A dramatic changing of the AL East guard was punctuated by Boston trading Mookie Betts to the Dodgers. While the Red Sox sunk to the depths of the division, Tampa Bay rose to the top with stingy pitching and defense. The Rays’ grindy approach to the modern game earned them the American League Pennant and their shot at a World Championship. Somewhere in between those extremes fell the upstart Blue Jays and sleepy Orioles who sharply exceeded expectations. And a resilient Yankees club squeezed into the playoffs despite another season of significant injuries. Does this tumult within the division offer betting opportunities in the 2021 AL East futures markets?
2020 Division Winner: Tampa Bay Rays (AL Pennant Winner)
2020 AL East Standings
- Tampa Bay Rays (40-20)
- New York Yankees (33-27)
- Toronto Blue Jays (32-28)
- Baltimore Orioles (25-35)
- Boston Red Sox (24-36)
Tampa Bay Rays 2021 Win Total: Open 85.5, Now 85.5
2020 Result: Over 34 (40-20)
Tampa Bay was second to just one team in terms of their 40-win season. Only the World Series Champion L.A. Dodgers won more games in 2020. The Rays rolled through the AL East, scratched their way through the playoffs, and battled in six tough games of the Fall Classic. They did it with one of the best bullpens in the majors, an excellent defense, and a solid lineup. 2019 MLB Executive of the Year Erik Neander’s bargain basement payroll – one that lagged the Yankees by $80ish million – fell just short of claiming baseball’s ultimate title. Admittedly, my 30-34 win outlook for the Rays was way too low. Tampa Bay’s pennant-winning season was buoyed by outpacing their pythagorean win mark by 4 games, as evidenced by a stellar 14-5 record in one-run games.
There are several ways to be “clutch” in close games, though a dependable bullpen is almost always a prerequisite. Tampa Bay’s relief unit delivered one of the best ERA/FIP combos (3.37/3.65) by suppressing home runs and walks at rates second only to the Dodgers. Manager Kevin Cash’s prior experience as Cleveland’s bullpen coach shined in the sprint to the playoffs. Cash passed around the closer position between Nick Anderson, Diego Castillo, and a long list of relievers. Case in point, Anderson and Castillo registered just 10 of the team’s 23 saves and 5 of the bullpen’s 25 wins. The Rays pushed all the right buttons and the players delivered on cue.
Seamless Transitions
The Rays’ yin and yang relationship between rotation and bullpen was nearly flawless. Kevin Cash successfully exhibited caution by leaning heavily on his relievers. This was shrewd considering his headliners’ recent injuries and the unconventional offseason. For example, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow averaged under 5 innings per start while delivering a 9-3 record and two of the best strikeout rates in the AL. Although Snell, Glasnow, and 24-year old Josh Fleming got lit up with 26 bombs in 133 innings, this group was very effective in suppressing runs. And this success wasn’t completely top loaded either. Fleming, a rookie, and emerging starter Ryan Yarbrough stymied opponents in their 14 starts by limiting walks and keeping runners off of the base paths. Tampa Bay’s club was built to be efficient, and that’s exactly how they won the pennant.
An Opportunistic Lineup
The Rays lineup was a prime example of the “whole being greater than the sum of the parts”. Nearly all of their regulars provided positive contributions in terms of WAR at the plate, in the field, or both. Strengths compensated for any deficiencies, outlasting their opponents in the 60-game sprint. Exhibit A is Kevin Kiermaier, whose .217 average contributed little to the Rays’ 289 runs scored. But in the field, Kiermaier saved 10 runs and graded out as the best defensive center fielder on one of the best defenses in the majors.
Key mid-season adjustments also helped keep Tampa Bay’s title run on track. Where corner outfielders Austin Meadows and Hunter Renfroe left a lot to be desired, former Padre Manuel Margot stepped in to deliver career-best batting and on-base percentages. And right on cue, 25-year old Randy Arozarena parlayed his brief MLB tenure with the Cardinals into a monster fall for the Rays.
In the World Series, Arozarena went 8-for-22 with three homers, five runs and as many walks as strikeouts (four each). In 20 games this postseason, he slashed .377/.442/.831 with 10 homers, 19 runs and 14 RBIs. For a while there, it seemed as though he was rewriting the record books with every swing.
Arozarena’s HR Puts Bow on PS for the Ages – MLB.com – October 28, 2020
Arozarena’s breakout meshed exceptionally well with the emergence of Brandon Lowe. After part-time duty in his first two seasons, the Rays second baseman seized his opportunity with both hands. Lowe blasted 14 homers during the regular season and drove in 37 runs with a monster .285 ISO. And when the dust settled on the regular season, Cash’s crew buoyed a sub-par batting average with 48 stolen bases and 243 walks to claim the 2020 AL pennant.
BetCrushers 2021 Win Projection Range: 82 – 86
Well, you have to give Neander and the Rays front office their due. What other franchise has repeatedly done more with less – at least in terms of payroll? Promptly after winning their second American League pennant, Tampa Bay stripped down the rotation and reloaded for 2021. By sticking to their plan, the Rays reduced payroll and loaded up on the next wave of talent. Sure, the pipeline is in great shape but what’s the verdict on this season? A down year or business as usual?
Rotation
The Rays made their own waves early this offseason, trading former American League Cy Young winner Blake Snell to San Diego for 21-year old starting pitcher Luis Patino, catcher Francisco Mejia, and two more prospects. Snell is a huge arm to lose, though the Rays farm system is impressively deep and constructed brilliantly to keep feeding the big league club over the next few years. But the Snell trade took place shortly after Charlie Morton was non-tendered, leaving many to wonder how these big holes would be filled.
In part, that’s where Chris Archer comes in. Or, should I say, comes back. The former Tampa Bay starter returns after a brutal 2-1/2 years in Pittsburgh where he truly struggled. The Pirates’ pitching philosophy did not align well with Archer and he missed last season dealing with thoracic outlet syndrome. Even though Archer is reasonably expected to log about 25 starts this season, the Rays’ great defense should help stretch out his starts past the fifth inning. Plus, Chris does not need to be a strikeout machine as long as his home run numbers fall back in line.
Reassembling a Starting Five
Ironically, Archer joins the main asset that he was traded to Pittsburgh for – staff ace Tyler Glasnow. The towering 27-year-old starter has developed into a strikeout machine and is poised to top 3 WAR this season. Although his pitch velocities were steady in 2020, Glasnow got hit harder than in previous seasons. Product of a small sample size? Perhaps, although I see a consistent level of confidence in him regaining his ground ball contact to couple with a scary strikeout rate.
Glasnow and fourth year Tampa Bay pitcher Ryan Yarbrough are essentially the only carryovers from the 2020 rotation. Yarbrough made his mark by being a dependable opener with a strong 3.52 K/BB ratio and aversion to yielding the long ball. The one issue that I see is a steady loss in pitch velocity since his 2018 MLB debut. Conversely, Yarbrough’s hard hit rate has been decreasing too. What about the other three starting spots though?
With roster sizes being trimmed back to 26 and a somewhat more typical offseason hopefully leading to fewer injuries, I would guess that the average starter workload will go up for the first time in seven years. The Rays, however, appear to be heading for a season of pitching management even more extreme than what they had in 2018, after signing two pitchers over the holiday weekend: 40-year-old lefty Rich Hill and 33-year-old right-hander Collin McHugh, each at one year apiece, with the former set to make $2.5 million and the latter $1.8 million.
The Rays Finally Have a Full Rotation, At Least For Now – Tony Wolfe, FanGraphs.com – February 16, 2021
Relying upon Rich Hill, Michael Wacha, and opener/long reliever Collin McHugh to round things out is pretty dicey. Hill is by no means an innings-eater but the Rays bullpen is positioned well to back up plenty of short starts. Likewise, Wacha made it past the fifth inning in just 9 of 31 starts since 2019. Although that’s just as much a product of his recent struggles than it is workload management. But here’s the deal – Tampa Bay doesn’t need to rely on a dominant rotation to be good. They have a great defense and excellent bullpen to support these five guys and their unconventional roles. Plus top prospect Luis Patino should get some action in both starting and relief capacities. Look for another league-average season from this quality bargain basement unit in transition.
Bullpen
Manager Kevin Cash is a big proponent of the closer-by-committee approach. And it appears to be the case again this season after five players picked up at least 2 saves in 2020. The Nick Anderson, Pete Fairbanks, and Diego Castillo trio should get the final inning work after their combined 68 relief appearances last year. Castillo took a couple steps backwards in the shortened season, though the Rays expect Diego to return to his prime 2019 form and create a 3+ WAR high-leverage committee of righties. Pete Fairbanks had a monster 4.72 K/BB, 3.04 FIP season behind a sharp fastball/slider combo alongside Nick Anderson’s deceptive 8.67 K/BB, 1.35 FIP year. The deception comes in the form of a .143 BABIP in just 16.1 innings pitched. Not to worry though, as these guys are rock solid mid-3.00s FIP relievers that give Cash plenty of late inning options.
This bullpen should be one of the league’s best yet again and will do so in nondescript fashion. Veteran Collin McHugh gives the Rays flexibility in long relief and can support the new-look rotation in a swingman role. If anything, he should be refreshed after opting out in 2020 and fully recovering from an elbow injury. Tampa Bay’s middle relief is stocked full of talent like righty Ryan Thompson who just made his promising rookie debut. And don’t overlook 34-year-old journeyman Chaz Roe who has been great for the Rays since landing here. He unleashed an impressive cutter last year in limited work and sets up again as a sub-4.00 FIP reliever if that pitch proves to be legit.
But the bullpen cog that interests me the most is former Cincinnati reliever Cody Reed. The 27-year-old lefty’s career was heading in the right direction until an MCL sprain halted his progression in 2019. Then Reed started last season with a few rough outings before finishing the year strong with the Reds and Rays. Hell, the guy finished the regular season with seven straight appearances without giving up a single run. Cash and company believe they can harness Cody’s talent and get another solid season out of him like 2018. Barring injury, Reed has sub-4.00 FIP ability if he limits the long ball in pitcher-friendly Tropicana Field.
Position Players
One burning question throughout the offseason has been what to expect from Randy Arozarena after his postseason explosion. Point blank, there’s plenty to like based solely on his 23 regular season games. Randy has 20+ homer power, slugs in the high-.400s, and is a legitimate stolen base threat. The guy is a prototypical corner outfielder with good enough fielding skills to make him a no-doubt full time player. And he’s positioned next to one of the best defensive center fielders in the game, Kevin Kiermaier. Both Kiermaier and right fielder Manuel Margot provide great value in the field as opposed to at the plate, but the combination of the three form an average run-producing outfield that fits the Tampa Bay gameplan quite well.
Another key consideration is how to get 20-year-old shortstop Wander Franco into the mix. Similar to fellow top pitching prospect Luis Patino, Franco is ripe for promotion to the big league club this season. But considering that he has yet to play above the high-A level, my expectations for him this season are modest. That’s just fine though, because this team is preparing to strike again in 2022 – and their current roster is good enough to be competitive in 2021. This transition season gives Kevin Cash and Erik Neander time to evaluate guys like catcher Francisco Mejia on the fly. Does he have what it takes to remain at the catcher position, or will he eventually get shuffled to the outfield?
This Rays lineup has strong defensive roots with fielders like shortstop Willy Adames and third baseman Joey Wendle. Sure, they sacrifice offensive production but are great allies to Tampa Bay’s pitching staff. The roster’s success at the plate relies heavily on Kevin Cash pulling the right strings to platoon guys like Austin Meadows, Ji-Man Choi, and Yandy Diaz. So I’ve come to a simple realization with this lineup – don’t overestimate or underestimate their offense. They will grind out enough production to position the team for another winning season. Just look out in 2022 when the Rays’ talented prospects take over!
New York Yankees 2021 Win Total: Open 95.5, Now 95.5
2020 Result: Under 37.5 (33-27)
The New York Yankees showed incredible resilience in their injury-filled, 103-win 2019 campaign. Lofty expectations surrounded this club yet again as prized free agent Gerrit Cole assumed the role of the Bronx ace. The Cole pickup balanced the offseason loss of dominant righty Luis Severino to injury, just months after a painful 2019 in which he made just three starts. Even without Severino, the Yanks’ starters persevered under the leadership of their new ace. Masahiro Tanaka and Deivi Garcia helped the rotation achieve top 10 status in key metrics like WHIP, FIP, and strikeouts. But the long ball proved to be the elephant in the room, as the starters yielded 51 home runs at a dangerous rate of 1.55 HR/9.
New York’s position players were not immune to this good news/bad news conundrum. Injuries held power hitting stalwarts Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton to just 105 regular-season plate appearances. In their limited work, the tandem still managed to smash 13 homers. That’s an average of 1 bomb for every 8 PAs! And they weren’t the only Yanks on a heater. Luke Voit’s MLB-leading 22 homers outnumbered – and significantly outpaced – his 21 long balls across 118 games in 2019. But the guy who truly made this lineup hum was AL Batting Champ DJ LeMahieu. Their star second baseman built on his impressive Yankees debut with a gaudy .364/.421/.590 slash line and career-best 9.7% strikeout rate and .226 ISO.
New York Yankees Relief Pitching, 2015-2020
| 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIP | 4.52 | 4.15 | 3.33 | 3.80 | 3.83 | 3.84 |
| K/9 | 9.34 | 10.16 | 11.40 | 10.92 | 10.15 | 10.11 |
| BB/9 | 4.08 | 3.62 | 3.44 | 3.76 | 3.23 | 3.83 |
| HR/9 | 1.40 | 1.30 | 1.01 | 0.85 | 1.18 | 1.05 |
| WHIP | 1.34 | 1.32 | 1.21 | 1.16 | 1.19 | 1.29 |
Like their front-end counterparts, the Yankees’ typically-formidable bullpen was not immune to getting shelled. Don’t get me wrong, they weren’t Philadelphia bad. Nonetheless, this unit finished as a below average unit in several categories. Nearly every key metric punctuates a gradual decline of the New York bullpen in recent years, although Aroldis Chapman’s 30-game suspension contributed heavily to last season’s drop-off. Fortunately, Zack Britton picked up 8 saves in his absence.
The bullpen’s lack of sharpness was just one piece of the puzzle. After all, New York’s starting pitchers served up the long ball too frequently, and the lineup’s dangerous duo of Judge and Stanton were sorely missed. Resilience and a glut of talent pushed this club into the playoffs despite critical injuries and opponents’ success at the plate. But simply making the postseason is not an acceptable outcome in the Bronx – especially with their massive payroll. And stirring the pot is the fact that “the Yankees still have not reached the World Series with their current core“. Is getting healthy the cure for what ails them, or are bigger changes needed?
BetCrushers 2021 Win Projection Range: 98 – 103
If the least bit healthy, the Yankees should contend for a playoff berth in the top-heavy 2021 AL East. Of course I’m typing this just days after Zack Britton had minor surgery to remove a bone chip from his elbow. Outside of Britton and the recovering Luis Severino, this team looks healthy and very strong. Plus, the Yankees had a good offseason that featured a critical re-up with All-Star second baseman DJ LeMahieu. And longtime general manager Brian Cashman added good depth behind ace Gerrit Cole with Corey Kluber and Jameson Taillon. The move for Taillon didn’t leave much left in their near-term prospect pipeline, so what you see is what you get with this roster.
Rotation
The Yankees rolled the dice on a one-year, $11M deal with two time Cy Young award winner Corey Kluber. After his super brief tenure with Texas, the former Indians ace gives this rotation somewhat of a lottery ticket. For the time being, he’ll fill the big hole that Luis Severino left when he was lost to Tommy John surgery last winter. Despite his general decline and recent injury, Kluber could be a bust or a saving grace for the Yankees. Still, the 34-year-old righty could contribute a 2+ WAR season if he stays healthy and his cutter/curve combo is on point.
Cashman extended his search for more pitchers by trading for Cole’s former compatriot in the Pirates system, Jameson Taillon. Taillon is an interesting story of immense talent and repeated setbacks. How this story plays out is a big unknown, though we do know this kid is a fighter. Two Tommy John surgeries, a sports hernia, and testicular cancer put Jameson on the shelf at various stages of his career, reducing him from a 3+ WAR arm to somewhere in the 2 WAR neighborhood. This kid has upside, though I don’t know if you can confidently count on it to fully manifest this season.
And in case you forgot, signs point toward Luis Severino’s mid-summer return to the mound. There’s a growing sentiment that New York’s headliners of Cole, Severino, Kluber, and Taillon could be the best rotation in the AL. But without Cole, this rotation could be borderline pedestrian. It’s not because there is a lack of talent and/or experience. Their recent injuries are the real threat to this crew performing at their peak. Fortunately, this club has some strong assets waiting in the wings in Deivi Garcia and Domingo German. Assuming they don’t get devastated by injuries again, the 2021 Yankees rotation should be a couple ticks better than last year.
Bullpen
Even though the Yankees bullpen underproduced last year, there is great value in its core still being in tact. Six-time All-Star Aroldis Chapman should be well-rested and ready to get back to his usual dominant self. Both he and setup man Chad Green need to be sharp if this unit is going to return to top-three form though. Green skated by last year with a .145 BABIP despite yielding 5 homers in 25.2 innings, though both of those extremes should moderate back to form a 3+ WAR tandem with Chapman.
One man that New York was not interested in having around this season was Adam Ottavino. You could tell that Aaron Boone lost confidence in Ottavino as the short season progressed, marking his trade to Boston for a PTBNL as not just a salary dump but one that opens the door for new blood. For example, journeyman reliever Justin Wilson brings his career 3.34 FIP to the Bronx after spending the past two seasons in Queens. He’s another high-leverage lefty who adds depth and can cover for Zack Britton while he’s on the shelf. Plus the bullpen’s middle relief gets buffed by Darren O’Day. Even though the 38-year-old’s outlook is tempered, O’Day is in good company with guys like Jonathan Loaisiga and Luis Cessa. This bullpen has both front line firepower and significant depth to return to dominance with.
Position Players
As spectacular as New York’s pitching staff is, this lineup is should leave you shaking your head. It contains four bona fide 30+ home run hitters and a career .305 hitter leading off. That’s the re-signed DJ LeMahieu, who has absolutely crushed it since joining the club. Odds are, he won’t be repeating last season’s 176 wRC+ but something more like his 135 wRC+ Yankees debut is not out of the question. LeMahieu also leads this infield with very good defense – much like Gio Urshela at third base. The downside, however, is that shortstop Gleyber Torres and catcher Gary Sanchez are less than optimal at their positions. But both Torres and Sanchez can make up for it as a 50-homer duo, although Gleyber is a much more talented .275/.350/.500-type of hitter.
New York’s defense has been fairly nondescript in recent years, which is impressive considering just how good their hitting is. Aaron Hicks is a perfect example – not the most dynamic center fielder, but a 120 wRC+ hitter with 3 WAR talent. Corner outfielder Clint Frazier is very similar to Hicks though he’s even less of a fit in center. Ironically, the towering 6’7″ giant Aaron Judge shines as the defensive gem of the Yankees outfield. The Judge has a cannon on him and fields the tricky corner very well at Yankee Stadium.
It’s All About the Long Ball
The Yankees have finished top five in home runs four years running. And that should be no surprise when Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton have been in the lineup much of that time. What’s even more astounding is that these sluggers have struggled to consistently stay off of the IL. This year, however, they are healthy and 35 HR/130 wRC+ is a reasonable floor for each guy. Add in 30 more homers from Gleyber Torres and another 30 from first baseman Luke Voit. Now we’re talking about a four pack of big hitters that should rack up 130 home runs and contribute close to 15 WAR. Sure, they’re high-strikeout guys but they more than make up for it when healthy – especially if you’re buying into a Torres bounceback season. I know I am. And New York is poised for another monster offensive season if he does.
Toronto Blue Jays 2021 Win Total: Open 86.5, Now 86.5
2020 Win Total: Over 27.5 (32-28)
Not only did the “Baby Jays” top their modest win total, they gave perennial AL East powerhouse New York a run for their money – with about $60M less in payroll, mind you. But Toronto’s playoff run ended abruptly at the hands of division foe and AL Pennant winner Tampa Bay in the Wild Card round. Still, Jaysjournal.com argued that “It’s okay that the Toronto Blue Jays lost in the playoffs“. The MLB’s youngest team took a huge step forward in an awkward season full of double headers, COVID scares, and their Canadian lockout. Thank heavens for Buffalo.
A highly-experienced rotation full of new faces provided some balance to this young Blue Jays team. Hyun Jin Ryu replaced former ace Marcus Stroman, furthering the success that he had in Korea and Los Angeles. Outside of Ryu and Taijuan Walker, however, Chase Anderson, Tanner Roark, and a rotating cast struggled with walks and home runs. Giving up the long ball was less of an issue for this decent bullpen, though walks really haunted them. Unfortunately, they lacked the punch that injured closer Ken Giles typically gave them. Eight Toronto relievers blew at least one save for a total of eleven, which was fifth-highest in the MLB. Their lack of reliability – a fundamental characteristic of consistent late-game success – must be reversed if this club wants to continue its progression in the 2021 AL East.
The Bats to the Rescue
While the Jays’ pitching left a lot to be desired, their offense was good enough to keep the club headed in the right direction. Our 2020 division preview looked at both sides of Toronto’s youth movement and anticipated an overall step forward from this group:
Despite high expectations, Toronto fans and backers will need to be patient with this young lineup. Only first baseman Travis Shaw and center fielder Randal Grichuk have more than two years of major league service among position players. You can’t realistically expect Bo Bichette to repeat his breakout debut over the course of a full season, but Vlad could pick up some of that slack. And what about DH Teoscar Hernandez’ and his big 2019 second half? These may not all deliver, but together should prove a net positive in the form of incremental improvement.
2020 MLB Season Win Totals: AL East – BetCrushers.com – March 5, 2020
Toronto Blue Jays Offense, 2017-2020
| 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SLG | .441 | .428 | .427 | .412 |
| wRC+ | 108 | 92 | 101 | 93 |
| K% | 22.4% | 24.9% | 22.8% | 21.6% |
Toronto’s gains at the plate were slightly tempered by another lackluster season in the field. Their defense has slowly declined since the 2016 season, in part due to Randal Grichuk’s subpar performance in the critical center field position. Still, manager Charlie Montoya consciously sacrificed Grichuk’s fielding for hitting. And it proved to be a shrewd move as the veteran responded with a career-low strikeout rate and a productive .273/.312/.481 slash line.
Grichuk thrived along with Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel, Jr., who also had banner years at the plate. Plus second-generation major leaguers Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio added fuel to the to the Jays’ fire. The collective effort from Toronto’s budding stars generated increased slugging and run production without an excess of strikeouts. But wait, there’s more! This entire lineup returns in 2021 to take a bigger bite out of the division.
BetCrushers 2021 Win Projection Range: 92 – 96
The Toronto front office swung and missed a few times this offseason, most notably the pump fake from Michael Brantley. But the dynamic duo of president Mark Shapiro and GM Ross Atkins stayed the course in supplementing their promising roster. Toronto’s biggest coup of the offseason was inking Houston’s center fielder George Springer to a six-year deal. Within a week, they inked another proven veteran in shortstop Marcus Semien. Aside from the Padres and Mets, the Blue Jays were one of the most active clubs in the offseason. But was it productive enough to climb to the top of the AL East?
Position Players
31-year-old George Springer is a battle-tested bona fide lead off hitter who is also a complete center fielder. The $150M contract incorporates the north-of-the-border premium, but still, this is a big number for this team to absorb. Then again, there weren’t a lot of 4 WAR free agents available and the Blue Jays desperately needed that guy to get over the hump. Toronto gets a perennially-strong hitter who just slashed .265/.359/.540 with 14 homers and 37 runs. He’ll set the table nicely for a talented young lineup that is hungry for RBIs.
Despite all the talent on this young roster, Toronto’s infield was missing a key component. The Jays lost out on the Francisco Lindor sweepstakes but rebounded nicely with free agent Marcus Semien. The former Oakland shortstop is anticipated to slide over to second base, thus moving Biggio over to third so that Vlad Jr. isn’t booting balls around at the hot corner. Although Vlad slimmed down over the winter and could be a more versatile fielder if called upon. Semien’s defense has improved immensely over the last few seasons and his bat is just fine despite having a down 2020. And there is something to be said about bringing on a talented veteran who is in the cliched contract year – it’s bounce back or bust!
These established veterans join a young core of impact players that look to pick up where they left off in 2020. Bo Bichette’s balanced attack of speed, power, contact, and fielding could propel him above the 4 WAR mark this season. Vlad is expected to post a career-best slash line, while outfielders Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel, Jr. should blast a combined 60+ home runs. Despite some legitimate concerns with Cavan Biggio’s transition to third base (-2 DRS there in 2020), Toronto’s defense is poised to improve on their dreadful performance last season – especially with catcher Danny Jansen’s growth behind the plate.
The Center Fielder Situation
Ironically, the only two Toronto players aged 30 or older are the newest members of the club – Springer and Semien. Randal Grichuk turns 30 this summer, but between these two outfielders Springer is the one that truly has the skills to patrol center field. The Jays outfield instantly shifts from a defensive liability to a decent group. The comparison of defensive runs saved below gives you a picture how George Spring grew his proficiency at the center fielder position, as opposed to Randal being squeezed into it.
Springer vs. Grichuk Defensive Runs Saved at CF, 2018-2020 (*unadjusted 60-game schedule)
| 2020* | 2019 | 2018 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Springer DRS (CF only) | 3 (6) | 12 (7) | -3 (-5) |
| Springer % in CF | 86.4% | 59.1% | 52.6% |
| Grichuk DRS (CF only) | -8 (-8) | -7 (2) | 1 (-2) |
| Grichuk % in CF | 100.0% | 40.2% | 21.8% |
The effects of replacing two out-of-position players – Grichuk in center, Guerrero at third – with suitable fielders should cut Toronto’s defensive liability in half. Don’t get me wrong, this may still be a below average fielding club but it will be noticeably improved. Couple that with a bump in offensive production, and the jump from a .500 team to one that tops 90 wins does not seem that unreasonable.
Rotation
Admittedly, I may be too bullish on this rotation. Hyun Jin Ryu was absolutely fantastic and should deliver a strong 3+ WAR season in year two with the Jays. But things get a bit murkier from there. Robbie Ray must rebound from a rough 6+ FIP season in which his walk rate ballooned and ground ball rate plummeted. And veteran righty Tanner Roark essentially suffered the same fate. He, too, should get back on track for a modest year – which is about all Toronto needs out of Roark. The pivot piece for their rotation is top prospect Nate Pearson, who struggled mightily in his MLB debut. Just don’t sleep on the big flamethrower and his progression toward being a sub-5.00 FIP guy in his sophomore season. And if Pearson isn’t ready for the season opener, this team has a very good replacement in Ross Stripling.
The Blue Jays needed at least one more key cog to gain more respectability as an American League pennant contender. Does trading prospects for Steven Matz qualify as a big lift to the rotation? The harsh reality is that the former Mets lefty gave up enough home runs last year (37.8% HR/FB rate) to lose his spot in a banged up rotation. However, Matz showed us enough in previous years to support a 1+ WAR projection as the Jays #5 pitcher. He’s always been susceptible to coughing up the long ball, though his excellent ground ball rate via the sinker helps mitigate the damage. As a betting man, I look for a notable jump in production from the Toronto rotation.
Bullpen
When it comes to needing a boost for their middling bullpen, Shapiro and Atkins rolled the dice with former Padres closer Kirby Yates. In the absence of Kenny Giles, Yates gets a second chance to finish off games after a short and ugly 2020 season. I don’t doubt that Kirby’s best seasons are behind him, though he should be a noticeable improvement to the Jays bullpen if his deadly splitter comes along with him. Maybe just as important is the fact that this inexperienced relief unit gets a successful veteran to handle the closer spot.
Toronto also has a pair of overlooked setup men in Rafael Dolis and Jordan Romano. Dolis was great after returning from Japan last season and is expected to be solid in 2021. Same goes for Romano, who rebounded nicely after an ugly 2019 rookie season where walks and home runs plagued him. Additionally, Toronto picked up Tyler Chatwood as an affordable and experienced middle relief option. The former starting pitcher could also be valuable for spot starts in case their reclamation projects don’t come through. All told, the Blue Jays relief unit should bump up from average to above average this year.
WAGER: Over 86.5 Wins (bet 2/18/21)
I’m not ashamed to admit to hopping on the Jays band wagon since I’m backing it with my cash. After framing my overall opinion on this upstart team, my biggest concern was overestimating their rotation. Their lineup is slightly improved, defense is much better with an actual center fielder, and bullpen a notch tighter. But Toronto’s starting five caused me to re-evaluate how a downside expectation could sink their season. And while that is a possibility, I’ll back a decent season from this pitching staff with my money. Dunedin, Buffalo, Toronto – wherever they call home in 2021, let’s go Blue Jays!
Baltimore Orioles 2021 Win Total: Open 64.5, Now 64.5
2020 Result: Over 20.5 (25-35)
Step #1 in turning around the Baltimore Orioles franchise: drag yourself out of the AL East cellar. They barely checked that one off the list, as the O’s flirted with a fourth straight season at the bottom of the division. Ironically, this team was still in contention for a wild card berth with two weeks to go. Then the wheels came off. As with other clubs undergoing deep roster rebuilds, 2020 threw a monkey wrench in the gears of developing Baltimore’s farm system. Despite this impediment, local writers praised second year manager Brandon Hyde for overachieving with a transitioning roster.
Baltimore surpassed their season win total in mid-September on the heels of a strong 12-8 start. Average production on both offense and defense was actually a step in the right direction. Notwithstanding Renato Nunez’ big year at the plate, a ton of credit is due to outfielder Anthony Santander. The 25-year old switch hitter slugged .575 with 11 homers before exiting in early September with a shoulder injury. In the field, Santander’s 8 runs saved helped Baltimore grade out much better defensively than without him. Rookie Ryan Mountcastle patrolled the other corner of the outfield after his late August call-up, hitting .333/.386/.492 in his first 140 MLB plate appearances. These two gave the Orioles a big shot in the arm – a surge that this club hopes to sustain for years to come.
A Complicated Relationship
The O’s pitching staff struggled with an internal give-and-take relationship. Unfortunately, it was the sort of thing where the starters gave the lead away and the relievers put in work to regain control of the mound. Baltimore’s overused bullpen responded in impressive fashion, indirectly accounting for year-over-year gains in the win column. Despite logging over 250 innings, the bullpen managed to finish the season with an impressive 4.11 FIP and 1.27 WHIP.
A good bullpen is built to withstand plenty of high-leverage situations, but Baltimore’s rotation pushed the limit on this expectation. The O’s starters yielded an American League fifth-worst 1.79 HR/9, nearly twice the rate of the bullpen. This inevitably contributed to a miserable 5.06 FIP. Asher Wojciechowski, Tom Eshelman, and Wade Leblanc did a lot of damage by coughing up 18 homers in just 68.1 innings. But the bigger letdown had to be second year starter John Means’ 12 homers in 43.2 innings. It’s not all negativity in Baltimore though. Their evolving rotation had a breakthrough with their 25-year old prospect Keegan Akin. The young lefty was impressive in 6 starts, finishing the season with 34 Ks and a 3.27 FIP. Assuming that Means cuts back on home runs, these two could prove to be bright spots on the mound in 2021.
BetCrushers 2021 Win Projection Range: 58 – 62
Based on the above win total projection range and unit trends, I’m expecting a fair amount of regression from the Orioles. But the painful Chris Davis days may be just about over as Baltimore’s crop of homegrown talent is emerging. Young players like Ryan Mountcastle and Austin Hays made their mark and give this team some optimism for the future. And there’s nothing like the massive uplift that Trey Mancini’s return from battling colon cancer gives the O’s – both in the clubhouse and on the field.
Position Players
Baltimore enters the 2021 season with significant changes to their infield. Shortstop Jose Iglesias was shipped to the Angels for prospects to fuel the rebuild, leaving behind a big hole from his 162 wRC+. Granted, Iglesias’ gaudy numbers weren’t going to be repeated – especially being coupled with a .407 BABIP. So veteran Freddie Galvis comes in with his lifetime 79 wRC+ as a stopgap effort. Iglesias’ middle infield partner Hanser Alberto was not brought back either after a couple impressive seasons with the O’s. That forces Yolmer Sanchez and Pat Valaika into more prominent roles, which is good for defense but less than optimal at the plate.
All is not lost on this offense, though. Trey Mancini’s return picks up some slack after mashing 83 home runs in the 2017-2019 seasons. He has a .270, 20+ home run bat that should prove critical if Ryan Mountcastle and Anthony Santander regress from their 141 and 132 wRC+ seasons, respectively. Santander has effectively locked down his spot in right field as a good defender with plenty of power. However, Mountcastle’s .398 BABIP signals a bigger drop-off yet he’s better than Baltimore’s other alternatives after Renato Nunez left in free agency. The club’s defense should still be decent, though the lineup is primed for a big step back this season.
Rotation
Aside from the fifth slot of the rotation, Baltimore’s young starters are in line for another season of on-the-job training. John Means and Jorge Lopez have a couple years in the big leagues, but Keegan Akin and Dean Kremer lack significant experience. In fact, Means’ 37 MLB starts leads this unit unless 34-year-old Mariners legend Felix Hernandez makes the roster. So the Orioles faithful will need to be very patient with a rotation full of guys whose 2021 ceilings should be high-4.00s FIPs.
But let’s be honest here – this rotation is likely to be mixed and matched as the season goes on. Mid-tier prospects Michael Baumann and Zac Lowther are waiting for their call-ups from Norfolk. Plus castoff veterans Matt Harvey and Wade LeBlanc are waiting for their second- or third-chances to get back into the majors. But no matter how manager Brandon Hyde stacks the deck, the result is likely one of the worst rotations out there. I attribute about 3 fewer wins from this unit alone.
Bullpen
As opposed to Tampa Bay’s use of the closer-by-committee out of efficiency, Baltimore turns to this approach simply because they lack a lockdown reliever or two. Cole Sulser lost the job last season after converting just 8 of 13 save attempts. Now the O’s turn to guys like Tanner Scott and Cesar Valdez to handle their late inning work. Hyde may actually be eyeing Valdez as a fifth starter candidate, adding more credence to spreading out the closer role. But reality may be harsh for these two, especially if Scott continues to struggle with walks.
I’m not completely calling for a doom and gloom season for Baltimore’s bullpen though. They lack depth and will likely turn to a couple of Rule 5 guys. Plus the bullpen could be plucked for spot starters, further diminishing its effectiveness. This leaves Travis Lakens, Sr. and Dillon Tate – a pair of high-4.00 FIP relievers – to more high-leverage duty. Their impacts are tough to gauge even though Lakens and Tate have looked decent in middle relief. But in my eyes, 28-year-old Paul Fry could end up as one of the Orioles’ most valuable relievers. He’s a 4.00 FIP lefty with a nice fastball/slider pairing that generates plenty of ground ball contact. But expect plenty of rough days alongside the good ones with this much inexperience throughout the bullpen.
Boston Red Sox 2021 Win Total: Open 80.5, Now 80.5
2020 Result: Under 31.5 (24-36)
Year one without Mookie: Not good. Not good at all. Injuries and disappointing individual performances submarined the MLB’s third-highest payroll to the depths of the AL East. The Boston Red Sox were World Champions in 2018, missed the playoffs in 2019, then stumbled out to a 6-18 start in 2020. Last year’s difficulties were compounded by division foes who won 26 of the 40 games against them. And when the going got tough, this club fell short more often that not. Boston was 4-9 in one-run affairs and failed to win any of their four extra-inning games.
Run production was hardly the team’s problem. Boston scored the fifth most runs in the AL (292), despite modest results from designated hitter JD Martinez. JD turned in his least-productive season since 2013: .213/.291/.389 and 77 wRC+. His numbers were hampered by a downtick in exit velocity and hard hit rate, common signs of a downtrend for a slugger in his mid-30s. To the rescue came the left side of Boston’s infield, Rafael Devers and Xander Bogaerts. The pair combined to smash 22 home runs and drive in 71, with Bogaerts rising to the top with a .300/.364/.502 season. Boston had the bats to consistently manufacture runs, especially with leadoff man Alex Verdugo setting the table.
Playing From Behind
Boston’s failures point back to the AL-worst 351 runs scored against them. The Red Sox pitching staff crippled their team’s chances with way too many walks and home runs – an explosive formula that required much more run support than the offense could muster. Granted, anchors of the rotation Chris Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez were lost to injury before the season even started. Parting with Mookie and losing two top arms was a disastrous recipe for the BoSox reboot.
Last year was one step forward and several steps back for the Boston pitching staff. For each good Nathan Eovaldi start, this club had too many duds from guys like Mazza, Brewer, Weber, and Godley. And the bullpen seemed to imitate the starters as well, starting with closer Matt Barnes’ rough year. Barnes yielded the highest average exit velocity of his career on top of an excessive number of walks and home runs. For most of the season, hardly any of the Sox pitchers could be counted on to keep things in check. Our friends @Wager_Rager were spot on about this club falling on very hard times last season and profited from it quite nicely. As for the Red Sox faithful, however, that train wreck of a season could not come soon enough.
BetCrushers 2021 Win Projection Range: 80 – 84
The Boston front office was quite active in the offseason, even if it looked like general manager Brian O’Holloran was simply out to reduce payroll. They continued the divestiture of the 2018 World Championship squad as Jackie Bradley, Jr. was let walk, leaving just a handful of that former nucleus on the 2021 roster. However, O’Holloran made enough moves to upgrade the bottom of their lineup and boost their ailing bullpen. But the AL East is shark-infested, especially with the Baby Jays on the rise. So will the new blood give this club enough of a bump to stay afloat?
Position Players
The days of a Boston outfield patrolled by the immense talent of Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley, Jr., and Andrew Benintendi are certainly over. Betts is long gone, JBJ is in Milwaukee, and Benintendi was traded to Kansas City for outfielder Franchy Cordero in a three-team trade. Although this is a slight step backwards from an on-field perspective, Cordero’s salary is a fraction of Benintendi’s. Cost cutting in spots like this can work out okay as long as there aren’t many other big holes to plug. Enter outfielder Hunter Renfroe, who is a decent fielder with power. He is realistically a .230 hitter with a high strikeout rate, but Renfroe has 30-HR power and is poised to get back into form after his failed experiment with launch angles in Tampa Bay last season.
Adding the versatile Enrique Hernandez beefs up an infield defense that leaves a lot to be desired. Keke can play just about any position you put him at, but his glaring downside is at the plate. Enrique has occasional power and struggled to keep a batting average north of .250 in all but two seasons. Oddly enough, that’s about what they get by signing Minnesota free agent Marwin Gonzalez. The switch-hitting Gonzalez is a very good, versatile fielder that can legitimately play any position except catcher and center field. Unfortunately, his .250 average and low walk rate won’t move the needle much for Boston’s offense.
When In Doubt, Knock It Out
Out of the park that is. Fortunately for Boston, this team is still stacked with power hitters. The left side of the Sox infield may not be the best in terms of fielding, but Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers are 120+ wRC+ hitters with plenty of pop. And here’s some more good news for Boston – I have yet to see any indication that either of these Red Sox lifers will slow down in 2021. They’ll make a run at the 30-homer plateau again, as will designated hitter JD Martinez. After smashing 124 home runs in 2017-2019, JD struggled mightily in last year’s abbreviated season. Although I highly doubt we see him deliver another 150 wRC+ output, you can bank on him returning to form with a .275 average and 30 homers.
The bottom of Boston’s lineup is full of new faces to the club. Renfroe, Cordero, and Hernandez join up-and-comer first baseman Bobby Dalbec. The Sox handed Dalbec the job after first baseman Mitch Moreland was shipped to San Diego mid-season – and boy did he deliver. In just 23 games, the 25-year-old slashed .263/.359/.600 for a 152 wRC+. Even if the kid is a very capable substitute for Moreland, it’s very difficult to go completely all-in on him based on this limited work.
For starters, Dalbec’s .394 BABIP indicates that his brief 2020 MLB debut was more indicative of a lengthy hot streak. Plus you have to consider how dangerous a 42.4% strikeout rate can be. But don’t get me wrong – I certainly see the upside with this talented young hitter. If his strikeouts don’t submarine his season, Dalbec should get close to the 30-home run mark even if it comes with a .230 average. So after piecing the whole lineup together, I see a very good offense getting a tick better and an average defense taking a step backwards.
Rotation
So, how did the Red Sox address one of the worst rotations in the majors? The front office started by re-signing Martin Perez to a one-year deal. Perez was pretty meh in his Boston debut last year, primarily due to a spike in his line drive and fly ball rates. That’s not a great attribute for Martin to develop at this point in his career, especially in a park like Fenway. In the same vein, O’Holloran brought in free agent Garrett Richards to fill a mid-rotation slot. Although he struggled to complete a full season after back-to-back big years in 2014 & 2015, Richards regained respectability with the Padres in 2020. Both Garrett and Perez aren’t the best fits for pitching in Fenway Park, though – injuries aside – they should both be good enough to combine for a 3 WAR season and produce mid-to-high 4.00s FIPs.
Putting the Pieces Together
Fortunately, Eduardo Rodriguez is back with the club after recovering from myocarditis, which is some really scary stuff. The big lefty was on a great trajectory through the 2019 season until taking last season off to deal with this condition. E-Rod, a very capable #2 starter or even ace, appears to be back to full strength and is chomping at the bit to return to action. The Sox need him badly to pair with a solid, but home run-prone, Nathan Eovaldi atop their rotation. Eovaldi’s pitch velocities and hard hit rates were fairly stable last season, driving the realistic expectation for both Nathan and Eduardo to turn in low-4.00 FIPs and combine for a 4+ WAR season.
Also in the good news department, Chris Sale is expected to return in time to make 15-20 starts. The Sox desperately need their strikeout powerhouse to anchor the top of their rotation and minimize early-game deficits. I’m in the camp that expects Sale’s FIP to be in the low 3.00s, which should be good for 2+ WAR in a partial season. His return will help with Boston’s starting pitching depth situation, reducing their reliance on former Phillies Nick Pivetta or AAA prospects like Tanner Houck to limp them along. Those lower-rung starters have yet to sustain success at the major league level, especially in the highly-competitive AL East. This group should rise from bottom-of-the-barrel to slightly above average.
Bullpen
The jury is out on Boston’s biggest bullpen acquisition, Adam Ottavino. He was front and center in a rare trade between heated rivals Yankees and Red Sox after Ottavino fell out of favor with Aaron Boone in New York. Fortunately, Ottavino’s .375 BABIP alludes to an improvement in 2021 as long as his pitch velocities stabilize. Statcast data reveal last year’s struggles in terms of spikes in average exit velocity and hard hit rate. I still think it is reasonable to expect positive regression in these factors, leading to an upper-3.00s FIP that will suit the setup man well.
Ottavino joins a very capable closer in Matt Barnes and incoming journeyman Matt Andriese to form an experienced late-inning unit. After three years of excellent relief work, Barnes disappointed last season with inopportune long balls (1.57 HR/9) and too many walks in high-leverage situations. Andriese’s last two seasons with the Diamondbacks and Angels demonstrated his growth as a reliable reliever who can make spot starts in a pinch. Throw in former Japanese import/export Ryan Brasier and projections for the back end of this Red Sox bullpen appear to be quite respectable.
Unfortunately, their middle relief’s inexperience could weigh heavily on Boston’s late-game outcomes. But I could make that statement for most MLB bullpens, so no need to punish the entire group’s projections too harshly based on their bottom five. Just don’t expect too much from these unknown quantities and have faith in manager Alex Cora’s ability to minimize their impact in close games. The bullpen as a whole is positioned much better this season with the key additions of Ottavino and Andriese, even if neither of the two return to peak performance. Even though any cluster injuries to Boston’s top four relievers could revert them back to being a bottom-third bullpen, I expect them to climb back to league average in 2021.
2021 AL East Projected Standings
- New York Yankees (101-61)
- Toronto Blue Jays (92-70)
- Tampa Bay Rays (84-78)
- Boston Red Sox (83-79)
- Baltimore Orioles (59-103)
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