Whoever’s idea it was to schedule these mid-week Cup Series races deserves a big pat on the back and a case of Busch beer. These night races have been a fantastic addition to the schedule, regardless of whether they are driven by COVID or not. The Cup Series now heads north for the 2020 Super Start Batteries 400 at Kansas Speedway. You better believe any time there’s racing in Clint Boyer’s back yard it’s gonna be a good time. Fire up the engines and turn on the lights for some Thursday night action!
Messin’ with Texas
Rolling the dice with pit strategy paid off for the second weekend in a row. The absence of tire wear has driven a mixed bag of how crew chiefs handled this at Kentucky and Texas. The winning formula appears to be stay out as long as you can and hope for a caution to make that final pit stop. Nobody benefitted more Quin Houff’s late “jobber caution” than Richard Childress Racing’s Austin Dillon and rookie Tyler Reddick. They took the lead after former leader Ryan Blaney got stuck a lap down after the final pit cycle. Don’t get me wrong, credit is due to race winner Dillon and runner-up Reddick for holding on to those top positions with a hungry pack behind them. As for Ryan Blaney’s misfortune, I’ll get to that soon enough.
Austin Dillon was a long shot winner in the second straight points race after Cole Custer scored at Kentucky. These drivers represent the ninth and tenth teams locked into the postseason, leaving only six unsecured berths. Little changed with the top eight in the playoff rankings except for Ryan Blaney swapping positions with Chase Elliott. Blaney’s sweep of both stages at Texas made the difference. In case anyone is still wondering why Kevin Harvick gets such short odds from the bookmakers, just look at the stats he is putting up. The Closer has delivered the most Top 5s, Top 10s, and laps led this season. Plus, he’s tied for the most wins with Denny Hamlin and has zero DNFs. Care to guess who will be the early favorite at Kansas?
What About Our Bankroll?
When it comes to our early positions at Texas, I figured that the Kurt Busch Top 10 play would give us the most sweat. Ironically, I had the most confidence in that one. Kurt ran around that pivotal 10th place position all day, though mostly on the right side of it. Pit strategy and the Houff caution favored him, but it also hooked his brother up with a few extra positions. That timely yellow ultimately led to Kyle’s 4th place finish. Rowdy overcame a spin through the grass plus Kevin Harvick and Erik Jones stalking him on the final lap to beat us. The Busch Brothers plays split, shaving about 1/3 of a unit away.
My favorite bet of the three turned out to be Sunday’s difference-maker: Ryan Blaney over Brad Keselowski. We pounced on Blaney as a -115 pick ’em at the open before it ballooned to -200 on race day. His #12 car looked to be the real deal all the way up to the caution on Lap 306. With 150 laps led, Ryan was significantly faster than Penske teammate Brad Keselowski yet found himself behind the 8-ball with just a handful of laps to go. Blaney’s speed and aggression pulled his Mustang along with Kurt Busch’s Camaro right by Keselowski when it mattered the most. Ryan seems to be taking his misfortune in stride, though his backers may not be. That was a tough loss for anyone who bet him to win or in the Top 3/Top 5 markets.
400 Miles to Victory at Kansas Speedway
Kansas Speedway hosts the third points race in a row held on a 1.5-mile intermediate track. In 2001, It joined Kentucky and Texas as a new stop on the Cup Series circuit during NASCAR’s expansion era. I took stock of Kansas Speedway’s similarities to these tracks in the Kentucky race preview. This is important to note when handicapping, as intermediate track hawks like Martin Truex, Jr. have this week’s venue right in their crosshairs. Thursday’s action is a full pull of 267 laps on the progressive-banked tri-oval, which differs from the weekday encore races held after NASCAR’s return at Darlington and Charlotte.
Tires and Their Implications
“We have a new left-side tire for Kansas, with a construction update that we have been rolling into most tracks over this season, paired with a right-side tire the teams have a good notebook on after having run it seven times already this year,” said Greg Stucker, Goodyear’s director of racing. “What we have seen Kansas over the past several races is that the track surface has weathered a bit and will wear tires. This right-side tire is also designed to lay rubber, so that will lead to the track changing throughout the weekend as multiple racing grooves are created.”
Goodyear Fast Facts — Kansas – jayski.com – October 25, 2019
Goodyear began these special tire accommodations in 2018 to account for Kansas Speedway’s rougher surface. Drivers generally like to have some tire falloff for additional grip to the track, and Kansas provides more of a happy medium in this regard. The surface is not brutally abrasive like Atlanta or Fontana, but it could be a larger factor in this race. Then again, the higher downforce packages necessitate a tougher tire for safety reasons. The tougher tire does not wear as quickly, partially mitigating the falloff. It’s a vicious cycle, folks.
Martin’s Kind of Track
MTJ’s success on these 1.5-mile tracks was essential in winning the 2017 NASCAR Cup Championship. Of his eight wins that year, six of them came on these seven tracks.
The 2020 Quaker State 400 at Kentucky (7/12/2020) – BetCrushers.com – July 8, 2020
Truex pulled the Kansas sweep on his way to winning the 2017 Cup Championship, exerting a newfound dominance here. It was a dream season for MTJ and the #78 Furniture Row Racing team. That year, he qualified 3rd in the spring race then earned the pole in the playoff run. His team provided a fast car, earning Truex starting positions no worse than 7th in four straight races. It wasn’t until 2017 that he merged that fast car with skills honed sharp enough to take both checkered flags. Somehow, this wasn’t good enough for sponsor Five Hour Energy. It forced Furniture Row Racing to fold the squad after a successful runner-up 2018 campaign. The news was bittersweet for Martin, who drove this team to the pinnacle of the sport. Fortunately, he landed on his feet when the Joe Gibbs Racing #19 became available.
Furniture Row’s affiliation with JGR streamlined Truex and crew chief Cole Pearn’s transition to a new Toyota Camry. Unfortunately, the visits to Kansas in the 2019 campaign failed to meet their expectations. MTJ’s #19 Camry finished a lap down in the May race after qualifying poorly. This dud was easy to overlook since it happened in between wins at Dover and the Coke 600. October’s Hollywood Casino 400 was a step in the right direction, as Truex finished both stages in the Top 5 and ultimately claimed 6th place.
Another Prime Spot for a Rebound?
It is well documented that Pearn left the team unexpectedly in the offseason. I, and quite a few others, have wondered just how impactful this change is. Just as the season was about to return from the COVID break, I noted that Truex appeared to be the weakest link in the Gibbs stable. It made sense that the learning curve with new crew chief James Small was a big factor. Then they rattled off four straight Top 10 finishes at Darlington and Charlotte, marking a comeback of sorts. The high water mark of Martin’s 2020 season is undoubtedly his Martinsville win, which locked him into the playoffs come hell or high water.
Every time things start to look up for MTJ, something wacky happens. He followed up a disastrous day at Indy with a runner-up at Kentucky. This was no ordinary 2nd place finish – it was one where he started from the rear and systematically stalked his way to the front. As luck would have it, teammate Kyle Busch spun him out at Texas, ending Truex’s impressive run. He was well within the Top 10 at the time and had challenged for Top 5 positions throughout the race. The setup and race strategy is very similar to the last two weeks, which should be good signs for MTJ. Does Kansas hold the key to another bounce back spot for the #19 team?
Chase’s Hot Hand
Arguably, there is nobody hotter at Kansas than Chase Elliott. Chase finished no worse than 4th in four of the five contests run since the 2017 Hollywood Casino 400. He may not qualify well here, but Alan Gustafson and company know how to get the #9 Chevy live for race day. In fact, Elliott started last May’s race in 32nd place and made quick strides to finish Stage 1 in 2nd place. He was one of nine teams popped with a pre-race inspection failure. Although Chase could not seal the deal and settled for 4th, Elliott showed us again how well he can run 400 miles at Kansas Speedway. This team will get a favorable starting position via the draw, giving him a good start in seeking a second victory at Kansas and a second win in this season.
We have not featured Chase much in our plays much this season. This contrasts with 2019, where we had the #9 sprinkled on our card throughout the year. Maybe it’s a pricing issue or I’m just subconsciously avoiding him. Chase’s six letdowns this year – not all his fault, of course – must weigh heavily on my evaluations despite his numerous successes. Many of my concerns with this team comes back to Hendrick’s current state of affairs and how their machines regularly seem to be one step behind Penske’s.
That said, this team has produced quite a few bright spots this year. Elliott grabbed a big win in the mid-week Charlotte encore after just missing victory lane at the Coke 600 a few days prior. He vied for back-to-back season wins at Bristol until he slid up into Joey Logano as the rounded the final turn. Then there’s his 5th at Martinsville, runner-up at Homestead, and so on. Don’t count Chase out his week similar to what Ryan Blaney did on Sunday. Can he seal the deal and leapfrog Blaney for the fifth spot on the playoff standings? More importantly, will the oddsmakers give us something juicy to bite on?
The BetCrushers Betting Card
If you expected someone other than Kevin Harvick to sit on top of the board, think again. As the only driver to win and finish all 18 races this season, Harvick was the short opening favorite at 4/1. The defending “spring” Kansas race winner, Brad Keselowski, sits below a handful of the big guns at 9/1. Denny Hamlin is the most recent winner here and gets his due respect on the board. Clearly I’m not the only one to think highly of MTJ and Chase in this spot, as they’re on the heels of the top dog.
Chase Elliott +105 vs. Ryan Blaney
This is the week where Ryan Blaney really sticks it to me, right? The only thing that seems to be in the way of the #12 team these days is…well, the #12 team. Outside of the bland performances at Pocono and Indy, Blaney puts his Penske Mustang in contention week in and week out. If there’s another legitimate race contender who’s suffered his share of near misses this season, it’s Chase Elliott. Clipped by Kyle at Darlington, wiping out Logano at Bristol, and failing to threaten due to a transmission issue at Pocono are some of Chase’s lowlights.
So why did I jump on Chase against one of the Cup Series’ hottest drivers? Price. These two young guns have raced each other to a 9-9 split this season, giving and taking along the way. That said, Blaney is getting most of the hype right now. And deservedly so. When this kid is on, the #12 is lightning fast. Then again, you can say the same thing about Elliott and his Camaro. I handicap these two as equals on a vanilla track where both have run well.
However, Chase has produced here in recent years while Ryan has spun his wheels. Blaney could regain his pre-2018 Kansas form that was significantly better than Elliott’s, except that the downforce configuration and tire situation overlaps with this timeline. Maybe it’s just a coincidence. It’s only a four-race sample after all. Nonetheless, this opening price was about 25-30 cents off in my opinion. Give me the plus money in a battle of NASCAR’s heirs apparent, favoring Chase and his excellent work at Kansas Speedway.
Kurt Busch Top 10 (-106)
In Kurt we trust…again. Kansas provides another opportunity for Busch to claim his third Top 10 finish in a row. My notes from this past weekend pointed to Texas as a gauge for Kurt’s form on these intermediate tracks. He delivered with an 8th place finish following a 5th at Kentucky, indicating to me that he is hitting his target range at these tracks. Kurt’s form is approaching that of the Top 10 run he started at the Coke 600 in late May. Now it’s like my handicaps for the senior Busch Brother are venturing into the meta – quoting the previous week’s position that referenced the one before that.
Similar to last week’s handicap, I made a strong case in the intro for a solid finish from Kurt Busch. With Texas being the second in a string of three consecutive races at favorable tracks for him, he’s in the middle of a sweet spot and should be settling in. This week’s track is arguably less sweet than the other two, but it’s definitely not salty. The Top 10 consistency that we love from Kurt is front and center in the Lone Star State.
The 2020 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Texas (7/19/2020) – BetCrushers.com – July 17, 2020
What honestly surprised me is Kurt’s opening price in this week’s Top 10 market. As the defending champion at Kentucky, the -125 tag for race made sense. Move ahead one week to Texas where his price dropped to -110 and I could not refuse the offer. Now we’re staring at less juice for Thursday’s race after Kurt exhibited that he is hitting his targets on these 1.5-mile tracks. And for the most part, his spot here has been inside the Top 10 for the most part in recent years.
Busch missed the Top 10 mark in just three of the last ten Kansas races. Evan after moving to the #1 Chip Ganassi Camaro last year, he still posted solid 7th and 4th place finishes. This veteran knows his role and can be counted on to make that final push to squeeze out as many race points as he can. These are vanilla tracks and Busch is not one to be picky when it comes to the flavor. If it’s not broke, don’t fix it. -106 for Kurt Busch to finish in the Top 10 is a great price for another 60% proposition.
Batter Up!
NASCAR takes the weekend off before making their way to New Hampshire to lead off the month of August. In the meantime, the MLB season fires up Thursday night alongside the 400-mile race at Kansas Speedway. Stay connected with us on Twitter and be sure to visit our NASCAR page to find our handicaps and early plays. Or have email alerts delivered straight to your inbox by subscribing below:
