The Summer of NASCAR heads to the land of thoroughbred horses and bourbon whiskey after visiting the Tricky Triangle and the hallowed ground of Indy. There is no doubt that last Sunday’s rendition of the Brickyard 400 was a little more “exciting” than in previous years. You had a pit lane pileup and all sorts of in-race strategy implications. However, nothing compared to that crushing blow to the race leader while cruising to victory. All of that is in the rear-view mirror as the Cup Series makes its tenth visit to Kentucky Speedway for the 2020 Quaker State 400.
Fireworks in Indy
Things started off business as usual at Indianapolis Motor Speedway last weekend – with a lightning delay. The entire state of Indiana was clear of bad weather except for metropolitan Indianapolis around 3:00 central time. Once the race went green, it did not take long for fireworks of the manmade variety to get started. The opening competition caution took the field into a crowded pit road, where the tail end of the motorcade got snarled up. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr., Corey Lajoie, and an already-ailing Martin Truex, Jr. had their days ended before they ever truly started. Even Justin Allgaier, who was subbing in for Jimmie Johnson after his withdrawal due to COVID-19, suffered irreparable damage to the #48 Chevy.
Like Pocono the week prior, Indy brought out a variety of pit strategies that staggered the field throughout green- and yellow-flag action. The likes of Chase Elliott and William Byron provided some resistance to Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin, though the latter were truly the two to beat. Chris Gabehart and the #11 JGR team went toe-to-toe with Rodney Childers and the #4 SHR crew all evening. Both teams appeared to have it all figured out at the Brickyard, trading positions at the front of the pack throughout Sunday’s race. Harvick was holding off Hamlin without any other true challengers when the final pit window opened. Denny received the cue to pit except Kevin did not. Each hit their stalls all alone but a poor stop by the #4 team suddenly left Harvick several seconds behind.
A Fiery Finish
Then the unimaginable happened as Denny Hamlin had the firm upper hand. With just seven laps to go, Hamlin’s unassisted hard contact with the wall after a tire went down sent flames ripping through his Toyota Camry. It was a downright mind-blowing sight after watching the #11 cruise around the track without yielding track position. Kevin Harvick powered through the restart to hold off an amazing run by Matt Kenseth and earn his fourth win of the 2020 season. Sunday’s win extended his season points lead to 85 and his playoff points margin from two to eight.
Betting Card Review
Our three-matchup Brickyard betting card was supplemented with some help from our friends. Once the dust settled, the positions featured in the article left us hanging. Denny Hamlin over Kyle Busch was the most obvious fail, though I can take some solace in the fact that Hamlin was head and shoulders better than his teammate for 260 laps. Regardless, the #11’s fireworks display did not get paid out by the sportsbook and was graded squarely as a loss.
Denny’s late caution also torpedoed the Clint Bowyer/Kurt Busch play. Busch was taking his final stop when the yellow flag flew for Alex Bowman. Bowyer’s clean stop several laps prior put him firmly ahead of Busch, who left the caution one lap down. The Hamlin disaster put Kurt back on the lead lap, though still seven positions behind Clint for the overtime restart. Here’s my biased take on the finale: Bozos Austin Dillon and Matt DiBenedetto wiped out in front of Bowyer on the final lap, allowing Busch to finish three positions ahead.
There was some good news in all that mess. Alex Bowman’s tire issue forced him to slam the wall and allowed Stage One winner William Byron to snag a matchup win for us. Byron had the stronger car of the two all day, but a blown tire on a restart stuck him five laps down. You can say that Bowman’s exit was fortunate in an opposite manner of Byron’s. Those final seven laps snatched two wins out of our hands as the Busch brothers got the last laugh. That’s racin’, and that’s gamblin’. I feel that the reads were good again last week, so we’ll head to Kentucky with a positive attitude and the same approach. It’s time to crush.
Kentucky Overview
Kentucky Speedway is celebrating 20 years in action, but it wasn’t until 2011 that it hosted the first Cup race. It’s hard to believe that I can recall working on a big-box build just a couple exits down I-71 while it was under construction. With seating capacity now over 100,000, it typically gets a good turnout lying between Cincinnati and Louisville. Not this year, unfortunately.
This progressively banked 1.5-mile tri-oval mimics Las Vegas Motor Speedway and Kansas Speedway. Kentucky also shares similarities with three other intermediate tracks. The 1.5-mile quad-ovals at Charlotte, Texas, and Atlanta are essentially tri-ovals with their tips snipped off (yikes!). Since Kentucky is just a once-a-year stop for the Cup Series, having more data points and events to pull from is helpful in our handicapping.
“Fast lap times at Kentucky come from momentum. The place is so round that there’s not a ton of banking compared to some other 1.5-milers. It’s all about how round the corners are and just being able to maintain corner speed and stay on the gas. It’s a place we get excited about, for sure.”
Kyle Busch, MRN.com’s 2019 Kentucky Weekend Preview
If Kyle’s excited, we’re excited. Modifications prior to the 2016 racing season created a wider, steeper-banked Turn 1 to promote better restarts and more competitive racing. The track was resurfaced that year as well, so excessive tire wear should not be a major factor this weekend. As for the quality of the tire itself, well, the jury is still out. Just ask Denny. I have not read anything definitive yet, but I anticipate the return of the PJ1 traction compound on the turns again this year.
Battle of the Busch Brothers
If you watched the 2019 Quaker State 400, I bet you can remember that last lap. Kurt Busch held the middle groove as his younger brother battled down low. They traded some blows coming around the final turn as Kurt edged him out under the lights. Kyle’s pursuit of a third Cup victory at Kentucky Speedway fell just short. Given the younger Busch’s extensive resume, it really shouldn’t surprise you that he’s been a stalwart here. He won the inaugural Cup race back in 2011, then took care of business again in 2015. No wonder it’s a place he gets excited to race at.
Two victories at Kentucky is one thing, but the consistent high level of racing the #18 team has realized here is even more impressive. Kyle placed 10th in 2012 and 12th in 2016; otherwise he’s been a Top 5 finisher in the other seven Cup races. He placed no worse than 3rd in any of the six stages since that format was adopted in 2017. Although Kurt had the last laugh, little brother may very well be the top dog at Kentucky Speedway.
Don’t sleep on the older Busch here though. Kurt is a very consistent 1.5-mile track racer (ironically, not in his hometown of Las Vegas). Most importantly, this trait has played out regularly at Kentucky. Despite his 2017 DNF due to engine troubles, he cranked out three Top 10 finishes in five races behind the wheel of the #41 Stewart-Haas cars. And Kurt’s jump to the Chip Ganassi Camaro last year didn’t hurt either. He was fast in qualifying for last year’s Quaker State 400, won Stage 1, then showed his brother who belongs in the top bunk by edging him out at the finish line. I have a high degree of confidence that Kentucky is a spot where Kurt can make a push forward in this season’s standings.
Turnaround Spot for MTJ?
Our buddy Paul @NASCARStyleOdds affectionately calls Martin Truex, Jr., “Mile and a Half Martin”. It may be a tongue-in-cheek nickname, but there’s a good reason for it. MTJ is in – or perhaps on the way out of – his golden years on these 1.5-mile intermediate tracks. Atlanta, Charlotte, Kansas, Kentucky, Las Vegas, Texas, and even Homestead’s true oval have been ripe for Martin’s pickin’ in recent years. Here’s some highlights at these venues:
- Atlanta – Top 10s in eight of the last nine races, including three straight Top 5s between 2017-19.
- Charlotte – three wins in six races between 2015-19 plus a pair of Top 10s in 2020.
- Kansas – winner of both 2017 races, runner-up in 2018.
- Homestead (true oval) – won the Cup Championship here in 2017, runner-up in 2018 & 2019.
- Las Vegas – five straight Top 10s between 2017-19, including wins in 2017 & 2019.
- Texas – Top 10s in eight of the last ten finishes.
MTJ’s success on these 1.5-mile tracks was essential in winning the 2017 NASCAR Cup Championship. Of his eight wins that year, six of them came on these seven tracks. I called Truex’s slow start to the season a “red flag” in May’s NASCAR’s Return article. Despite successfully fading him in the comeback race, he made it too close for comfort and proceeded to rattle off four straight Top 10s at Darlington and Charlotte. One looming issue is the loss of crew chief Cole Pearn coming into this season. Pearn had been with Martin dating back to 2015 in his Furniture Row Racing years. We know Joe Gibbs Racing has the resources to field competitive teams, so will his departure continue to weigh down the 2020 season?
Will He Recapture the Magic in Kentucky?
Indianapolis was an unmitigated disaster for the #19 team last week. Mechanical issues shuffled him toward the back of the pack just in time for that ridiculous pit road incident that effectively knocked him out of the race. Truex is still 7th in the season points standings, so he will get a favorable draw for Sunday’s starting position. On the other hand, his team will take a hit with a subpar pit stall selection. Regardless, I think you have to look at this race as a barometer for which way the rest of the 2020 season will trend.
Truex lurked in the shadows at Kentucky Speedway until he spiked back-to-back wins here in 2017 & 2018. Not only did he win those two races, he DOMINATED them. Martin won all four stages and led 326 of 536 laps. Last year’s bid for a Tom Emanski (three in a row) fell quite short after a decent start to the race. It was an odd blip in Truex’s strong summer of 2019, in which he clocked a pair of wins and six more Top 5s during an eleven-race stretch from the Coke 600 to the August Michigan race. The season is still young, but my guess is that Martin Truex, Jr. and the #19 JGR team feels a sense of urgency heading into this weekend’s Quaker State 400.
The BetCrushers Betting Card
Kentucky Speedway’s nature as an intermediate track opens up the field to a broader range of challengers like “Mile and a Half Martin”, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, and Brad Keselowski. The names at the top of the opening odds board should not shock anyone. Although two-time Quaker State 400 winner Kyle Busch may be winless in 2020, he’s looking to avenge last year’s close loss. Truex has made a name for himself at Kentucky, Brad has won here three times, and Hamlin has been dialed in since the season came back. It’s a crowded house at the top.
