The defending Cup Series Champion Kyle Busch was dismissed from the 2020 NASCAR Playoffs along with three other playoff drivers at the Roval last weekend. A wet start ended in a decisive victory by – you guessed it – Chase Elliott. Elliott answered any remaining questions about his road course prowess with his fourth straight RC win. It’s crunch time now with the Round of 8 firing up at Kansas Speedway. So buckle up and get ready to roll!
Elimination at the Roval
Chase’s Roval win makes his pre-race comments about adapting to a potentially wet track very prescient. The precipitation aspect was a new twist on things, and I’ll defer to Paul at NASCARstyleodds.com for his thorough take on the wet race. I admit to being thoroughly confused in the early goings as some teams changed from wet tires to slicks – and vice versa? Rain or no rain, pit strategy played a big part in how the race unfolded. It did for some more than others, you could say. Clint Bowyer rolled the dice early and ultimately crapped out. Kyle Busch pushed his luck later in Stage 3 but fell short as well. Their common denominator: each was in a must-win scenario to stay alive. They had no other choice.
Austin Dillon and Aric Almirola were non-factors at the Roval, becoming the other two drivers eliminated from the postseason. The remaining eight contenders now face the three-race gauntlet of Kansas, Texas, and Martinsville. As far as Alex Bowman and Kurt Busch are concerned, they are essentially in “win or go home” scenarios from here on out. Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin don’t have a ton to worry about with their comfortable points leads above the cut line. If disaster strikes them more than once in this round, their prime positions could be ripped from underneath them.
Squeezing Out Some Scratch
Aside from pumping up the already-hyped Chase Elliott in last week’s handicap, I picked a single horse and hitched my wagon to him. Alex Bowman was the culprit who literally wrecked my Aric Almirola ticket in the previous week at Talladega. Still, it was too difficult to deny the fact that AB was very successful in the first two years at the Roval. “They” may have slept on Bowman in the playoffs, but I wasn’t going to pass him up in this race.
Fading Kurt Busch in a matchup play was not an option for me. So instead I went to the placing markets and laid -134 on a Top 10 wager for 2/3rds of a position, then rounded it off with +260 on a Top 5 for the other 1/3rd. As expected, the #88 Hendrick Motorsports team looked strong in multiple segments of the race. Unfortunately, the tire scenario and body damage relegated him to a precarious Top 10 finish. Bowman’s 8th place result was not exactly what I was looking for, though the risk-reward curve was just right for the situation. The result of my combo play was a 0.33-unit win, lifting the season net to a healthy +13.4 units. Not great, but good enough considering how things went down at the Roval.
Kansas Speedway: A Track Fit for the Big Boys
With Talladega and the Roval in the rearview mirror, the Round of 8 gets down to business at Kansas Speedway Sunday afternoon. The Hollywood Casino 400 features 267 laps on the 1.5-mile tri-oval. This style of intermediate track may be vanilla in many respects, but Kansas Speedway’s rough surface has a way of shaking things up. Tire wear should be a prominent factor affecting race flow, as it has been for years here. Weather permitting, we should have a well-contested race with pit strategy and hard racing.
Rinse and Repeat
The remaining field of playoff teams have to be thrilled for this week’s change of venue. Just look at where they’ve been recently. Talladega was a crapshoot, as expected. Then there was the strategy nightmare at the Roval with a wet start and two types of tires. This week’s tri-oval, however, rewards the best teams for putting together a complete package and executing the game plan. Kansas should reward speed, a good pit crew, and solid race strategy from the crew chief. Most of the Round of 8 teams feature all three. Just look to recent results here for some proof – the last eight Kansas races have been won by five of the eight remaining contenders:
- Denny Hamlin (2x – 2019, 2020)
- Brad Keselowski (1x – 2019)
- Chase Elliott (1x – 2018)
- Kevin Harvick (2x – 2016, 2018)
- Martin Truex, Jr. (2x – 2017, 2017)
Not only did Denny Hamlin win the Kansas race this past July, he is also the defending Hollywood Casino 400 winner. Hamlin’s win earlier in the year was the spark that ignited a six-race rampage in which he won two races, was runner-up in three, and a “disappointing” 6th. Kevin Harvick had a slightly rougher road at Kansas in recent years, though you don’t have to look back very far to find his dominant days. Harvick surely wants to get that W early in the Round of 8, but he should feel confident knowing that Texas is next – a track where The Closer has rattled off twelve straight Top 10s.
A Timely Change for Truex?
Martin Truex, Jr. finds himself back on friendly asphalt for a change “Mile-and-a-Half Martin” (nickname credit to @NASCARstyleodds) hasn’t been great at Texas, but Kansas is a different story. MTJ’s 3rd place finish back in July sparked his own hot streak that rivaled Hamlin’s. Truex scored five straight 3rd place finishes, then was runner-up in both Dover contests and 4th at Daytona. That summertime hot streak likely saved the #19 team’s season. Kansas could provide another much-needed spark for Martin this weekend, keeping his championship prospects alive.
My July handicap reiterated just how crucial this 1.5-mile track was for Truex’s run to the 2017 NASCAR Championship. It showed that his summer 2019 letdown race was a brief interruption in the course of six finishes of 6th or better here. A win this weekend would put most of the #19 team’s concerns to rest, though it’s not their only shot to punch a Championship 4 ticket. Crew chief James Small and company should be confident in knowing that they are live to three-peat at Martinsville on November 1st.
The Chase Elliott Groove
Last weekend’s all-weather victory at the Roval bought Chase Elliott five key playoff points. These points broke the deadlock between him and Joey Logano, giving Chase the early nod for the fourth and final position above the cut line. The Round of 8 sets up like a see-saw between these two – I give the edge to Elliott at Kansas, but Logano should return the favor at Texas. This makes Martinsville the potential chopping block if the #9 and #22 teams continue to surround that last slot for the Championship Four. With this in mind, Kansas is a pivotal track for Elliott’s postseason prospects yet again.
Consider the first half of the 2019 playoffs when Chase worked himself into a nice groove. His Roval victory guaranteed his spot in the Round of 12. Unfortunately, he went home early at Dover when engine issues struck after just eight laps. The following week he survived Talladega in 8th, then proceeded to punch his Round of 8 ticket at Kansas. Chase needed nearly every point from his runner-up finish to squeeze by Brad Keselowski. This #9 team should bring confidence to the track this weekend from his Roval victory and last season’s playoff successes in this scheduling groove. Don’t be surprised if Chase Elliott makes his way to the Championship 4, especially if he capitalizes here at Kansas.
The BetCrushers Betting Card
No surprises in this week’s opening odds to win the Hollywood Casino 400. The five drivers who account for the last eight Kansas wins are clearly represented at the top of the board. I cannot pick this list apart too harshly considering the leaders’ past successes. Brad Keselowski gets the short end of the stick amongst this tough crowd, which is more indicative of his current form than his failure to perform here in recent years.
The BetCrushers’ 2020 MVP: Kurt Busch
Regular readers of my NASCAR handicaps caught onto my tendency to back Kurt Busch this season. I’ve made 13 wagers on Kurt for a result of 11 wins and 2 losses. In fact, he delivered a perfect 6-0 on Top 10 positions and 5-2 on matchups. I’m also obligated to mention that I lost the one matchup bet that I placed against him. Busch accounted for nearly 17% of my 77 NASCAR wagers this year! The guy straight up gets it done in the spots that set up well for him. My frequency of betting him combined with his 84.6% win rate has earned Kurt Busch the title of The BetCrushers’ 2020 NASCAR MVP with four races still to go in the season. If you couldn’t tell where I am going with this, we’re back on the #1 Camaro to start the Round of 8 off right at Kansas Speedway.
Kurt Busch Top 10 -125
Kurt delivered a Top 10 winner for us in this summer’s Kansas race. His close-call 9th place finish was one of those six aforementioned Top 10 wagers that the #1 team cashed for us this season. This spot shapes up even better for our 2020 NASCAR MVP after a huge Round of 12. His unexpected win at Las Vegas sandwiched an unforgiving day at Talladega with a very impressive 4th place finish at the Charlotte Roval last weekend.
Kurt Busch is effectively faced with a must-win in any of these Round of 8 races, and Kansas could be his best shot. Consider how Busch has found the Top 10 in eight of the last eleven Cup races here. He even nailed down a runner-up finish at the 2017 Hollywood Casino 400 after lurking outside the lead pack for most of the race. Kurt’s 3-0 Top 10 run at Kansas since joining Chip Ganassi Racing in 2019 bodes well this weekend. The #1 Camaro is slated to start 3rd on Sunday, and I’ve laid -125 for Kurt Busch to make it four Top 10s in a row here. Note that this price carries a premium when compared to -106 in the July Kansas race, which I felt was a bargain for a 60% proposition. The price is still right down to -130.
Erik Jones Top 10 +100
Whether you’ve noticed or not, Erik Jones has been a consistent top finisher in the 2020 playoffs. The bad thing for Erik is that he’s not a playoff contender and is essentially auditioning for a job right now. Joe Gibbs’ #20 Toyota will be taken over in 2021 by the next up-and-comer Christopher Bell. A team has yet to step up and claim Jones, but he is making a strong case for his next landing spot. My support isn’t based on a motivation angle though. I’m looking at a prime convergence of track-specific success and very good current form.
Despite failing to make the playoffs, Jones is one of the hottest drivers right now. His current run over the last six weeks is even rivaling that of Chase Elliott and Kevin Harvick. Outside of a disappointing 22nd at Richmond, Erik Jones has four Top 5 finishes and an 8th at Vegas. The #20 team is operating like a well-oiled machine these days and now they get to tear up Kansas. Since joining Joe Gibbs Racing in 2018, Jones has yet to finish worse than 7th here. Erik’s hard work has earned him a favorable 11th starting position for Sunday – a significant benefit to our wager. All signs point to another impressive Top 10 finish from Erik Jones in the friendly confines of Kansas Speedway at a good price of +100. In fact, this position is still worth playing down to -115.
4th Down and Four to Go
The clock is ticking towards the end of the 2020 NASCAR season with just four races to go. The Round of 8 moves from Kansas to Texas for another fast oval showdown. Who would have thought they could fit a full 36 race season in after the Atlanta race was cancelled due to COVID back in March? I’ll keep you covered through the rest of the NASCAR playoffs while Yanni brings the thunder with NFL handicaps, Prop Corner, and DFS tips. Connect with us on Twitter or subscribe below to receive email alerts:
