plate discipline as a rookie. If .288/.347/.463 sounds good for the first 70 games of Franco’s career, the kid really found his groove in August – boosting each component by about 40 points. In fact, Franco struck out in just 10 of his final 41 games of the season! This is a unique player that should earn a 5 WAR season at the age of 21.
Wander pairs up with second baseman Brandon Lowe, who looks to rebound from his defensive struggles in his first full season at second base. Lowe’s fielding woes were overshadowed by a stellar 137 wRC+ featuring 39 home runs, 97 runs, and 99 RBI. Tampa Bay’s leadoff man created a 130s wRC+ floor with back-to-back excellent seasons at the plate – enough to project into the mid-4s WAR after a stellar 5+ win season. And their strength up the middle doesn’t stop there. Behind the plate sits a quietly good catching duo of Mike Zunino and Francisco Mejia. Zunino’s wacky career year featured 35 bombs and a lopsided .216/.301/.559 slash line. Mejia, on the other hand, smoothly hit .260 in part time duties to form a 5.9 WAR backstop tandem. Correcting for Zunino’s power regression, they are a highly skilled 3+ WAR pair.
The Sum of the Parts
Tampa Bay’s corner infield slots, however, are a bit more mundane with Ji-Man Choi and Yandy Diaz holding things down. But that’s a perspective based in relatively – especially in light of Kevin Cash’s string pulling. The Rays’ platoon and player rotations at the corners have been effective in covering up their weaker spots for a few seasons now. A similar phenomenon centers on a full complement of adequate-plus outfielders to go with Randy Arozarena.
The cliched sum of the parts philosophy is personified by guys like Austin Meadows, Manuel Margot, Brett Phillips, and perhaps even the super athletic prospect Vidal Brujan. Not to mention Tampa Bay’s mainstay in center, Kevin Kiermaier. Although we know the downside to manning this position with someone who has crossed the 30-year threshold, the guy has produced double-digit runs saved in center field for seven straight seasons. That’s nearly 6,000 innings over that stretch at one of the most vigorous positions to field. While we can safely assume that his fielding should be as good as the last couple years, expecting another 101 wRC+ on offense is a stretch.
Depth and athleticism are pillars of Tampa Bay’s outfield. You can easily make the case for the Rays’ outfield group combining for 10 wins with the DH spot included. Manuel Margot was as good as ever – stolen bases, good fielding anywhere, and decent .250/.320/.400 production. Austin Meadows is a legitimate corner outfielder who has another 30+ home run season in him, plus he’s primed at the age of 27 to add another 0.5-1.0 WAR in 2022. Although I have to reset Brett Phillips a touch after an uncharacteristic kiss of power last year, his solid fielding – even in center – makes him a perfect player for Cash’s outfield rotation. Expect nothing less than another top five defensive outfield and team as a whole this year.
— Rotation —
Rays’ pitching coach Kyle Snyder pulled together an all hands on deck effort out of his 2021 rotation. Chris Archer barely saw the field. Ace Tyler Glasnow’s season was cut short in June, culminating in Tommy John surgery that will likely keep him out for all of 2022. To add insult to injury, Glasnow was mowing down the competition when they lost him too (2.77 FIP, 36.2% K). Yet somehow Snyder’s crew rallied as a top ten rotation despite having just one pitcher provide more than 125 innings: Ryan Yarbrough.
The tough news is their only additional reinforcement is 36-year-old Corey Kluber – a tough one to rely on for more than 20 starts. He began transitioning into the wily veteran role during his brief stint with the Yankees last year. The cutter and slider were working for Kluber before his season was cut short, giving us some indication that he can hang around that 4.00 FIP mark. Now it becomes a matter of how much the Rays can get out of him. The more starts he makes, the closer the longtime Indian gets towards providing 2 wins to the squad.
And that is key with Kluber and Ryan Yarbrough anchoring a younger crop of arms. Yarbrough has been a workhorse for Tampa Bay since his 2018 rookie season, leading the team with 155.0 innings in 2021. With Glasnow, Yonny Chirinos, and Brendan McKay on the shelf, these innings become even more valuable. The pitch-to-contact opener/starter showed some cracks in the armor last season, though Yarbrough has signaled as much with mid-4.00s xFIPs on a consistent basis. His swinging strike rate fell 4% after spiking to 13.3% in the short 2020 season, causing projections to be all over the place. But if there’s any team that knows how to use Ryan, it is Tampa Bay. So look for another 1.5+ WAR contribution from the 30-year-old lefty.
Carrying the Load
Cash and Snyder have enough reinforcements to play through his rotation’s injury woes. Southpaw Shane McClanahan’s rookie campaign should give the Rays plenty of confidence going into 2022. 25 starts, 3.31 FIP/3.62 xFIP, and 14.8% swinging strike rate are not bad for the 24-year-old’s debut. He throws hard, got hit hard, and produced plenty of ground balls with a dynamic slider and curve. In fact, McClanahan is the team’s projected 3 WAR ace in the absence of Tyler Glasnow. This coaching staff has proven year after year that they get the most out of their raw talent and crafty veterans, giving me added confidence that this rotation will again find a way to be right around league average.
Here’s where the rubber meets the road. Former Brewer Drew Rasmussen’s first ten starts of his young MLB career came with decent success. His hard fastball and sharp slider point toward a mid-1.0 WAR, sub-4.00 FIP baseline after correcting for last year’s .255 BABIP (.197 as a starter). The ability to start games and crank out innings in relief makes Rasmussen a perfect fit in Tampa Bay. Cash then must dip into the unrefined talent bucket to manufacture another 40 starts from 22-year-olds Luis Patino and Shane Baz. Patino took some lumps in his 4.51 FIP/5.03 xFIP Rays debut, showing that his secondary stuff needs work. Baz, on the other hand, is more of a raw talent with a broader repertoire suitable for the rotation. It’s surely a Frankenstein-esque rotation – just don’t count them out.
— Bullpen —
Relief pitching is a typical strong suit of this Rays team, even before manager Kevin Cash took the reins from Joe Maddon in 2015. Granted, Cash has been quite effective in blurring the lines between openers, starters, and relievers during his seven-year tenure. For a second straight season, the Tampa Bay relief unit proved to be one of the best in the majors. Talent combined with elite in-game staff management produced a league-best FIP and third-best ERA last season. Aside from the first two years of the Cash regime, this unit has habitually outperformed underlying expected metrics like xFIP. That’s anything but a coincidence, right?
Tampa Bay Rays Bullpen, 2015-2021
| 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ERA | 3.24 | 3.37 | 3.71 | 3.80 | 3.83 | 4.09 | 3.93 |
| FIP | 3.59 | 3.65 | 3.94 | 3.89 | 3.90 | 4.45 | 4.21 |
| xFIP | 3.98 | 4.16 | 4.13 | 4.17 | 4.30 | 4.24 | 4.15 |
The bullpen’s consistent improvement since its 2016 low point has plenty to do with approach as well as maintaining a core of dependable arms. Closer Andrew Kittredge and setup man Pete Fairbanks are prime examples. 31-year-old Kittredge took over most of the closer duties after Diego Castillo was shipped to Seattle last summer for reliever JT Chargois. After five years with the Rays, the sinker/slider pitcher worked his way to the top of Cash’s high-leverage rolodex as a 51.2% ground ball pitcher with sneaky swing-and-miss stuff. Projections for 2022 get a little muddy considering that his .267 BABIP may not equal significant regression when stacked up against a stellar 3.04 FIP/3.05 xFIP.
Kittredge is certainly not alone in terms of snuffing out opponents’ late rallies. Pete Fairbanks and Ryan Thompson have been key contributors for a couple seasons now as solid mid-3.00 FIP relievers with experience and upside. Fairbanks is the prototypical flamethrower with some command lapses (career 30.4% K, 11.1% BB), while Thompson – despite blowing 4 saves last season – mirrors Kittredge’s ground ball approach in middle relief. And aside from Ryan Yarbrough, no pitcher on the Rays’ staff personifies the team’s blurred lines approach better than 25-year-old swingman Josh Fleming. His heavy sinker produced a strong 55.7% ground ball rate in his first full season, helping to crank out 104.1 innings that included 11 starts.
The New Blood
The bullpen core is sufficient to prop up an above-average unit, but throw in their recent acquisitions and the unit has the caliber of depth to repeat as a top five group. Former Giant Matt Wisler’s slider produced a third straight season of 13%+ swinging strikes. JP Feyereisen and JT Chargois are low-to-mid-4.00 FIP relievers who have built themselves up as 50+ appearance relievers – the type that nearly any bullpen can use to amass bulk innings. When your rotation is thin on innings, this is the type of depth that gives the pitching staff staying power throughout a full season.
Plus they added free agent signee Brooks Raley to the mix, a guy who returned to the States in 2020 after five KBO seasons with 30+ starts. Some view his 2-year/$10M contract as an overpay – at least in terms of this particular front office’s fiscal approach – but the lefty fits the Rays’ style quite nicely. Whether used as a reliever or an occasional multi-inning opener, Raley takes care of business with a legitimate five pitch repertoire featuring a sharp slider in lieu of glove-popping velo. Money aside, stocking up with another 50+ appearance, mid-3.00s FIP reliever suits this Rays squad to a tee. It’s business as usual, and business is good in Tampa Bay.
Boston Red Sox 2022 Win Total: Open 85.5, Now 84.5
2021 Result: Over 80.5 (92-70 / Pythag = 88)
In spite of oddsmakers’ low expectations the Red Sox made a very strong statement with a 92-win season. Their wild card bid turned into a plucky ALCS showing that left them just short of another World Series appearance. Not bad at all for a team written off before Opening Day. Top ten hitting and pitching, good defense, and veteran leadership all combined to wash away the ugly memories of 2020 – their first losing season in five years. But the AL East is stacked four deep with teams that are viable world champions, so how will Boston keep their heads above water this season?
Key Personnel Changes
Additions:
- Michael Wacha – RHP (SP)
- Rich Hill – LHP (SP)
- James Paxton – LHP (SP)
- Jackie Bradley, Jr. – OF
- Jake Diekman – LHP (RP)
- Matt Strahm – LHP (RP)
Subtractions:
- Kyle Schwarber – OF
- Eduardo Rodriguez – LHP (SP)
- Hunter Renfroe – OF
- Jose Iglesias – SS
- Martin Perez – LHP (SP)
- Garrett Richards – RHP (SP)
- Adam Ottavino – RHP (RP)
BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 81 – 86
— Rotation —
With Chris Sale on the shelf for most of the 2021 season, one of the biggest concerns for the Boston rotation was finding enough arms to last into September. Turns out this was much less of an issue than it could have been. Sure, Martin Perez and Garrett Richards were miserable over their 210.1 innings. But all of that mess was swept under the rug by Nathan Eovaldi’s 5.6 WAR statement season. He backed up a strong, yet short, 2020 campaign with the second largest workload of his ten year career. 182.1 innings of 2.79 FIP/3.48 xFIP excellence came via a 25.5% strikeout rate and 4.6% walk rate. Eovaldi’s profile as a mid-3.00s FIP starter is legit, leaving the question of how many innings manager Alex Cora can expect.
Boston also benefitted from two of the better seasons out of lefty Eduardo Rodriguez and Nick Pivetta. E-Rod’s recovery from myocarditis resulted in a statistically confusing year that I argue was pretty damn good. The pair combined for a respectable 310.2 innings that helped offset the rough performances of Perez and Richards. And by the time August rolled around, the Sox gained nine starts out of a fully-recovered Chris Sale. His brief body of work was good enough to earn just shy of 1 win’s worth of value. It all came together in an odd, but effective, way in 2021.
Shuffling the Deck
There’s plenty of good news for the Sox rotation in 2022 – specifically Eovaldi and Pivetta. Realistically, you can also classify the absence of Perez and Richards as good news. The toughest part of the offseason was losing Eduardo Rodriguez to Detroit in free agency. E-Rod’s void is significant both in bulk (156.2 innings) and in substance (3.8 WAR), though moving on from a 4.77 ERA makes it less difficult of a goodbye. A healthy Chris Sale could have been a good replacement for Rodriguez’s 2021 production. Unfortunately, a spring training rib injury will delay his season debut and make 150 innings a pipe dream.
From there, things get dicey with three veterans on cheapie one-year deals. 41-year-old Rich Hill tops out at a high-4.00 FIP if the curveball has life, but what is a realistic expectation at this point? Adding insult to injury is how James Paxton’s recovery limits the duration of his season. At least Michael Wacha can get them 120ish innings as a stopgap. Whether he produces mid- or high-4.00 FIP probably depends whether a decent 11.5% swinging strike rate or career high 42.7% hard hit rate wins out. All told, the Hill-Wacha-Paxton agglomeration is worth around 2.0-2.5 wins with modest injury luck. Plus they can pile more onto 25-year-old Tanner Houck’s right arm to earn another 2 WAR after 13 2.64 FIP/3.08 xFIP starts. With the lack of true innings-eating depth, I‘d bet that this group falls short of 2021’s impressive effort by a win or two.
— Bullpen —
Kudos to the Boston relief squad on their big time rebound to get back to their typical very good level. This group was a key contributor to last year’s projected 80-84 win range – clearly light in retrospect – but 5 wins better? They flipped a miserable 5.79 ERA 2020 season with as many losses as saves into an average+ unit in 2021. That’s how you crush your win total by double digits. Ottavino and Andriese were fine but now they’re gone – and that’s fine too. The 2022 version has the goods to be as valuable as last year, especially with Diekman and Strahm in the mix. There’s enough give-and-take amongst its familiar faces to stay firmly above average. Not elite like division mates Tampa Bay and New York but still in the top half in terms of performance and valuation.
Running it Back
For this success to translate forward, Boston bullpen staple Matt Barnes and up-and-comer Garrett Whitlock must be as good as they were last year. A little bit of dropoff from 25-year-old Whitlock is natural. At least I expect some as a base case scenario after his robust 73.1-inning rookie season. 1.96 ERA, 2.34 FIP/3.22 xFIP, and a ground ball rate just shy of 50% is pretty damn tough to repeat. Plus there are questions about his role in 2022 – will Garrett and Matt Barnes work as co-closers or will he be pulled into the rotation?
Speaking of Barnes, the bullpen’s senior member is a dependable high-leverage pitcher who knows his way around the AL East. He threw up yet another 1+ WAR season while saving 24 games as the team’s primary closer. As good as he still is, Barnes’ ultra-high strikeout, low home run years are in the past. That well-oiled curveball should leave him on the right side of a mid-3.00 FIP with quality swing-and-miss stuff – very valuable traits for an experienced back end reliever.
Questions for the Status Quo
- What do we really know about Ryan Brasier after just 37.0 innings in two MLB seasons?
- Will the dark side of last year’s home run luck come back to thump Josh Taylor?
- Can Hirokazu Sawamura get his home runs and walks in check?
- Darwinzon Hernandez has the raw goods…but where’s the command?
- And I just don’t know about Austin Davis, Phillips Valdez, etc.
Two key offseason additions help answer the Brasier and Hernandez questions. At least in the sense that Boston can kick those cans down to AAA after signing free agent lefties Jake Diekman and Matt Strahm. 30-year-old Strahm was rather limited the last two seasons and simply adds bulk unless his knee issues persist. On the other hand, Diekman’s 50+ innings around 4.00 FIP give the Sox a little more muscle in the bullpen. The veteran struggled with his fastball in Oakland last season – a rarity given his background – yet I still consider the high-leverage southpaw to be upside for this group in 2022. There’s plenty to like with this top third bullpen in the competitive AL East.
— Position Players —
When it comes to infield tandems, it does not get much better than Boston’s Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts. They may not be as spectacular in the field as some others but their offensive firepower is arguably second to none. Raffy’s 38 homer, .279/.352/.538 season picked up where the third baseman left off in 2019 and earned the kid his first All-Star nod. Slightly longer in the tooth, shortstop Bogaerts snagged his third All-Star selection with an equally fantastic .295/.370/.493 slash line.
With a focus on the season ahead, now we’re talking about replicating last year’s 10 wins of production from Bogaerts and Devers. Barring significant injury, 8-9 WAR is a reasonable range for 2022. And 10 is far from impossible considering how awfully close they came to 13 WAR in 2019. We also have to consider that fellow cornerstone hitter JD Martinez is on the downhill side of his impressive career. Throw that miserable 2020 season out the window and you’ll still see that peak JD came at the age of 30 in 2018 when he smacked 43 home runs, 130 RBI, and slashed .330/.402/.629. Now he’s projected in the .270/.340/.500 range – which is still great – but as a designated hitter, his contributions to the team are more along the lines of 2 wins versus 2.9 a year ago.
Not only do we have to expect 1-2 wins of collective falloff from Devers, Bogaerts, and Martinez, this team has to replace 740 powerful plate appearances from Hunter Renfroe and Kyle Schwarber. Although Schwarber was in town for just 41 games, those were probably the best 41 games of his life. Adding the versatile Enrique Hernandez to the mix in 2021 was a saving grace, though Kike’s playing time threshold was pushed hard and the 30-year-old will likely be asked for more this season. The Red Sox lineup should keep pace with 2021’s top five offense – maybe with a 1–2% dropoff, so no need to panic.
What’s Up With First Base?
Don’t they already have Bobby Dalbec, though? They do, yes, but Casas has a much higher ceiling and could usurp Dalbec early into 2022. Dalbec is standard all-or-nothing power bat and he had a perfectly solid 107 wRC+ in his first full season, but it came with a .298 OBP thanks in part to his poor plate skills: 6% BB, 34% K. … [Casas] will return to Triple-A and likely spend at least a month there, but if he picks up where 2021 left off then we could see an instant impact, especially given the strength of Boston’s lineup.
Paul Sporer’s 2021 Roster Review: Boston Red Sox – FanGraphs.com – December 6, 2021
The only realistic way that Boston’s first baseman situation goes south on them is if Triston Casas has a hot April in AAA while Bobby Dalbec is looking good. Fielding is a whole other issue with Dalbec. He holds primary responsibility for the team’s brutal defense at first base, which finished bottom of the barrel in defense runs scored and third worst UZR in the MLB. I’m also curious to see if Dalbec builds off of last year’s improvement in the strikeout department. Better at bats with that power at Fenway is a dangerous combination. So who knows? Maybe a little competition coming up through the ranks will do him good.
Patrolling The Outfield
After a one year hiatus, Jackie Bradley, Jr. is back in Beantown on a 2-year/$24M deal. His bat fell on super hard times in Milwaukee but was still his usual excellent fielding self. JBJ alone improves a defense that was set to be decent again anyways, even if he only gets 60% of the workload in the outfield. His volume replaces most of the 600 negatively graded innings from Hunter Renfroe, Jarren Duran, and Alex Verdugo in center last year. Considering that Verdugo is much more valuable in right field, Jackie could be a better fit for the Red Sox than the Franchy Corderos of the world. Getting the right players in the right positions is the sort of positive ripple effect that should make a modest 80s wRC+ good enough to justify bringing JBJ back into the lineup.
In terms of Boston’s player pipeline making its mark in the big leagues, rookie Jarren Duran gets another crack at it after a clunky debut. The speedy prospect slashed a disappointing .215/.241/.336 with a Dalbec-like 35.7% strikeout rate, all while struggling in center field. The positive in all of this is the low baseline that Duran established. Him firing off a .250 average and swiping 15-20 bases in part-time duty this year would net the team a win over last year.
New York Yankees 2022 Win Total: Open 92.5, Now 91.5
2021 Result: Under 95.5 (92-70 / Pythag = 86)
Disappointment might be an understatement when it comes to the New York Yankees’ 2021 season. Perhaps that sentiment should be directed specifically to an offense that produced the MLB’s 19th most runs (711). And when that lineup features names like Judge, Stanton, and ultimately Gallo, a pedestrian .407 slugging deserves criticism. But the pitching staff remains stout and optimism for an offensive rebound calls for a strong run at the AL East crown.
Key Personnel Changes
Additions:
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa – SS
- Josh Donaldson – 3B
- Ben Rortvedt – C
Subtractions:
- Brett Gardner – OF
- Clint Frazier – OF
- Rougned Odor – INF
- Andrew Heaney – LHP (SP)
- Gary Sanchez – C
- Gio Urshela – 3B
- Luke Voit – 1B
BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 93 – 105
— Rotation —
Another season, another high-end result from the rotation. Ace Gerrit Cole deserves plenty of credit for anchoring 30 starts and shouldering 181.0 innings of work. The 31-year-old shrugged off a “down” 2020 in which he yielded career-worst 44.6% hard hit and 1.73 HR/9 inning rates. As we all know, the COVID-shortened sprint wreaked havoc on the world of MLB statistics. Cole responded with a rock solid 2.92 FIP/2.93 xFIP, 5.3 WAR campaign that leveraged his highest ground ball rate (43.1%) since leaving Pittsburgh. Turns out that some pitchers are much more effective firing off a 4-seamer rather than a 2-seamer after all. Despite leaking a little oil down the stretch in September, another 180+ inning season puts him in that elite 5-6 WAR range again.
Not to be overlooked is 29-year-old lefty Jordan Montgomery, who has endured quite a bit since his 2017 debut. He finally got back to the 150-inning plateau last season by making 30 starts with a solid 3.69 FIP/3.93 xFIP. A true five-pitch arsenal reveals why the Yankees are high on Montgomery as their #2 starter. His 4.00-FIP baseline is more than adequate if more of his starts go deeper – especially by utilizing curveballs and changeups. Can he stay in the 3 WAR ballpark by ratcheting up his workload? That’s yet to be determined.
Questions and Answers
On the topic of workload, what is Jameson Taillon going to be in his rebound from injury? Word on the street is that he’s good to start the season after ankle surgery last fall, though there is speculation that Taillon’s revamped mechanics could be harming him. Either way, Aaron Boone cannot realistically expect much more than 150 innings over 25+ starts. Jameson did find his groove through the summer, offering hope that 5+ inning starts will be the rule rather than the exception. My main reservations coming into the season concern getting his secondary pitches back on track and, in turn, cutting down on hard contact.
So who provides reliable depth in the rotation? Luis Severino could be the “Yankees X-factor” as he too returns from injury. Those 190+ inning seasons of 2017 & 2018 seem like relics of the past, though this year presents an opportunity for 20 starts and some bullpen duty to get his feet back under him. Severino is a tough upper-3.00 FIP pitcher as long as his slider is dialed in. And if Nestor Cortes and/or Domingo German can maintain their modest production from 2021, look for a couple WAR out of them this season to round out the rotation. Otherwise, I don’t think the club is overly anxious to call up starting pitching prospects quite yet. There’s no compelling reason for me to downgrade the Yankees rotation with Luis Severino slipping into Corey Kluber’s role and Gerrit Cole standing tall at the top.
— Bullpen —
It should be no surprise that the New York bullpen should be an elite unit once again. In fact, it’s almost an expectation at this point. And the biggest reason isn’t necessarily named Aroldis Chapman. Peak Chapman was left behind in Cincinnati years ago – and exactly how this final year under contract with the Yankees plays out is still in question. Don’t get me wrong, 2021 was a very good recovery year for the fireballer. 30 saves, 39.9% strikeout rate, and 16.7% swinging strike rate speak to his success. But what makes this bullpen so dependable are its workhorses: Jonathan Loaisiga, Chad Green, and Lucas Luetge.
Setup men Loaisiga and Green locked down 154.1 innings of high-leverage work while middle reliever Luetge showed flexibility with 22 of his 57 appearances being of the 1+ inning variety. Although 34-year-old Luetge’s surprising 2.84 FIP/3.66 xFIP points in the direction of mediocrity, guys like Wandy Peralta and Joely Rodriguez provide plenty of support in the heart of the Yankees bullpen. Although I hate to gloss over such a top-tier relief unit, expect another sub-4.00 FIP season unless things go horribly wrong. This is a deep and experienced group.
— Position Players —
Last year’s lowest offensive productivity since 2016 (101 wRC+) fell way short of their recent efforts. To make matters worse, general manager Brian Cashman shoved in plenty of chips at the trade deadline to bring in sluggers Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo. Unfortunately, both bats did not click simultaneously. Rizzo was fine, slashing a respectable .249/.340/.428. But Gallo struck out in 38.6% of his Yankees at bats, leading to a wacky .160/.303/.404 line and 13 home runs.
Re-signing 32-year-old Anthony Rizzo means the Yankees are queued for a full season from both Rizzo and the talented Joey Gallo. It also made Luke Voit expendable – their projected slash lines are similar except that Rizzo offers an extra 20 points of OBP from a strikeout rate half that of Voit’s. As far as Gallo goes, you have to take his typical .200 batting average with a grain a salt. A left-handed power hitter in Yankee Stadium is super dangerous – especially one of the 40 home run, 100 RBI caliber. Not to be overlooked is the major upgrade Gallo provides in the field as compared to the mess that Clint Frazier made in three short months. Gallo’s defense more than makes up for the loss of Brett Gardner and is a key reason why the Yankees fielding should be mildly improved in 2022.
New York’s trio of power hitters – Gallo, Stanton, and Judge – is arguably the most prolific in the majors. And the fact that Aaron Judge’s 148 wRC+, .287/.373/.544 season valued at 5.5 WAR is par for the course makes this contract year that much more interesting. Fortunately, Judge’s fielding prowess allows 31-year-old Giancarlo Stanton to stay fresh in the designated hitter spot. And DH Stanton was quite promising last year, pointing toward a 30+ home run, 125+ wRC+ base case in ’22.
Banking On a Rebound
The final member of New York’s anticipated outfield configuration, center fielder Aaron Hicks, desperately needs a rebound season. Especially after a wrist injury sidelined Hicks just six weeks into the 2021 season. It was such a slow start for the 32-year-old, whose .294 OBP was his first below .325 since 2016. I can only image that both Hicks and infielder Gleyber Torres are hoping for much smoother starts to this season.
Torres just dug himself into too large a hole with the first half (.634 OPS, 3 HR in 317) so it is easy to overlook that he was pretty solid in the second half (.794 OPS, 6 HR in 199 PA). That matches his career OPS and is essentially his 2022 projection. I’m comfortable with that projection, but Baltimore still hasn’t fixed their pitching so I just need 7-8 extra HRs off the O’s pitchers to reach 30 from his projection.
Paul Sporer’s 2021 Roster Review: New York Yankees – FanGraphs.com – December 9, 2021
Sporer accurately noted that Torres’ second half performance is what most projections portend in his fifth season. Realistically, it only takes a modest bump above the .400 slugging plateau for Gleyber to gain the Yankees another win. This year he’ll find himself on the other side of the infield as Isiah Kiner-Falefa blows into town from Texas through Minnesota. General manager Brian Cashman’s early March wheeling and dealing sessions kicked off an infielder version of musical chairs. The current configuration places IKF at shortstop, Josh Donaldson at third, and DJ LeMahieu as the potential odd man out.
More Wins on Deck?
33-year-old LeMahieu’s hard hit rate has steadily declined since his 2019 debut with the Yanks, culminating in his lowest slugging percentage (.362) since 2014. It only takes a step or two back in the right direction to a .280/.350/.400 line to make his presence felt once again. The Josh Donaldson/Gio Urshela swap at third base could also net New York 1+ WAR, with greater upside depending on the 36-year-old’s health. Where Gio offered a more consistent batting average, the former Twin provides better plate discipline and more power. Although Josh’s value likely centers on his ability to stay on the field, DJ gives the infield some sort of a safety net.
The same transaction with Minnesota that brought Josh Donaldson to town also exchanged catcher Gary Sanchez for rookie Ben Rortvedt. The bulky Rortvedt showed strong defense and framing in a short 256 innings, as opposed to Sanchez’s decline behind the plate. Then again, Gary’s bat is likely to be 20% more productive than the 24-year-old’s. After letting the dust settle on these impactful trades, I see multiple tradeoffs between ability, age, and future outlook. Throw in a full season of Anthony Rizzo at first base and the Yankee offense sets up around 10% better, possibly enough to tip the AL East scales back towards the Bronx in ’22.
Toronto Blue Jays 2022 Win Total: Open 91.5
2021 Win Total: Over 86.5 (91-71 / Pythag = 99)
The Toronto Blue Jays have arrived. But they fell just short of the playoffs. A dominant second half run narrowly missed the playoffs as the Jays settled for fourth in the division. It was both exciting and disappointing with two AL MVP finalists and the AL Cy Young award winner on the roster. At least Toronto’s late surge wasn’t all for naught – it cashed our season win ticket. That’s a self-serving accomplishment and I’ll take what I can get. Does their pythag win total of 99 signal another step forward in 2022? General manager Ross Atkins wasn’t letting it go to chance as he kept his foot on the gas pedal this offseason. Losing talent to free agency is one thing, gaining it back with strategic moves is another.
Key Personnel Changes
Additions:
- Kevin Gausman – RHP (SP)
- Yusei Kikuchi – LHP (SP)
- Yimi Garcia – RHP (RP)
- Matt Chapman – 3B
Subtractions:
- Marcus Semien – 2B
- Robbie Ray – LHP (SP)
- Steven Matz – LHP (SP)
- Kevin Smith – SS
BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 94 – 96
— Position Players —
Taking the truncated 2020 season with a grain of salt was a must projecting forward to 2021. That was a big reason why Toronto’s jump from a scuffling offense to one of power and discipline met with some skepticism. Any doubts whether Vladdy and Bo are destined to make their own names in the game – as opposed to just being known as sons of former All-Stars – were dispelled in one magnificent season. Not only did the Jays confirm their 2020 jump, they smashed expectations en route to 91 wins.
Toronto Blue Jays Offense, 2017-2021
| 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLG | .466 | .441 | .428 | .427 | .412 |
| wRC+ | 113 | 108 | 92 | 101 | 93 |
| K% | 20.1% | 22.4% | 24.9% | 22.8% | 21.6% |
How good was this offense? Five players registered 120 wRC+ or higher (Guerrero, Semien, Bichette, Herndandez, and Springer), resulting in an MLB-high slugging percentage and second best wRC+ and strikeout rate. But there will be a little hangover as the Jays roll into 2022. Marcus Semien – a major contributor to the Jays’ powerful offense – leaves behind a massive 6.6 WAR hole after signing a mega-contract with the Rangers. His one-year stopover with Toronto shored up the middle infield and parlayed an $8M deal into $175M over the next seven years. That makes replacing Semien’s production problem #1 for Toronto. We’re talking about 45 HR, a .265/.334/.538 slash line, and 11 runs saved in the field. Plus Marcus appeared in all 162 games and logged the most plate appearances on the roster. Those are big shoes to fill.
Problem #2 is reloading Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.’s MVP-worthy season. 48 home runs, a .311/.401/.601 slash line, and surprisingly good defense yielded an enormous 6.7 WAR for the first baseman. Unlike having to fill all of Semien’s gap, the Jays only need to find about 1 win or so to solve this issue. At the ripe age of 23, Vladdy still projects as a 6 WAR, .300/.400/.600 superstar. Add Bo Bichette solidifying his baseline as a 120s wRC+ hitter with a smooth 29 homers and 25 stolen bases. His 5 win value is replicable and I expect as much in 2022.
Maintaining Their Momentum
Semien’s departure and the hangover from Vladdy’s epic campaign leave about a 7 win gap. Ross Atkins’ trade for Oakland third baseman Matt Chapman stops some of that bleeding. Chapman’s peak years of 2018-2019 are behind him, but his net improvement over a Santiago Espinal/Kevin Smith tandem returns about 2 of those lost wins. I’ll account for a couple more runs saved with the 3x Gold Glover at the hot corner – though Espinal was no slouch in 551.2 innings there last year. Matt’s dip offensively (.210/.314/.403) balanced on 27 bombs and a troubling 32.5% strikeout rate, so any noticeable improvement in the whiffs department is upside.
Second baseman Cavan Biggio and center fielder George Springer can pick up some slack too. Springer deserves particular attention after lingering injuries silenced his Blue Jays debut. A healthy(er) 2022 in the form of a .260/.350/.500 slash line and more consistent fielding should gain Toronto another win over the collective middling effort in center. Biggio’s reboot, on the other hand, leaves a few questions after he battled injuries all year. A reasonable upside for Cavan is another win over 2021’s stifled production, although this still represents a steep dropoff from Semien’s ultra high bar. My simplified math of more Springer, Chapman at third, and no Semien says to expect a small defensive improvement from the Jays.
Now we’re looking at a 3ish WAR deficit and have yet to tackle the Teoscar Hernandez conundrum. The regression monster was lying in wait after Teoscar’s .348 BABIP-fueled 142 WRC+ pandemic season. Instead of falling back, Teoscar earned his first All-Star nod and second consecutive Silver Slugger award in 2021. He doubled down and ran up a .352 BABIP, 32 bombs, and 116 RBI. So much for a reality check! No surprise, but the models are looking for Hernandez to come back down to earth again after teasing the fates. If he avoids some wear and tear in the DH spot, those models may again come up short. I’m on Team Teoscar and still account for a 1-win slip from those big numbers.
Connecting the Dots
A healthy George Springer also optimizes Toronto’s outfield by keeping their corner outfielders…in the corners. Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. should keep chugging along as a consistent hitter, albeit with a slight power drop. After all, having a .275 hitter behind four All-Stars is rarely a bad thing. The effectiveness of his counterpart Randal Grichuk is a little more up in the air though. Grichuk went over and above in all facets of his game during the shorthanded COVID sprint then stumbled into one of his worst offensive seasons in 2021. Look for some moderation out of Randal’s rough .266 BABIP into positive contributions for an outfield that should hold their own.
The Jays’ abundance of catchers is far from a negative, especially when one is DH material. Lefty-crusher Alejandro Kirk leaves something to be desired behind the plate – but that’s where his compatriots come in. Danny Jansen keeps the defensive portion of the position in good hands and he’s far from a slouch at the plate. Athletic 22-year-old Gabriel Moreno waits in the wings at AAA Buffalo for his shot, but until then, Jansen and Kirk form a pretty damn good platoon group at the catcher spot. After all of that, I’m shaving about 2% off of last year’s offensive production. I love this lineup. It’s just that the reality of Semien’s big shoes and Vladdy’s astronomical heights created a huge baseline to replicate.
— Rotation —
Marcus Semien wasn’t the only veteran to deliver a career season for Toronto on a one-year deal. AL Cy Young award winner Robbie Ray and Steven Matz combined for 61 starts and 6.7 WAR during their stopovers. Ray solved his walks issues as Matz dialed up his lowest FIP/xFIP since 2016. But these two are gone, leaving a gap of 344.0 innings and nearly 7 WAR. Hyun Jin Ryu, on the other hand, is under contract for two more seasons after producing a FIP nearly one run higher than his last three seasons. If 4.00 is his new baseline, expect Ryu to maintain a mid-2.0 WAR valuation. Otherwise, the 34-year-old lefty has an upside around one-half win. After all, his four-pitch repertoire was still good enough to produce plenty of ground balls. Keep an eye on Ryu’s hard hit and swinging strike rates as those indicators were shaky in 2021.
In With the New
Credit is due to general manager Ross Atkins for wasting no time in replacing Robbie Ray. With Eduardo Rodriguez quickly going off the board, the Jays front office moved swiftly to scoop up former Giant Kevin Gausman with a 5-year/$110M deal. Ray out, Gausman in, gain a draft pick. Not too shabby. Will the 31-year-old right-hander pick up all of the Cy Young winner’s slack? If you go by 2021 performance the answer is a resounding YES. Gausman’s two-year stint in San Francisco resurrected his career, culminating in a top 10 fastball and one of the few effective splitters amongst starting pitchers. The downsides, you ask? He crested the age of 30 and his recent 3.00 FIP/3.28 xFIP campaign is likely a ceiling. That xFIP and a 3.42 SIERA urge you to recalibrate Gaus as a mid-3.00s FIP workhorse, replacing about 90% of Ray’s value.
Not to be overlooked is mid-2021 acquisition Jose Berrios, who recently signed a 7-year/$131M extension. The former Minnesota Twin cranked out his third 190+ inning campaign in as many “full” seasons, earning him the workhorse designation with Kevin Gausman. Theirs styles vary greatly, which is a good thing when it comes to keeping opponents on their toes. Berrios’ four-pitch arsenal featured a very good sinker and changeup to complement a fastball and curve. My limited concerns with Jose is a hard hit rate that approached 40% the last two years and a swinging strike rate that dipped below 10% for the first time since 2017. But that’s about it. Everything else is rock solid, pointing to an upper-3.00 FIP and another 4 WAR season. Back of the envelope math tells me that Gausman + Berrios in 2022 = Ray + Matz + Berrios (as a Jay) in 2021.
Rounding Things Out
Alek Manoah’s breakout caught pretty much everyone by surprise last year. The late May call-up ushered in a 20-start, 111.2-inning rookie season worth 2.0 WAR. Plus the underlying numbers look very good for his future prospects – 31.2% hard hit, 27.7% strikeout, and 12.6% swinging strike rates yielded a 3.80 FIP/4.17 xFIP. Although Manoah’s path forward could go either way, there is very little pointing toward the 6’6″ righty’s wicked fastball/slider combo falling off steeply in 2022. In reality, additional innings at or below 4.00 FIP puts Alek in that mid-2.0 to 3.0 WAR production range. Not bad at all for a 24-year-old who just hit the minors in 2019.
Toronto’s rotation is looking even better, especially now that Seattle’s Yusei Kikuchi was brought in to fill the #5 slot. Kikuchi’s 29 starts tailed off in the second half – perhaps more than a coincidence that was when the Mariners strayed from their six man rotation approach – but the latter part of his 4.61 FIP/3.85 xFIP metrics speak to a low-4.00 FIP expectation in 2022. A little run support from the Jays lineup surely won’t hurt the 30-year-old lefty either. Now Ross Stripling and Nate Pearson, whose groin should be ready for Spring Training, can be reserved for depth or relief duty with a full complement of starters in place. Even with the reigning Cy Young long gone, this Toronto rotation should maintain 2021’s effectiveness. That’s a nod to front office denizens Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro right there.
— Bullpen —
It was a tale of two halves for the bullpen. Their first half 4.08 FIP ballooned .70 points as the home runs piled up during the summer. Yet through all that mess the Blue Jays found their go-to closer Jordan Romano. The results were there: 23 saves, 1 blown save, and a 7-1 record. And the underlying goods do not disagree. Romano got it done with a 14.5% swinging strike rate, more velocity, and reduced hard contact. The good news is that very little indicates significant regression for the former Rule 5 guy. Toss in the lefty/righty setup pair of Tim Mayza and Adam Cimber and the Jays have a stout high-leverage workforce. Cimber was brilliant in his 39 appearances after joining Toronto in July, sporting his excellent command and ground ball magic – something that Mayza ratcheted up by leaning heavily on frustratingly-effective sinkers.
The concept of taking a slightly below average bullpen and expecting a significant bump up with minor personnel changes takes a second to settle out. Especially when two of the group’s three worst performers of 2021 remain. Rafael Dolis and his massive walk problem are gone; Trent Thornton and Adam Borucki will likely get their chances to atone for a pair of near-5.00 ERAs. It’s the low-4.00 xFIPs and bloated home run rates that point toward reversing their negative valuations into a collective net gain of close to 1 win. Add that to the 50-inning, 4.00ish FIP group of Yimi Garcia, Trevor Richards, and Julian Merryweather that should bridge the middle innings with those big bats supporting them. Chalk up the Jays bullpen for a 1 win bump or better in 2022.
Baltimore Orioles 2022 Win Total: Open 61.5, Now 62.5
2021 Result: Under 64.5 (52-110 / Pythag = 54)
What an ugly season in Baltimore. They still showcased to their fans one of the brightest stars on the field: center fielder Cedric Mullins. But 52 wins? Really? The O’s truly could use a few shots in the arm to climb back towards respectability. Otherwise another 100+ loss season is in their future. Did management go out and make those moves? Is there enough upside within their existing roster to climb out of the cellar?
Key Personnel Changes
Additions:
- Jordan Lyles – RHP (SP)
- Robinson Chirinos – C
Subtractions:
- Pedro Severino – C
BetCrushers 2022 Win Projection Range: 62 – 69
— Position Players —
Welcome to the Cedric Mullins show, folks. Baltimore’s superstar centerfielder seemingly exploded out of the blue last season, slashing .291/.360/.518 with a 136 wRC+, 30 homers, 91 runs, and 30 stolen bases. Did this breakout coincidentally align with him scrapping the switch hitter thing? Well, Jake Mailhot didn’t think so either. By focusing on a single swing mechanic, Mullins delivered noticeably better results exclusively from the left side of the plate – exit velocity, hard hit rate, swinging strikeout rate, etc. Was the 40% jump in wRC+ between the 2020 and 2021 seasons sustainable for the foreseeable future? In other words, can Mullins keep pace with last year’s 5.3 WAR? I respect the projections in the 3.0-4.0 range, though I tend to lean toward the high side under the premise that those line drive spray charts of his are legit.
Despite another season of failing to meet their modest expectations, the Orioles’ homegrown talent is at an inflection point in 2022. Mullins showed his teammates what peak performance looks like, though it is unclear if guys like Ryan Mountcastle and Austin Hays have that kind of higher gear. What we do know is they are both plus-hitters and possess some of the best talent in the lineup. Where Hays lacks in Mountcastle’s power, he is a phenomenal outfielder who avoids a lot of empty at bats. As a defensive liability, Ryan showed that he needs to be hidden on the diamond – whether it be at first base or in the DH spot. In terms of improving the team as a whole, their challenge is to top last season’s 106-111 wRC+ performances as 2-win lineup regulars.
It Takes a Village
As you’d expect in dissecting a 52-win season, it takes much more than one superstar to keep a team afloat. Pitching woes aside, this lineup failed to escape from the bottom third of the league in overall offensive production and strikeout rate. Adding insult to injury, their 659 runs were fifth lowest in the majors and second lowest in the American League. Even Cedric Mullins’ all-around big year couldn’t lift their defense from the middle of the pack. No knock against Mullins whatsoever, as I expect the Orioles’ fielding to stay in the vicinity of last year’s neutral zone rating and negative DRS. They also suffered from a pair of outfielders failing to repeat their strong, yet short-lived, 2020 seasons. DJ Stewart and Anthony Santander could not maintain their 123 and 130 wRC+, respectively, and should produce league-average levels in 2022.
Since management did next to nothing to bring in reinforcements, the overwhelming burden of improving the lineup must come from within. Trey Mancini’s return was emotionally uplifting as he continued his up year, down year pattern with a modest 21-homer, .255/.326/.432 season. Look for the 30-year-old to be better at the plate with another post-recovery year under his belt. As for the rest of Baltimore’s infield, manager Brandon Hyde will have his hands full juggling his subpar pieces. Light-hitting third baseman Kelvin Gutierrez, prospect Rylan Bannon, and a declining Rougned Odor aren’t Pat Valaika bad but leave a lot to be desired for a major league club. We’re talking about a group of 80-ish wRC+ players with okay fielding skills. I am curious to see how Ramon Urias backs up his sharp .275/.361/.412 half-season and whether he can shake nasty splits in which he hits 70 points lower against lefties.
In Search of a Backstop
Early signs point toward Orioles’ top prospect catcher Adley Rutschman making his major league debut sometime this season. The path is clearer now more than ever. Baltimore jettisoned Chance Sisco in the middle of 2021 after more wheel spinning from a guy who just couldn’t get his defense together. In the offseason, the cupboards were further cleaned out as Pedro Severino left in free agency and Austin Wynns cleared waivers. Turns out that a career .214 batting average and bad fielding don’t mix behind the plate. Those three were a horrific compilation that produced bottom-of-the-barrel defense and bottom five offense at the position.
This is where the MLB #1 overall prospect and 2019 first overall draft pick swoops in with his superhero cape, right? Chances are, management will play the service time game with Rutschman to gain that seventh year of team control – although anything goes with this organization. The switch hitting 24-year-old is a defensive stud behind the plate and possesses significant power with the bat. After missing 2020 along with the nearly all of his minor league cohorts, Rutschman blew through AA and made his mark at Norfolk as a disciplined hitter with a .312/.405/.490 slash line. His value to the Orioles next year greatly depends on how long he spends with the club, ranging from 2.5 to 3.0+ WAR as the kid is expected to hit right away.
In the meantime, the birds are looking at some rough times behind the plate with stopgaps like 37-year-old Robinson Chirinos and Jacob Nottingham. The timing in which the club calls up Adley Rutschman makes a difference to the macro-level outlook for Baltimore’s offense. Keep an eye on his triceps injury and whether it lingers, potentially pushing back his call-up. Assuming a mid-season arrival, the Orioles should gain a couple percentage points of offense as their infield holes partially negate positive regression from Santander and Mancini.
— Rotation —
Let’s call a spade a spade here – there is plenty of room for improvement with this pitching staff. Unfortunately, this is the same old song and dance in Baltimore. 2021 was extra special as half of the rotation’s production came from the departed Matt Harvey and current reliever Jorge Lopez. The other half came courtesy of their #1, John Means, whose immense talent butted heads with the reality of low strikeout and high home run rates. Although he’s not a strikeout pitcher per se, the lefty is sustaining a strong 12-ish% swinging strike rate – so you can argue that his stuff is good. What if Means is even better next year? There’s the dreaded good news, bad news proposition with downside risk that he becomes a valuable trade chip.
There has to be improvement for a bottom 5 rotation that posted a league-high 5.42 FIP, right? Fortunately, Baltimore’s pitching staff is full of players who got their first real tastes of the big leagues last year. Guys like Bruce Zimmermann, Keegin Akin, Dean Kremer, and Zac Lowther – all lefties except for Kremer – stand to gain from more reps in year two(ish) of their MLB careers. For this motley crew, it truly comes down to who can stay healthy and keep their damn FIPs/ERAs/whatevers on the right side of 5.00. Good luck figuring out which ones though, as this group is full of players whose futures are quite volatile.
In Search of Bulk
Plus you can’t expect their workloads to suddenly jump from 110 to 160 innings. Means is another story, but getting to 900 innings for the group requires cycling in more subpar or unproven arms like a call-up of top prospect Grayson Rodriguez or giving DL Hall another shot to work out his control woes. Another way to confront the issue is to pick up a cheap veteran workhorse. It cost $7M to bring in 31-year-old Jordan Lyles after his career-high 180 inning season in Texas. Baltimore’s cry for help could be answered by 150+ innings IF the club can stomach Lyles’ 5.00+ FIP pitching. For our good friends who are Orioles fans – you shall remain anonymous – I hope to be wrong. But their starting pitchers are destined to wallow as one of the league’s worst groups for a sixth straight year.
— Bullpen —
The rotation’s struggle to soak up enough innings spilled over to a really bad bullpen. It was so bad that the unit touted a league-high 5.70 ERA and 4.87 FIP over 666.2 innings. That was third most behind San Diego and Tampa Bay, the latter of which successfully navigated that complicated opener-starter-reliever scheme. Baltimore’s silver lining is that the 100 brutal innings pitched by Cesar Valdez and Adam Plutko were partially offset by solid work from Paul Fry, Dillon Tate, Tyler Wells, and Cole Sulser. Valdez, Plutko, and their combined 6.00+ ERA and 5.00+ FIP are long gone – overseas for the latter, to be exact – while the club returns most of their better relievers in 2022.
After shedding most of the bullpen’s dead weight, the Orioles relief unit could be a tick better than last year’s baseline. However, if they are leaned on heavily once again the need for bulk middle relief will counteract much of this improvement. A veteran like Jorge Lopez moving to the pen helps with the innings issue if he gets his control issues under wraps. Last season’s 6.07 ERA, 5.20 FIP, and 10.1% walk rate simply will not cut it. The 29-year-old’s 1-year/$1.5M deal says last chance for Jorge and we shall see what that ultimatum does for this group.
Locking Down the Back End
Not unlike most clubs, the majority of Baltimore’s value in the bullpen lies at the back end. Tyler Wells’ rookie campaign was quite successful after a rocky road to get there. The Rule 5 selection rebounded from his 2019 Tommy John surgery, working 57.0 innings in relief for the O’s. Wells effectively utilized a fastball/slider combo to yield a strong 13.8% swinging strike rate and 5.42 K/BB ratio. Unfortunately, he faces an uphill climb in the face of a .226 BABIP and 21.4% ground ball rate. The red flags of regression are not as apparent with Cole Sulser or Tanner Scott, though the latter has struggled with walks throughout his career. Nonetheless, these are sub-4.00 FIP arms that get a lot of swinging strikes and avoid the long ball. I really do not hate their high-leverage relievers at all. It’s just a matter of getting to them that concerns me.
WAGER: Orioles Over 57.5 -113 (3/13 BetRivers)
2022 AL East Projected Standings
- New York Yankees (100-62)
- Toronto Blue Jays (95-67)
- Tampa Bay Rays (90-72)
- Boston Red Sox (85-77)
- Baltimore Orioles (66-96)
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