Then you have Kevin Harvick, who is as hot as they come right now. He’s in prime form to check another track off of his list. After his recent Pocono win, Harvick has yet to win at just two tracks: the Charlotte Roval and Kentucky Speedway. Will another domino fall this weekend? Somebody must think so, because Kevin’s +550 opening price did not last long at all.
Kurt Busch -125 to Top 10
I’ve already made most of my case for Kurt Busch in the race preview. Kentucky is a track where he can regain the consistent Top 10 form that we at the BetCrushers appreciate highly. Kurt delivered in both Charlotte races this season, extending his run of Top 10s there to eight of the last ten contests. Two weeks later, Busch placed 6th at Atlanta for his fifth T10 in a row on that track. Kentucky’s intermediate track presents a great opportunity for the defending Quaker State 400 champ to get hot again this season.
Recognizing that not all books provide Top 10 betting markets, there may be other alternatives to play Kurt closer to race day. I have not seen any matchups involving him, although a superb domestic book like Circa Sports may provide something soon. One Top 5 market posted a price of 3/1 on Busch, but I think that may be a stretch to ask of him in a crowded field capable of clogging up the top ranks. I’ll keep an eye out for advantageous matchups with Kurt, but in the meantime -125 for Busch to Top 10 is a solid way to play him.
A. Almirola -115 vs. W. Byron
My Monday morning notes heaped a lot of praise on Aric Almirola. The scribbles acknowledged how AA has raised the bar each week since Homestead. His breakout performance in Miami was a cue for us to back him in the intense GEICO 500 at Talladega the following week. Almirola rewarded that support and has not finished outside of the Top 5 since. Indy marks five straight races, and my key concern before the odds dropped was that he would be overvalued at Kentucky. At 33/1 to win, there appeared to be hope.
Almirola’s current Top 5 streak is just part of the story. Even before the break in NASCAR action, he put back-to-back 8th place runs together at California and Phoenix. His work at Darlington was noticeably improved, then his woes on the short tracks of Bristol and Martinsville kept him out of the broader narratives. Another thing to consider is how much improvement he’s made since joining the #10 Stewart-Haas team in 2018. Nearly everything points to AA cracking the Top 10 on Sunday, except that he has really only excelled on one intermediate track: Texas.
AA was matched with Clint Bowyer and William Byron at the open. His position as a -135 favorite to Clint was not quite what I was looking for. Bowyer has been good enough at Kentucky Speedway and is poised to threaten the Top 10 as well. That leaves Byron, who we backed last week at Indy. Willy B is having a solid season and I expect him to improve at the 1.5-mile tri-oval on Sunday. However, both guys are improving and Aric is already one step ahead of him. Sound familiar? That’s how I felt about Byron over Bowman last week and this shapes up as a similar scenario. I’ll take Aric Almirola who has found himself in a very profitable groove with the #10 Mustang in a pick ’em against William Byron.
M. Kenseth -115 vs. A. Dillon
A Tuesday morning message session with @NASCARStyleOdds produced simultaneous messages as we both happened to be digging into the #42 vs. #3 matchup. My experience working with him says that when we’re both on the same page with a handicap, it’s time to lock it up. Other than Dillon’s 7th place finish at Homestead, it’s been a tough road for him lately. Both he and Matt Kenseth stepped their games up at Pocono and Indy, so credit is due there. When it comes to racing at Kentucky, however, Kenseth has been head and shoulders better by far. Here’s part of the reason why our friend is high on this matchup:
I have already outlined why to fade the older Dillion but why would I be so high on Matt Kenseth in this spot? Well here is why. Matt Kenseth took over the 42 car during the Coronacation. Prior to that, Kenseth had eight career races here with an average finish of 8.38 including that run in the 6 car in 2018. Matt is coming off his best finish of the year at the brickyard of second. Finally, that 42 car has an average finish here in the last three of five with three top tens. How can I not go with Matt Kenseth here in a 3 unit wager?
The Bluegrass Battle – playingtheoddsnascarstyle.com, July 7, 2020
It’s hard not to give the 48-year old Matt Kenseth props for his comeback at Darlington. It’s been tough sledding for him since that race, though I was very impressed with his work at Pocono and Indianapolis. In hind sight, Kenseth’s runner-up at Indy last weekend made a ton of sense given his strong track record there in the years leading up to his retirement. The bottom line for me is that this weekend paints a very similar picture – affinity for this particular track, good form coming in, and a team that has fielded a Top 10 ride here the last few years. Give me the grizzled veteran Matt Kenseth to finish ahead of Austin Dillon for the fourth straight race.
It’s Bigger in Texas
Bristol Motor Speedway hosts the NASCAR All-Star Race on Wednesday before next weekend’s 500 mile Cup race at Texas. We won’t have a handicap for the All-Star Race, but you better believe we’ll be ready to roll in the Lone Star State. Stay connected with us on Twitter and be sure to visit our NASCAR page early in the week to catch our plays before the handicap is published. Subscribe below for email alerts delivered straight to your inbox when new articles drop:
