Sunday’s Daytona 500 was a prime example of superspeedway racing, also known as a 200-MPH crap shoot. Races at Daytona and Talladega are exciting as hell, especially in the later laps when guys are antsy and cars are nose-to-tail at extremely high speeds. The Cup Series circuit travels from the 2.5-mile Daytona International Speedway to the 1.5-mile tri-oval in the southern Nevada desert. The stakes are high in Sin City, so lets dive into the BetCrushers.com race preview for the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas.
Our Daytona race preview looked for the Toyotas to shine after looking good at Friday’s practice. Their in-race strategy had us all guessing, including Fox Sports commentators and NASCAR veterans Jeff Gordon and Larry McReynolds. Keeping the four Joe Gibbs Toyotas grouped together looked to be paying off until Erik Jones’ pit mishap put him back in the back. Then everything went to hell in a series of high-speed crashes that knocked out quite a few drivers, including long-time Cup Series racer Ryan Newman. I’m sure you’ve seen that insane crash many times already, so there’s no need for me to post it again. Fortunately, the 2020 Pennzoil 400 will not be shrouded in a black cloud after Newman miraculously walked out of the hospital on Wednesday.
Kings of Vegas
Daytona 500 “villain” Joey Logano is the Pennzoil 400 defending champion. The most recent Las Vegas winner is Martin Truex, Jr., who took down the South Point 400 to kick off the 2019 NASCAR postseason. In fact, four big guns of the Cup Series have won the last eight races at Vegas. Kevin Harvick and Truex won twice, Logano once, and Brad Keselowski took the checkered flag three times. If it means anything to you, Keselowski won in 2014, 2016, and fall of 2018. Will he continue the trend and win here in 2020? If so, will it happen on Sunday or in the fall? As of Thursday morning, his odds to win the race sit in the +600 to +680 range if you have a strong opinion.
Going Streaking
Of these four recent champions, three of them come into this week’s race with ongoing success at Vegas. Martin Truex, Jr. has finished in the Top 10 five times in a row, including a pair of wins and four Top 5s. Joey Logano’s 2019 Pennzoil 400 win came during his run of eight straight Top 10s with five Top 5s. Perhaps the most impressive of them all is Brad Keselowski’s streak. Brad and his #2 Ford Mustang team look to finish Top 10 in the desert for the tenth time in a row on Sunday. His run includes the three wins mentioned above and seven Top 5s. There’s a reason why these teams are perennial contenders for the NASCAR Championship, and consistency is a big part of it.
On the Radar
A new season brings new expectations for several Cup Series drivers, one of which is Daytona 500 runner-up Ryan Blaney. Blaney survived 209 laps of mayhem only to be edged out by Denny Hamlin in a photo finish. He concluded a strong 2019 season with four solid performances and a win at Talladega. Many assume that Blaney is ready to go deep in the 2020 postseason and challenge for a spot in the final four as one of the circuit’s young guns. His Daytona finish gave a lot of credence in those assumptions, and Ryan has a good chance to follow it up with a big Pennzoil 400.
Matt DiBenedetto took over the #21 Wood Brothers Ford Mustang this offseason after Paul Menard’s retirement. It’s doubtful that I will make a play on Matty D in Vegas this weekend, though I am curious to see if he can crack the Top 20 in his new ride. DiBenedetto’s best finish at Las Vegas is 21st, which he did here twice last year. Punching through that barrier could be attributed to one or both of two factors: 1) his progression as a Cup Series driver and 2) a having a better car with the #21 team. Paul Menard finished no worse than 15th place in all eleven races at Vegas since 2011. A finish in the mid-teens or better could be a positive indicator to bump up expectations for Matty D at tri-oval tracks this season.
Handicapping the Pennzoil 400
If you’re new to NASCAR betting, get used to a familiar sight on the to-win odds boards: Kyle Busch on top. The pack of four just below him (Harvick, Truex, Keselowski, and Logano) should not be a surprise considering the streaks they are on at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway. Those four drivers are responsible for the last eight wins here and will return less than 10:1 odds to win the race.
Las Vegas-native Kyle Busch had a disappointing 19th-place finish in the fall 2019 race but has done well in the Pennzoil 400 recently, placing 3rd and 2nd in the last two years. Ironically, racing in Vegas is less of a crap shoot than it is at Daytona and Talladega where I am typically a lot more conservative. I’ll be opening up my wallet more this week and have taken a few positions before the teams take the track for weekend activities.
Aric Almirola (-130) over Clint Bowyer
This matchup is fairly straightforward to me. Aric Almirola has been solid here since 2017, finishing no worse than 14th place and snagging Top 10s in the last two Pennzoil 400s. -130 juice is not great for a matchup play but it is as good as it gets in the pre-practice and qualifying wager offerings if you want to fade Clint Bowyer; and that’s the fundamental handicap behind this play. I have a lot of respect for Clint and must recognize those tracks where veterans like Bowyer have consistently been non-factors. Las Vegas is one of those venues. He’s failed to finish in the Top 10 since 2017 and has been 14th or worse in four of the last nine races here, getting outraced by AA in four of the last five.
Ryan Blaney (+275) to Top 5
As I highlighted earlier, expectations are high for Ryan Blaney in 2020. His stock may be on the high side after the Daytona 500 runner up, but I think he deserves a look again this weekend. Although the #12 Penske team stumbled in the 2019 Pennzoil 400, they’ve been quite consistent in Vegas since 2016. Blaney finished 5th in three of his last four here and has a great shot to keep things going on Sunday.
Denny Hamlin (-118) not to Top 5
Especially after Hamlin’s Daytona 500 win, I may be going against the grain to take a stand against him in Vegas. However, Denny has failed to finish better than 10th in the last four races here. In fact, the #11 Joe Gibbs Toyota has finished in the Top 5 only once (2015) and has been outside of the Top 10 more often than it has been inside of it. Starting strong at Daytona is a regular thing for Denny, as is finishing outside of the Top 5 at Las Vegas.
Spring is in the Air
Spring Training is rocking and exhibition baseball games begin this Friday. I can’t believe how close we are to the MLB season getting into full swing, but the prep is in full effect at BetCrushers.com. We’ve loaded a fifth season win total ticket into our futures portfolio after putting the finishing touches on the NL East preview article. Our season preview series kicks off Monday with a look at the NL West – a division that we’ve already invested heavily in. Follow us on Twitter or subscribe below to get email alerts when new handicapping articles drop.
